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Gold

Gold prices declined 1.01% to Rs.1,59,969, as investors opted for profit booking amid renewed trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty. Fresh reports suggest the U.S. administration is considering additional national security tariffs under Section 232, separate from the recently announced 15% global levy. The tariff developments, along with Europe signaling a pause in trade deal ratification and India delaying negotiations with Washington, have added another layer of uncertainty to global markets. On the physical front, Swiss gold exports fell 8% month-on-month in January, mainly due to a sharp drop in shipments to the UK. However, exports to China and India rebounded to 23 tons each. Domestic demand in India remained subdued as volatile prices kept buyers on the sidelines, with dealers offering discounts of up to $18 per ounce. While gold ETFs saw strong inflows in January — with Indian ETF investments more than doubling — demand has softened this month. China’s gold production rose 3.35% in 2025, while consumption declined 3.57%, reflecting weaker jewellery demand but strong investment buying. The country also continued adding to its gold reserves for the 14th straight month. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 3.11%. Support is seen at Rs.1,58,425, below which prices may test Rs.1,56,880. Resistance stands at Rs.1,61,375, with a move above targeting Rs.1,62,780.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 156880-162780.

* Gold fell as investors booked profits amid renewed trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

* US President Donald Trump's administration is considering new national security tariffs on a half-dozen industries.

* The Shanghai Gold Exchange has lowered margin requirements for Gold contracts to 18% from 21%.

Silver

Silver slipped 1.73% to Rs.2,60,744, as profit-taking and a firmer U.S. dollar pressured prices. Traders remained cautious, awaiting clearer signals on U.S. tariff policy and monitoring rising tensions between Washington and Tehran ahead of another round of nuclear talks in Geneva. Stronger U.S. labor data added to the mixed sentiment. Private employers increased hiring momentum in early February, marking the fastest pace since late November. At the same time, comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggesting the possibility of structurally higher unemployment due to AI adoption added a longer-term economic dimension to policy expectations. Markets are also weighing the impact of the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down certain U.S. tariffs, even as fresh proposals for higher levies remain on the table. On the physical side, supply tightness continues to offer underlying support. SHFE silver inventories have dropped to around 350 tonnes — the lowest level in nearly a decade — down more than 88% from their 2021 peak. London vault holdings also edged lower month-on-month, indicating a gradual drawdown in global stocks. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 21.93%. Immediate support is seen at Rs.2,53,450, with a break below targeting Rs.2,46,160. Resistance stands at Rs.2,68,080, and a move above could test Rs.2,75,420.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 246160-275420.

* Silver retreated as profit taking and a firmer dollar weighed on the market, while traders awaited clarity on U.S. tariff plans.

* US private employers added an average of 12,750 jobs per week in the four weeks, up from a revised 11,500 in the previous period.

* Iran and the U.S. will hold a third round of nuclear talks on Thursday in Geneva.

Crude

Crude oil ended the session lower, slipping 0.61% to settle at 6008, as traders stayed cautious ahead of the third round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva. The market is closely watching these discussions for any signals that could impact supply. On the production side, North Dakota’s output declined by 76,000 barrels per day to 1.122 million bpd in December. Meanwhile, Libya resumed production at the Sinawan oilfield in the Nalut region, restoring around 20,000 bpd after a suspension of more than three years. Major institutions have updated their outlooks. UBS expects Brent to trade in the $60–70 per barrel range, setting a March 2027 forecast of $67 and widening the WTI-Brent spread assumption. Goldman Sachs also raised its fourth-quarter forecasts, citing low inventories across OECD pricing hubs. Supporting that view, U.S. crude inventories fell sharply by 9.014 million barrels last week, with additional draws seen in gasoline and distillates. The International Energy Agency lifted its 2026 global demand growth forecast to 930,000 bpd, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects a modest decline in U.S. output after 2025. Technically, the market shows fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 7.21% to 16,426. Immediate support is seen at 5952, followed by 5896. Resistance stands at 6092, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 6176.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5896-6176.

* Crude oil dropped as traders look ahead to a third round of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran on Thursday in Geneva.

* North Dakota oil production down 76,000 bpd in December vs November to 1,122,000 bpd

* Libya restarts production at Sinawan oilfield after over three – year halt

Natural gas

Natural gas prices fell 2.24% to settle at 262.1, pressured by near-record production levels and forecasts calling for milder weather and lower heating demand next week. Output across the Lower 48 states has averaged 108.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January and not far from December’s record 109.7 bcfd. Weather models suggest temperatures will remain mostly above normal through at least March 5, reducing near-term consumption needs. Storage levels remain somewhat tight, with inventories about 5–6% below the five-year average and 2.8% under year-ago levels. However, analysts expect the current deficit to narrow significantly by early March. For the week ended February 13, utilities withdrew 144 bcf from storage, broadly in line with seasonal expectations, following a hefty 249 bcf draw the previous week during an Arctic blast. Meanwhile, total demand, including exports, is projected to rise from 125.2 bcfd this week to 133.1 bcfd next week. LNG feedgas flows are also strong, averaging 18.6 bcfd in February, on track to surpass December’s record. Looking ahead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expects production to climb to fresh highs in 2026 and 2027, while demand remains largely steady. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest jumping 34.25% to 21,627. Support is seen at 258.9, with further downside toward 255.7. Resistance stands at 266.7, and a move above that could open the door to 271.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 255.7-271.3.

* Natural gas eased on near-record daily output and forecasts for milder weather.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 108.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January.

* LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, would rise from 125.2 bcfd this week to 133.1 bcfd next week.

Copper

Copper edged up 0.15% to settle at 1199.1, supported by renewed buying interest as traders in mainland China returned from the extended Lunar New Year break. Still, gains remained capped amid fresh trade uncertainty after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s emergency tariffs, prompting him to propose a temporary 15% tariff on imports. Meanwhile, LME warehouse stocks have climbed to 243,175 tons, the highest since March 2025, up roughly 70% this year. The cash copper contract continues to trade at a $100 discount to the three-month forward, indicating comfortable near-term supply. On the supply side, output disruptions offered some support. Chile’s Collahuasi and Escondida mines reported year-on-year production declines in December, while Peru’s copper output also fell. However, globally the refined market remains in surplus, with the International Copper Study Group reporting a 94,000-ton surplus in November. In China, refined copper production rose strongly in December, though unwrought copper imports for 2025 dropped 6.4% to their lowest since 2020. Looking ahead, China plans to expand strategic copper reserves, and Cochilco expects prices to average $4.95 per pound this year. Technically, fresh buying is visible with open interest up 20% to 15,566. Support is seen at 1186.6, followed by 1174, while resistance stands at 1211.7. A move above this could test 1224.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1174-1224.2.

* Copper prices ended with gains on some buying support as traders in mainland China returned from the extended Lunar New Year holiday.

* Copper stocks in LME warehouses rose to 243,175 tons, the highest since March 2025, having surged 70% so far this year.

* JP Morgan forecasts copper prices of $13,500/t in Q2’26 and $13,000/t in Q3’26

Zinc

Zinc prices rose 0.64% to settle at 328.3, supported by improved sentiment as Chinese markets reopened after the holiday break. The upside was also underpinned by ongoing supply tightness, with concerns lingering over mine disruptions and low inventory levels. Although zinc stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses increased 23.1% from last week, broader supply constraints continue to lend support. On the production front, some relief is emerging. Boliden’s Tara mine in Ireland has resumed operations after being shut since mid-2023, and Ivanhoe Mines’ Kipushi project in the Democratic Republic of Congo is ramping up steadily. However, temporary mine suspensions in parts of China are expected to trim concentrate supply in the near term. Goldman Sachs expects the global zinc market to shift into a small surplus this year as mine supply improves and concentrate destocking continues, while demand remains stable. China’s refined zinc output hit a record 675,000 metric tons in December, up 13.1% year on year, as smelters capitalized on stronger LME prices. For 2025, total production rose nearly 6% to 7.41 million tons. Globally, the market showed a modest surplus over the first eleven months of the year. Technically, fresh buying is evident with open interest rising 3.61% to 3,784. Support is seen at 325.7 and 323.1, while resistance stands at 331.7. A break above this level could push prices toward 335.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 323.1-335.1.

* Zinc prices rose propelled by positive sentiment in China, where markets reopened following a holiday.

* Support also seen as low inventories and mine closures, delays underpinned prices.

* Goldman Sachs expects the global zinc market to be in a small surplus this year.

Aluminium

Aluminium slipped 0.61% to settle at 309.85, as investors weighed uncertainty around U.S. tariff policy and the reopening of Chinese markets after the holiday break. Sentiment remained cautious, especially after reports suggested President Trump may scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminum products. At the same time, broader macro concerns lingered, with the IMF noting that weak domestic demand and slowing global growth pose risks to China’s outlook, even though the country met its 5% growth target in 2025. On the supply side, global primary aluminium output reached 6.317 million tons in January, up from a year earlier. WBMS data showed a 57,000-ton surplus in December. China’s production remains strong, hitting a record 3.87 million tons in December, while full-year output crossed 45 million tons despite the official capacity cap. Imports of unwrought aluminium also rose 7.1% year-on-year in December. Meanwhile, Century Aluminum plans to restart its Grundartangi smelter in Iceland ahead of schedule, though supply risks persist with South32 placing its Mozal plant into care and maintenance. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest up 9% to 4,007. Immediate support is seen at 308.6, followed by 307.2. Resistance stands at 312.5, and a move above that could push prices toward 315.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 307.2-315.

* Aluminium prices dropped as investors puzzled over the future of U.S. tariffs.

* Century Aluminum expects to resume operations at its Grundartangi smelter in Iceland by the end of April, six months ahead of its initial timeline.

* Global primary aluminum output reached 6.317 million tons in January, representing an increase from the 6.239 million tons – IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric prices rallied sharply, settling 3.27% higher at Rs.16,092, supported by below-normal arrivals and firm domestic as well as export demand. Farmers and stockists have reportedly reduced inventories significantly, tightening near-term availability ahead of fresh crop arrivals. Weather disruptions in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka — including heavy rains and localized disease pressure — have affected yields in several pockets, adding to supply concerns. For the 2025–26 season, acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up around 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried output is estimated at 90 lakh bags, higher than last season’s 82.5 lakh bags, though lower carry-forward stocks are limiting the net increase in availability. Maharashtra alone is expected to produce 54 lakh bags despite localized yield losses. Export demand remains steady, particularly from Europe and the US, while imports have declined sharply during April–December. However, upside may be capped as arrivals in Erode are expected to pick up over the next two weeks, and higher acreage could expand supply later. Technically, the market shows fresh buying interest, with open interest up 1.77%. Immediate support is seen at Rs.15,568, with a break toward Rs.15,042. Resistance stands at Rs.16,412, and a move above could test Rs.16,730.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15042-16730.

* Turmeric gained as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks, providing a base for the market ahead of the new crop supply.

* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15546.25 Rupees dropped by -1.7 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices ended almost flat, slipping marginally by 0.02% to Rs.22,715, as the arrival of the new crop in select mandis kept sentiment cautious. Arrivals are expected to gather pace from March, which has added some near-term pressure. Comfortable supplies and subdued export interest have also weighed on the market, with current overseas demand largely being met from existing stocks. That said, downside appears limited. Sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% year-on-year at 4.08 lakh hectares, and national production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Rajasthan has also reported rising aphid infestation risks. In Unjha, arrivals remain tight, and quality produce continues to fetch premium prices. Logistical and weather-related disruptions in the Middle East, along with lower output estimates in countries like China and Syria, are keeping global supplies relatively constrained.  Export data, however, remains soft. April–December shipments are down over 12% year-on-year, reflecting weak global buying interest.  Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest up 1.65%. Immediate support is seen at Rs.22,440, with a break toward Rs.22,160. Resistance stands at Rs.22,980, and a move above could push prices toward Rs.23,240.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 22160-23240.

* Jeera settled flat as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* Arrivals are expected to pick up full pace from March onwards.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22315.95 Rupees gained by 0.12 percent.

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