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Gold 

Gold climbed 1.33% to settle at 156,876, as rising geopolitical tensions and fresh trade measures lifted safe-haven demand. U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on imports from all countries and warned Iran to reach a nuclear agreement within 10–15 days, intensifying global uncertainty. The heightened risk backdrop supported bullion despite firm U.S. economic data. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran pushed back against aggressive rate-cut expectations, citing resilient data. Initial jobless claims fell to 206,000, and January FOMC minutes revealed policymakers remain divided, with some open to further tightening if inflation persists. On the physical side, Swiss gold exports declined 8% in January as shipments to the UK dropped sharply, though flows to China and India increased ahead of the Lunar New Year. In India, volatile prices kept retail demand subdued, with dealers offering discounts of up to $18 per ounce. However, ETF inflows remained strong in January. China’s gold production rose modestly in 2025, while overall consumption dipped, reflecting weaker jewellery demand but robust investment buying. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 3.02%. Support is seen at 155,380 and 153,880, while resistance stands at 157,890; a move above could test 158,900.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 153880-158900.

* Gold rose as U.S. military buildup in the Middle East and potential Iran strike fears boosted demand.

* U.S. President Donald Trump said he has signed documents to impose a 10% tariff on imports from all countries, which will be "effective almost immediately."

* Goldman Sachs sees gold prices to grind higher to $5,400/toz by end – 2026

Silver 

Silver surged 4.79% to settle at 252,944, supported by rising geopolitical tensions and relatively thin Asian trading volumes that amplified the move. The rally also drew strength from mixed signals in the latest FOMC minutes, which showed policymakers divided on the rate path, with some warning that further hikes may be needed if inflation stays sticky. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy grew at an annualized 1.4% in Q4 2025, slowing sharply from 4.4% in Q3 and missing expectations. Consumer spending moderated, while the core PCE index rose 0.4% in December, underscoring persistent inflation pressures. On the physical side, supply tightness is becoming more visible. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to around 350 tonnes, the lowest level since 2015, and down more than 88% from the 2021 peak. This sharp drawdown highlights growing strain in exchange-held stocks. In London, vault holdings stood at 27,729 tonnes at the end of January, slightly lower month-on-month. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.71% alongside a sharp price gain. Immediate support is seen at 244,535, with further support at 236,125. Resistance is placed at 258,065, and a sustained move above this level could open the door toward 263,185.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 236125-263185.

* Silver prices rallied supported by rising geopolitical tensions and thin trading volumes in Asia.

* The US economy expanded an annualized 1.4% in Q4 2025, the least since Q1 2025, following a 4.4% growth in Q3.

* FOMC minutes revealed policymakers were split on the rate outlook, with some signaling further hikes could be warranted.

Crude oil

Crude oil ended nearly flat, slipping 0.02% to settle at 6,057, as traders booked profits after a recent rise driven by geopolitical tensions. Concerns escalated after Washington warned Tehran of consequences if it failed to agree to a nuclear deal within days, keeping risk premiums intact. At the same time, falling U.S. inventories lent support. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed declines in crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks, while official figures indicated a sharp 9 million-barrel draw in crude inventories, along with sizeable drops at Cushing and in fuel stockpiles. However, upside remained capped by supply-side considerations. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are reportedly leaning toward resuming output increases from April. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency continues to project a surplus in 2026, even after slightly raising its global demand growth estimate to 930,000 bpd. China’s imports of discounted Russian crude are also set to hit a record high in February, highlighting ample global flows. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects U.S. production to ease after peaking in 2025. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest up 10.46%. Support is seen at 5,994 and 5,931, while resistance stands at 6,118; a move above could target 6,179.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5931-6179.

* Crude oil settled flat on profit booking after prices after President Trump set a deadline for Iran to reach a nuclear agreement.

* Markets were also considering the impact of ample supply, with talks of OPEC+ leaning towards a resumption in oil output increases from April.

* U.S. crude inventories dropped by 9 million barrels as refining utilisation and exports climbed, an EIA report showed.

Natural gas

Natural gas rose 2.17% to settle at 282.2, supported by near-record LNG export flows and updated forecasts calling for colder weather and stronger heating demand over the next two weeks. Flows to eight U.S. LNG export plants averaged 18.6 bcfd in February, close to December’s record levels, providing a solid demand base. That said, gains were capped by rising production and a storage draw that was broadly in line with seasonal norms. Output in the Lower 48 states has averaged 108.7 bcfd so far this month, up from 106.3 bcfd in January and nearing December’s all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 144 bcf withdrawal for the week ended February 13, smaller than last year’s 182 bcf draw and slightly below the five-year average decline. Total inventories now stand at 2.070 tcf, about 5.6% below the five-year average, though analysts expect the deficit to narrow as milder weather limits demand. Looking ahead, the EIA projects dry gas production will climb to a record 110 bcfd in 2026, while demand holds steady around 91.6 bcfd. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 18.64%. Support is seen at 271.5 and 260.7, while resistance stands at 289.9; a breakout could push prices toward 297.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 260.7-297.5.

* Natural gas climbed on near-record LNG export flows and forecasts for colder weather

* EIA said energy firms pulled a slightly smaller-than-usual 144 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage.

* The withdrawal left stockpiles about 6% below normal for this time of year.

Copper

Copper edged up 0.68% to settle at 1,168.15, as investors bought the dip in thin trading conditions. However, the broader supply picture remains comfortable. Stocks in London Metal Exchange warehouses have risen for 26 consecutive sessions to an 11-month high, and combined inventories across Shanghai, London, and New York have crossed 1 million tons — the highest level since 2003. The LME cash contract trading at a $100 discount to the three-month contract also signals limited near-term tightness. On the macro front, Federal Reserve minutes suggested policymakers are in no hurry to cut rates, with some open to further hikes if inflation persists. Meanwhile, China’s factory activity slowed in January, reflecting weak domestic demand. Still, downside appears limited as markets factor in longer-term demand from manufacturing, electrification, and AI, alongside constrained mine supply. Output declined at key Chilean mines, while Peru’s production also fell year-on-year. China plans to expand strategic copper reserves, and Goldman Sachs sees upside risk to late-2026 price forecasts if stockpiling accelerates. Although the global refined market remains in surplus, expectations of structural demand growth are offering support. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 9.97%. Support lies at 1,157.3 and 1,146.4, while resistance is seen at 1,176.8; a move above could test 1,185.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1146.4-1185.4.

* Copper prices gained as investors stepped in to buy the dip amid thin trade volumes.

* Stocks in LME-tracked warehouses increased for the 26th straight session, reaching an 11-month high.

* Combined inventories across Shanghai, London, and New York also surpassed 1 million tons, the highest since 2003.

Zinc

Zinc gained 0.71% to settle at 326.3, supported by ongoing supply concerns and tight inventory conditions. Mine closures and temporary production suspensions in China have reinforced the perception of limited concentrate availability. A southwest China mine halted output earlier this month, while a central China lead-zinc operation has paused production ahead of the Lunar New Year, together trimming near-term supply. At the same time, inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 23.1% week-on-week, indicating some easing in immediate tightness. Globally, the supply picture is mixed. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the refined zinc market showed a modest surplus in the first eleven months of 2025, though November recorded a small deficit. Chinese refined zinc production hit a record 675,000 mt in December, up 13.1% year-on-year, as smelters ramped up output to capitalize on stronger prices. For 2025, total output rose nearly 6%. However, gains remain capped by sluggish demand and lingering concerns over China’s economic momentum, despite supportive signals from the central bank. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down sharply by 37.41%. Support is seen at 324.2 and 321.9, while resistance stands at 327.8; a move above could push prices toward 329.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 321.9-329.1.

* Zinc prices gained as low inventories and mine closures, delays underpinned prices.

* Refined zinc production was on track to fall 2% last year, despite the 6.3% jump in mined output.

* China's economy is stable but faces challenges such as imbalance in supply and demand, the People's Bank of China said.

Aluminium 

Aluminium edged up 0.34% to settle at 307.25, supported by firm demand and constrained supply growth. In China, output is expected to plateau after the country effectively reached its 45 million ton capacity cap in 2025. Beijing’s ongoing push to curb excess capacity has limited expectations of any upward revision, while efforts by Chinese smelters to expand in Indonesia continue to face hurdles from high energy costs and regulatory risks. Supply-side risks also lent support after South32 confirmed its Mozal smelter in Mozambique will move into care and maintenance next month. At the same time, tighter U.S. trade policies, including steep tariffs on aluminium imports, have disrupted flows and lifted domestic prices. On the production front, China’s refined aluminium output hit a record 3.87 million tons in December, taking full-year production above 45 million tons. Global primary aluminium output rose 1.3% year-on-year in January, according to the International Aluminium Institute. Meanwhile, inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange climbed over 21% week-on-week, capping gains. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 9.7%. Immediate support is seen at 305.9 and 304.5, while resistance stands at 308.3; a move above this level could push prices toward 309.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 304.5-309.3.

* Aluminium prices gained amid robust demand against low supply growth.

* Output in China is expected to stall this year after the major producer hit its output cap of 45 million tons in 2025.

* Global aluminium output rises 1.3% year on year in January – IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric jumped 2.29% to settle at 15,820, supported by tight arrivals and steady domestic as well as export demand. Farmers and stockists have already reduced much of their holdings, keeping supplies limited ahead of the new crop. However, gains may face resistance as fresh arrivals in Erode are expected to rise sharply over the next 10–15 days. For the 2025–26 season, acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up 4% year-on-year, with fresh production projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried output is pegged at 90 lakh bags, higher than last season’s 82.5 lakh bags, though lower carry-forward stocks are capping overall availability. Unseasonal rains in parts of Maharashtra affected nearly 15% of the area, leading to localized yield losses and quality concerns such as rhizome rot. Still, Maharashtra’s output is expected to rise to 54 lakh bags due to higher acreage. Export performance remains encouraging. Shipments during April–November 2025 rose 4.88% year-on-year, with November exports posting strong annual and monthly growth. Imports, meanwhile, fell sharply during the same period. Spot prices in Nizamabad gained 1.36%. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 1.18%. Support is seen at 15,608 and 15,398, while resistance stands at 15,962; a breakout could push prices toward 16,106.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15398-16106.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* However upside seen limited as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* Turmeric exports during Apr - Nov 2025, jump by 4.88 percent at 127530.20 tonnes as compared to 121601.21 tonnes exported during Apr - Nov 2024.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15815.75 Rupees gained by 1.36 percent.

Jeera

Jeera rose 0.81% to settle at 23,060, supported by lower sowing and tight near-term supplies. In Gujarat, acreage is down 14.34% year-on-year at 4.08 lakh hectares, making it one of the slowest sowing seasons in recent years as many fields were not ready on time. National production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, sharply lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, with Gujarat seen at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. There are also rising concerns about aphid infestation in key Rajasthan-growing areas. At the same time, the start of new crop arrivals has capped the upside. Arrivals are expected to gather pace from March, while comfortable stocks and subdued export interest are weighing on sentiment. Although demand from Gulf countries and China has improved slightly, it remains price-sensitive. Exports during April–November 2025 fell 10.30% year-on-year, even though November shipments showed a healthy annual rise. Farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, with substantial carry-forward stocks likely. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 0.52% while prices gained 185 rupees. Support is seen at 22,840 and 22,630, while resistance stands at 23,220; a move above this level could push prices toward 23,390.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 22630-23390.

* Jeera gains as sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% YoY, covering 4.08 lakh hectares.

* National production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, significantly lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags.

* However upside seen limited as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22778.6 Rupees dropped by -0.01 percent.

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