Gold Bull Run: We Call It Quits.. - Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd

* We've seen an impressive rally in gold prices and were fortunate to have been part of this uptrend since 2019.
* We adopted a bullish stance early on, around ~Rs. 30,000, targeting ~Rs. 50,000, and have stayed invested since then.
* Throughout this period, we've consistently reiterated our outlook in our Gold Quarterly and annual reports, steadily raising our targets.
* Last year, we issued four quarterly updates and one annual report-all of which exceeded their projections
* More recently, we released a report anticipating levels near ~Rs. 98,000, which nearly reached its stated targetof Rs. 1,02,000.
* Several drivers have fueled this rally, many of which we believe are already reflected in prices:
* Risk premium from geopolitical tensions has eased, especially among Israel-Iran and Russia -Ukraine relations
* Trade-related uncertainties are subsiding as tariff disputes calm down
* Expectations of rate cuts are delayed which otherwise could have lifted prices further
* Central banks continue to buy gold, though the overall quantity has decreased significantly
* Dollar index is dropping quickly, while de-dollarization trends are gaining momentum
* Expected appreciation in USDINR can be a major factor influencing domestic prices
* Some signs of market fatigue are also emerging at these higher levels
* For gold prices to advance further, the market now requires fresh, significant catalysts
* So far, we've witnessed gains exceeding 30%, and historical data over the past 25 years shows that Comex gold has never achieved more than 32% returns in a single year
* At this stage, we need to wait for more clarity or a decisive trigger, so a period of consolidation may be appropriate
* Should any longer-term triggers emerge, we would consider re-entering to continue our successful run.
* Tactical traders holding long positions may consider hedging or exiting on sustained close below Rs.96,000.
For More Research Reports : Click Here
For More Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd Disclaimer
http://www.motilaloswal.com/MOSLdisclaimer/disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number is INH00000041










Tag News

Gold firms on weaker dollar and US tariff, fiscal uncertainty


