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The USDA’s June update keeps 2025/26 U.S. soybean supply, use, and prices unchanged, with the average price forecast at $10.25 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil are projected at $310/short ton and 46 cents/lb, respectively. Globally, beginning stocks are higher due to reduced Chinese crush estimates for the prior year. The 2025/26 global soybean crush rises slightly, led by increased demand in Pakistan, South Africa, and the UK. With exports steady, global ending stocks climb to 125.3 million tons. Additionally, palm oil production forecasts for Malaysia are raised, reflecting recovery after early-year flooding. These trends may influence global oilseed market dynamics.

Key Highlights

# U.S. soybean prices steady at $10.25/bushel for 2025/26.

# Global soybean stocks up 1 million tons to 125.3 million.

# China’s prior-year crush estimate reduced, raising global carryover.

# Higher 2025/26 crush seen in Pakistan, South Africa, UK.

# Malaysian palm oil output revised up post-flood recovery.

In the latest USDA report, the U.S. soybean outlook for the 2025/26 marketing year remains unchanged. The season-average farm price is steady at $10.25 per bushel, with soybean meal projected at $310 per short ton and soybean oil at 46 cents per pound. This signals stability in the domestic oilseed market amid balanced supply-demand expectations.

On the global front, notable adjustments were made. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 were revised upward by 1 million tons, primarily due to a downward revision in China's crush for the prior year, reflecting a slower-than-expected pace. While global production remains unchanged, crush is slightly higher by 0.1 million tons, with additional demand projected in Pakistan, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.

Despite no change in export estimates, this marginally increased consumption was outpaced by the beginning stock adjustment, lifting global ending stocks to 125.3 million tons—a signal of slight bearish pressure if supplies continue outpacing demand.

Another development to watch is the revised palm oil production in Malaysia, where the 2024/25 and 2025/26 forecasts have been increased. This revision reflects an anticipated rebound following flood-related disruptions earlier in the year, which had temporarily hampered output.

Overall, while U.S. figures remain unchanged, global developments—particularly in China and Malaysia—could influence the broader oilseed and vegetable oil markets in the months ahead.

Finally

With steady U.S. outlook and rising global stocks, the oilseed market could see mixed price action ahead, especially as global consumption and palm oil recovery unfold.

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