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2025-07-01 12:52:21 pm | Source: Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Gold Bull Run: We Call It Quits.. - Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Gold Bull Run: We Call It Quits.. - Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

* We've seen an impressive rally in gold prices and were fortunate to have been part of this uptrend since 2019.

We adopted a bullish stance early on, around ~Rs. 30,000, targeting ~Rs. 50,000, and have stayed invested since then.

* Throughout this period, we've consistently reiterated our outlook in our Gold Quarterly and annual reports, steadily raising our targets.

* Last year, we issued four quarterly updates and one annual report-all of which exceeded their projections

* More recently, we released a report anticipating levels near ~Rs. 98,000, which nearly reached its stated targetof Rs. 1,02,000.

* Several drivers have fueled this rally, many of which we believe are already reflected in prices:

* Risk premium from geopolitical tensions has eased, especially among Israel-Iran and Russia -Ukraine relations

* Trade-related uncertainties are subsiding as tariff disputes calm down

* Expectations of rate cuts are delayed which otherwise could have lifted prices further

* Central banks continue to buy gold, though the overall quantity has decreased significantly

* Dollar index is dropping quickly, while de-dollarization trends are gaining momentum

* Expected appreciation in USDINR can be a major factor influencing domestic prices

* Some signs of market fatigue are also emerging at these higher levels

* For gold prices to advance further, the market now requires fresh, significant catalysts

* So far, we've witnessed gains exceeding 30%, and historical data over the past 25 years shows that Comex gold has never achieved more than 32% returns in a single year

* At this stage, we need to wait for more clarity or a decisive trigger, so a period of consolidation may be appropriate

* Should any longer-term triggers emerge, we would consider re-entering to continue our successful run.

* Tactical traders holding long positions may consider hedging or exiting on sustained close below Rs.96,000.

 

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