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USD/INR

Market Commentary:

* The Dollar index remained a bit muted and traded in a range against the peers as the traders wait for the inflation data, to get a gauge of the rate path. Domestic demand for the Dollar, pushed the USDINR pair higher.

* On the Daily chart, the pair opened in a negative note and drifted higher. Price action suggests selling around the 83.55 zone (suspected RBI intervention). Technically, the pair is expected to find resistance around the 83.70 handle followed by 83.90. The immediate support for the pair is placed near 83.30-83.10.

* The weekly stochastic indicator is placed in the overbought zone, while on the daily chart it is nearing the overbought regime.

* Notable strikes set for expiration today are 84.10.

* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 5.1% probability that the pair will breach above 83.70 while there is a 4.2% chance that it will breach below 83.30

EUR/INR

Market Commentary:

* There is a general expectation that the ECB might start cutting rate before most of the major central banks, consequently putting a lot of pressure of EURUSD. In the early Asian trading hours the pair printed a low of 1.073. The EURINR pair opened on a negative note and followed the USDINR and drifted higher.

* The pair is expected to find support around the ~89.55 mark (13 and 21 day moving average cluster point). The immediate resistance is placed near 90.00, followed by 90.30.

* The daily stochastic oscillator is placed in the extremely overbought regime while the 20 Day Z-score of the difference between the 8 and 21 day moving average, inches closer to the overbought zone.

* Notable strikes set to expire today for EUR/USD lie at 1.0720, 1.0745, 1.0770.

* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 10.2% chance that the pair will breach above 90.15 today while there is a 9.8% probability that it will breach below 89.41.

GBP/INR

Market Commentary:

* GBP/USD saw a slight decline on Tuesday ahead of the Bank of England's policy announcement scheduled for Thursday. Markets adjusted to fully incorporate expectations of two quarter-point rate cuts later this year. GBPINR bounced off the 104.12 level and settled at 104.33.

* Technically, the psychological level of 104.00 is expected to act as a support, beyond which we might see the pair move lower towards the 103.80 zone. The immediate resistance is placed near 104.60, followed by 105.00.

* The daily stochastic indicator has formed a bearish crossover, but continues to remain above the overbought zone. The 20 period Z-score of the 8 and 21 day moving averages, are currently placed near the overbought regime.

* Notable strikes set to expire today for GBP/USD lie at 1.2420, 1.2500, 1.2525, 1.2530.

* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 9.9% probability that the pair will breach above 104.90, while there is a 8.2% probability that it will breach below 103.75.

JPY/INR

Market Commentary:

* The traders focusing on the interest rate differential has put a lot of pressure on the Yen, consequently pushing the USDJPY pair higher above the 155.50 handle. JPYINR opened on a negative note moved below the 54.00 handle

* The immediate support for the pair lies around 0.5350, followed by 0.5330. The previous session high of 0.5403 is expected to act as a resistance, followed by 0.5450.

* The daily Stochastic oscillator and the 20 period Z-score of the difference of 8, and 21 period moving average is moving closer to the overbought zone.

* Notable strikes set to expire today are at 154.30,155.00,155.85 and 156.00.

* Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 10% probability that the pair will breach above 0.5408 or below 0.5334.

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