IGI Logo

Global soybean market witnesses production adjustments with decreases in Brazil and South Africa, offset by rises in rapeseed output in India, Russia, and Ukraine. Increased exports from Brazil and Ukraine lead to higher global shipments, while reduced ending stocks reflect changes in supply and demand dynamics.

Highlights

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Outlook: The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use remains unchanged for 2023/24. While soybean crush remains steady, slight increases in soybean meal extraction rate and higher soybean meal exports are offset by lower domestic use. Soybean prices are unchanged, but soybean oil price is reduced to 49 cents per pound.

Global Oilseed Production: Global 2023/24 oilseed production is reduced to 658.7 million tons, with lower soybean and sunflowerseed production partly offset by higher rapeseed. Sunflowerseed production decreases due to lower output in South Africa, while rapeseed production increases in India, Russia, and Ukraine.

Global Soybean Production: Global soybean production for 2023/24 decreases by 1.4 million tons due to lower production in Brazil and South Africa. Brazil's soybean production is lowered to 155 million tons, influenced by harvest results in Parana and adverse weather in São Paulo, offset by favorable conditions in other regions. South African soybean production is reduced to 2.1 million tons due to lower yield prospects.

Global Supply and Demand Forecasts: Lower beginning stocks, production, crush, higher exports, and lower ending stocks are forecasted compared to last month. Beginning stocks decrease by 1.4 million tons, mainly due to historical crush and import revisions for China. Soybean crush for China is raised for 2020/21 to 2022/23 based on in-country estimates and supplies. Soybean imports for China for 2022/23 are also raised based on shipping data by major exporters.

Global Crush and Exports: Global crush decreases for Brazil and South Africa due to lower supplies, and Ukraine's crush decreases due to higher soybean exports. Global soybean exports increase by 3.0 million tons due to higher shipments from Brazil and Ukraine.

Soybean Ending Stocks: Global soybean ending stocks decrease by 1.8 million tons to 114.3 million, with lower stocks for Brazil partly offset by higher Chinese stocks.

Conclusion

The global soybean market undergoes significant shifts in production and trade, with Brazil and South Africa experiencing production decreases while other regions like India, Russia, and Ukraine see output rises. Despite challenges such as adverse weather conditions and historical revisions, higher exports from key players like Brazil and Ukraine buoy the market. However, reduced ending stocks, particularly in Brazil, underscore the need for continued monitoring of supply and demand dynamics to navigate market volatility effectively.

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer