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Gold

Gold prices settled down by -0.13% at 76,045 as a stronger-than-expected US jobs report tempered market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Nonfarm payrolls for September surged by 254,000, well above the anticipated 140,000 increase, while the unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly to 4.1%. This robust data has prompted markets to price out the likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in November, with an 85% chance now assigned to a more modest 25-basis-point reduction, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. Investors are now focusing on upcoming key events, including the release of the Fed meeting minutes, the consumer price index report, and speeches from Fed officials, to further guide rate expectations. Meanwhile, central banks reported lower-than-expected net gold purchases in August, likely due to high bullion prices, though there was no significant rise in selling, suggesting sovereign buying may only be paused. In China, gold demand saw a boost during the National Day holiday, while in India, demand improved slightly ahead of the festival season but remained subdued due to record-high prices. Indian dealers increased discounts to $21 per ounce, up from last week's $19, reflecting cautious stock-building by jewelers. Globally, gold demand remains weak, with discounts persisting in markets like Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan. Technically, the gold market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by -3.46% to 15,744 contracts. Prices declined by 98, with support now seen at 75,810. A break below this level could lead to a test of 75,580, while resistance is expected at 76,300, and a move above this could push prices towards 76,560 in the near term.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 75580-76560.
* Gold dropped as a solid US jobs report tempered expectations for Fed interest rate cuts.
* US jobs report exceeded expectations with 254,000 growth
* Unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%

Silver

Silver prices settled down by -1.06% at 92,357, as strong U.S. labor market data reduced the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. Labor Department reported that the economy added 254,000 jobs in September, significantly surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate dipped unexpectedly to 4.1% from 4.2%. This robust jobs report tempered market expectations for more aggressive monetary easing by the Fed, leading to decreased demand for non-yielding assets like silver. Additionally, the data showed that there were 72,000 more jobs added in July and August than previously reported, indicating the economy’s resilience and easing concerns about a potential economic slowdown. Meanwhile, India’s silver imports are on track to nearly double this year due to rising demand from solar panel and electronics manufacturers, along with investors viewing silver as a better return option compared to gold. In the first half of 2024, India imported 4,554 metric tons of silver, a sharp increase from 560 tons a year earlier. With depleted inventories from 2023, industrial buyers have been stockpiling silver to hedge against rising prices, further supporting global price levels. On the technical front, silver is undergoing long liquidation, with open interest declining by -0.64% to 25,605 contracts. The market has immediate support at 91,455, and a break below could see prices testing the 90,550 level. On the upside, resistance is expected at 93,285, and a move above that could lead to prices testing 94,210. The upcoming economic data releases and market sentiment will be crucial in determining silver’s next move.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 90550-94210.
* Silver dropped following indications of a strong US labor market.
* Upbeat US NFP report eased concerns about economic slowdown.
* US Unemployment rate dips to 4.1% unexpectedly

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged by 2.15%, closing at 6,475, as investors grew concerned over a potential escalation in the Middle East that could disrupt crude supplies. President Joe Biden's remarks about discussions of an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities heightened fears of a broader conflict in the region. This speculation has raised concerns about potential retaliation from Iran, which could impact global oil supply. Despite the concerns, OPEC's spare capacity could compensate for the loss of Iranian supply if Israel targets the country's oil infrastructure. Kazakhstan's largest oil-output cuts under the OPEC+ agreement, due to scheduled maintenance at the Kashagan field in October, also contributed to the upward pressure on prices. However, OPEC officials reassured markets, stating that global crude supplies remain unaffected by the ongoing unrest, with sufficient capacity to stabilize the market if necessary. In the U.S., crude oil inventories rose by 3.889 million barrels in the week ending September 27, 2024, against expectations of a 1.3 million barrel decline. Additionally, stocks at the Cushing delivery hub increased by 0.840 million barrels, and gasoline inventories climbed by 1.119 million barrels. On the flip side, distillate stockpiles, including diesel, dropped by 1.284 million barrels, slightly below the forecasted decrease. On the technical side, crude oil is experiencing short covering, with open interest dropping by -2.82% to 14,153 contracts. Prices are currently supported at 6,305, and a break below could test 6,134. On the upside, resistance is seen at 6,571, and a move above that could drive prices to 6,666, indicating further potential volatility.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6134-6666.
* Crude oil prices rose as investors feared a wider Middle East conflict could disrupt crude flows.
* On the demand side, signs of a strong US economy have supported expectations for fuel demand.
* Libya’s oil production has resumed across all oilfields and export terminals, reinforcing the case for ample supply.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices fell by -4.2% to 230.2 due to a weaker demand outlook, despite a smaller-than-expected increase in storage levels reported in the latest federal data. Concerns over potential production disruptions eased as tropical storms moved away from the Gulf of Mexico. Baker Hughes reported a rise in the number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the U.S., increasing by 3 to 102 this week, further adding to bearish sentiment. Storage injections in July, August, and likely September were at record lows, according to federal data, but this hasn't been enough to offset the weaker demand outlook. U.S. gas production in the Lower 48 states averaged 101.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in early October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September, still below the December 2023 record of 105.5 bcfd. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas production is expected to decline slightly in 2024, while domestic consumption is projected to rise to a record 89.9 bcfd. U.S. utilities added 55 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ending September 27, 2024, below market expectations of 57 bcf, bringing total stockpiles to 3,547 bcf, 127 bcf higher than last year and above the five-year average. Technically, the market is experiencing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 12.48% to 28,540 contracts. Prices are supported at 225.8, and a break below could lead to testing 221.3. Resistance is seen at 236.9, and a move above that could push prices toward 243.5.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 221.3-243.5.
* Natural gas dropped on weaker demand outlook even utilities added a smaller-than-normal amount.
* The outlook for tropical storms to move away from the Gulf of Mexico, easing concern about a disruption.
* The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in US rose by 3 this week to 102.


Copper

Copper prices settled down by -0.18% at 853.85, driven by profit booking after recent gains fueled by hopes of improved demand following China’s stimulus measures. In September, China introduced several policies to boost economic growth, including lower interest rates, liquidity injections, and easing home purchase restrictions. Copper inventories in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to 141,625 tons by the end of September, marking the first rise since early July. This follows 12 consecutive weeks of stockpile declines, reflecting falling prices from the May high of $11,000 to around $8,700 in August. However, China entered its stronger consumption season in late September, prompting some stockpiling ahead of the National Day holiday. On the global front, the refined copper market posted a surplus of 91,000 metric tons in July, compared to 113,000 metric tons in June, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). For the first seven months of 2024, the market saw a surplus of 527,000 metric tons, a significant increase from the 79,000 metric tons surplus in the same period the previous year. Copper imports to China in August dropped to a 16-month low at 415,000 tons, a 12.3% decrease from the previous year, signaling weaker demand for the metal. Technically, the copper market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 2.56% to 8,888 contracts. Prices dropped by 1.5, with support seen at 845.6, and a break below this could test 837.3. On the upside, resistance is expected at 862.6, and a move above this level could push prices towards 871.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 837.3-871.3.
* Copper dropped on profit booking after prices gained after China's stimulus measures.
* SHFE Copper inventories rose to 141,625 tons on Sept. 30
* The LME cash copper contract was trading at a discount of $141.16 a ton against the three-month contract

Zinc

Zinc prices rose by 0.14% to 288.2, supported by China's economic stimulus measures aimed at bolstering the economy. These measures included liquidity injections, mortgage rate cuts, and easing home purchase restrictions, particularly targeting the country's struggling property market. China's central bank announced that banks would reduce mortgage rates for existing home loans before October 31, which added to the positive sentiment in the market. Additionally, zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) dropped to 79,980 metric tons, contributing to supply concerns. Despite these supportive measures, China's Caixin General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in September 2024, down from 50.4 in August, indicating contraction and missing market expectations of 50.5. This was the lowest level since July 2023, driven by a renewed downturn in new orders, which hit their lowest point in two years. On the supply side, the global refined zinc market is expected to face a 164,000 metric ton deficit in 2024 due to reduced output in Europe, particularly in Ireland and Portugal, and other key regions like China, Canada, and Peru. However, production increases in Australia, Mexico, and Congo may offset some of these declines. On the technical front, zinc is undergoing short covering, with open interest dropping by -0.3% to 3,706 contracts. Immediate support is seen at 286.3, and if prices fall below this level, they could test 284.2. On the upside, resistance is expected at 289.7, and a move above this could push prices toward 291, signaling potential further gains amid the supply-demand uncertainties.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 284.2-291.
* Zinc prices gained amid China’s economic stimulus measures
* The global refined zinc market could see a 164,000 metric ton deficit in 2024
* Zinc inventories in SHFE dropped to 79,980 metric tons on Monday.


Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled down by -0.16% at 242.5 due to profit booking after previous gains driven by China's economic support measures. Beijing announced a robust fiscal stimulus package following a special Politburo meeting focused on boosting the Chinese economy to achieve its 5% growth target. Earlier, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) introduced monetary stimulus, including rate cuts, a liquidity injection of CNY 1 trillion, and mortgage refinancing, which bolstered industrial demand expectations. In the aluminium market, risks surrounding alumina supply in China continued to provide upward pressure, exacerbated by earlier bauxite production issues in Guinea and Australia. The London Metal Exchange (LME) has also observed signs of tightness in the aluminium market, with the premium for the LME October contract over November widening to $18 per ton, reflecting potential supply concerns ahead of the contract’s expiry. On the supply side, China’s aluminium output in August hit its highest level since 2002, reaching 3.73 million metric tons, driven by higher prices and sustained profitability for smelters. The robust production was supported by strong hydropower supplies in Yunnan province. For the first eight months of 2024, China’s aluminium production rose by 5.1% to 28.91 million tons. Technically, the aluminium market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling by -1.98% to 3,274 contracts. Prices dipped by 0.4, with support now seen at 240.9, and a break below this could lead to testing 239.2. On the upside, resistance is expected at 243.6, and a move above this level could push prices towards 244.6 in the short term.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 239.2-244.6.
* Aluminium fell on profit booking after prices gained amid China’s economic support measures.
* The premium of LME October aluminium over November hit $18 a metric ton from a premium of $5.85 about three weeks ago.
* Global aluminium surplus seen at 200,000-300,000 T in 2025


Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices settled down by -0.72% at 56,840 amid moderate demand and weak export activity, particularly to Bangladesh. However, the downside was limited due to hopes for a revival in demand from China following recent stimulus measures and concerns over potential crop damage in key growing areas from Hurricane Helene. The USDA has lowered India’s cotton production forecast for the 2024-25 season to 30.72 million bales, with ending stocks reduced to 12.38 million bales due to crop damage from excessive rains and pest issues. Additionally, cotton acreage in the current Kharif season has dropped by 9% compared to last year. India’s cotton exports for the 2023-24 crop year are estimated to be 80% higher at 28 lakh bales, driven by demand from countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) estimates that exports till August reached 27 lakh bales, while imports increased to 16.4 lakh bales from 12.5 lakh bales the previous year. The CAI also projects closing stocks of 23.32 lakh bales as of September 30, 2024, down from 28.9 lakh bales a year earlier. The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 also shows lower production, exports, and ending stocks due to reduced yields in the Southwest. On the global front, the cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 sees reductions in production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks, with world production lowered by 1.2 million bales due to smaller crops in the U.S., India, and Pakistan. Technically, the market is experiencing fresh selling with open interest rising by 0.81% to 124 contracts. Prices declined by 410, with support now seen at 56,590, and a break below this level could test 56,340. Resistance is expected at 57,000, and a move above this could push prices to 57,160.
Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56340-57160.
* Cotton dropped amid moderate demand, with weak export activity, particularly to Bangladesh.
* Cotton exports for the 2023-24 crop year or season ending September are estimated at about 80 per cent at 28 lakh bales
* The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2024/25 shows lower production, exports, and ending stocks compared to last month.
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices rose by 2.52% to 13,688, driven by reports of crop damage due to heavy rains in key growing areas like Nanded and Hingoli. These reports suggest that losses could be much higher than initially estimated. However, the price rise was somewhat limited due to lower demand and increasing arrivals in the market. Total arrivals were reported at 14,915 bags, lower than the previous session's 16,975 bags, with Sangli’s arrivals particularly impacted, dropping sharply from 11,000 to just 890 bags. With five months still left for the turmeric harvest, low supply and unfavorable weather conditions could continue to push prices higher in the coming weeks. However, the upside may remain capped due to increased sowing activities in key regions like Erode, Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, where sowing is estimated to be 30-35% higher than last year. While Indonesia is seeing accelerated harvesting due to dry weather, rising acreage and weaker export demand could further exert downward pressure on prices. Despite these concerns, the lower production in India from last year and declining stock levels will likely support turmeric prices in the longer term. In 2025, the turmeric crop is expected to be around 70-75 lakh bags, with little carry-over stock, indicating a supply deficit compared to consumption. On the technical front, turmeric is seeing short covering, with open interest dropping by -15.38% to 9,655 contracts. Support is seen at 13,162, and if breached, prices could test 12,634. On the upside, resistance is at 14,052, and a move above this could see prices testing 14,414, indicating potential volatility ahead.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12634-14414.
* Turmeric gains amid reports of crop damage due to heavy rains.
* However upside seen limited due to lower demand amid a rise in arrivals.
* Turmeric sowing on the Erode line is reported to be double as compared to last year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14120.15 Rupees dropped by -0.84 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled up by 1.03% at 26,605 amid strong domestic and export demand, coupled with tight global supplies. Farmers are holding back their stocks in anticipation of better prices, which further supported the market. However, the upside is capped by expectations of higher production this season. Jeera production in India is expected to rise by 30% to 8.5-9 lakh tonnes due to a substantial increase in the sowing area. Gujarat's sowing area increased by 104%, while Rajasthan's grew by 16%. Globally, cumin production has also seen significant growth, with China doubling its output to 55-60 thousand tonnes. Increased production is also expected in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, which could add downward pressure on prices as new supplies enter the market. India's cumin exports saw a volatile period in 2023, with domestic prices soaring, but exports during April-July 2024 rose by 58.31% compared to the same period in 2023. July 2024 exports reached 17,403.93 tonnes, a 110.15% rise from July 2023. With international prices declining and increased sowing in India, exports are expected to rise further, reaching 14-15 thousand tonnes by February 2024. Favorable weather conditions, including above-average rainfall in August and September, could also support higher farm output. Technically, the jeera market is under short covering, with a significant drop in open interest by 21.63% to 1,185 contracts. Prices gained 270, with support now seen at 26,390, and a break below this level could test 26,170. Resistance is expected at 26,750, and a move above this could push prices to 26,890 in the near term.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 26170-26890.
* Jeera gains amid robust domestic and export demand besides tight global supplies.
* However upside seen limited as the expectation of higher production weighed on the prices. cent.
* Turkey anticipates producing 12-15 thousand tons, while Afghanistan's output could double.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26352.7 Rupees gained by 0.2 percent.

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