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Gold 

Gold prices settled down by -0.24% at 69,789, influenced by profit booking and a weak jobs report from the United States. The US economy added only 114,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 175,000, while the unemployment rate rose to its highest since 2021, and wage growth slowed more than anticipated. These indicators pointed to a slowing labor market and increased concerns about the Federal Reserve's ability to achieve a soft landing. The ISM data showing a sharp contraction in the manufacturing sector and missed corporate earnings also added to these concerns. Consequently, traders are now betting that the Federal Reserve will start easing policy in September with a significant half-percentage-point interest rate cut. In the global market, gold premiums in India fell as a recovery in prices tempered the buying frenzy driven by the government's decision to ease import tax. Indian dealers charged a premium of up to $7 an ounce over official domestic prices, down from the previous week's $20. The World Gold Council reported a 5% drop in India's gold demand in the June quarter compared to last year, but expects an improvement in the second half of 2024 due to a local price correction following a steep reduction in import taxes and the support of good monsoon rains. Technically, the gold market is under long liquidation with a drop in open interest by -1.7% to settle at 19,302. Prices are supported at 69,075, with potential testing of 68,360 levels. Resistance is expected at 70,735, and a move above this could see prices testing 71,680.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 68360-71680.
* Gold dropped on profit booking after prices amid weak US jobs report
* The US economy added a net 114,000 jobs in July, well below market expectations of a 175,000 increase.
* The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 2021-highs and wage growth slowed more than markets expected



Silver

Silver settled down by 0.12% at 82,493 as profit-taking kicked in following gains driven by hopes of rate cuts buoyed by weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data. The U.S. Labor Department's July jobs report showed non-farm payrolls increased by 114,000, falling short of the anticipated 185,000, and down from June's revised gain of 179,000. This has fueled speculation that September might be the first opportunity for a rate cut. Additional data, including the ISM manufacturing PMI and weekly unemployment claims, indicate a rapidly cooling economy. Silver also benefited from safe-haven demand amid heightened Middle East tensions. The slowdown in U.S. job growth, with unemployment rising to 4.3%, has raised concerns about the labor market's health and the potential for a recession. The current slowdown is driven more by reduced hiring than layoffs, as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 dampen demand. The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.6 in July 2024 from 48.5 in June, below market expectations of 48.8, marking the sharpest contraction in U.S. factory activity since November 2023. This was the 20th decline in activity in the last 21 periods, highlighting the impact of high interest rates on demand for goods, exacerbated by a new contraction in the level of new orders. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 3.22% to settle at 25,659 while prices fell by 101 rupees. Silver has support at 81,100, with a potential test of 79,705 below this level. Resistance is likely at 84,295, with prices possibly testing 86,095 on a move above.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 79705-86095.
* Silver retreated as profit-taking kicked after prices amid another downbeat U.S. economic report.
* Silver is also seeing safe-haven demand amid heightened Middle East tensions.
* U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in July, while the unemployment rate increased to 4.3%

Crude oil

Crude oil prices fell sharply by -4.51% to 6,146, driven by concerns over global oil demand despite supply risks from rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Data revealed a significant slowdown in US jobs growth, with the unemployment rate increasing to 4.3% and wage growth decelerating. This came alongside weak manufacturing data, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI showed a larger-than-expected contraction in US factory activity, while China’s factory activity also unexpectedly contracted, marking the first decline since last October. Geopolitical tensions are high as markets monitor Iran's response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and the killing of Hezbollah's top commander in Beirut. An OPEC+ meeting maintained the group's oil output policy, including a plan to start unwinding production cuts from October. OPEC's oil output increased in July by 100,000 barrels per day to 26.70 million bpd, driven by a rebound in Saudi Arabian supply and small increases from other members. US crude oil inventories fell by 3.436 million barrels in the week ending July 26th, surpassing market expectations and marking the fifth consecutive decline in inventories. Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub also fell by 1.1 million barrels. Gasoline stocks dropped by 3.7 million barrels despite a decline in product supplied, while distillate fuel inventories rose by 1.5 million barrels. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure with a significant increase in open interest by 104.16% to settle at 16,453 while prices dropped by 290 rupees. Crude oil is finding support at 6,023, with a potential test of 5,900 levels below. Resistance is expected at 6,375, and a move above this could see prices testing 6,604.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5900-6604.
* Crude oil fell as global oil demand concerns outweighed supply risks from rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
* Asia's crude oil imports in July fell to their lowest in two years, sapped by weak demand in China and India.
* OPEC+ meeting left the group's oil output policy unchanged, including a plan to start unwinding one layer of production cuts from October.


Natural gas

Natural gas settled down by 2.31% at 164.9 due to rising output and forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected. This decline occurred despite a bullish smaller-than-expected weekly storage build and predictions of record-breaking heat that could push gas consumption by power generators to an all-time high. According to financial firm LSEG, gas output in the Lower 48 states averaged 103.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in August, up from 103.4 bcfd in July, nearing the record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists slightly lowered their temperature forecasts for the Lower 48 states, which contributed to power demand not reaching the all-time high some analysts predicted for Thursday. Additionally, the U.S. National Hurricane Center reported a tropical disturbance over Cuba with a 90% chance of developing into a cyclone that could impact Florida's Gulf Coast or Panhandle within the next seven days. US utilities added 18 billion cubic feet of gas into storage, totaling 3,249 billion cubic feet for the week ending July 26, 2024. This was sharply below market expectations of a 31 billion cubic feet build and slower than the previous week's 22 billion cubic feet increase. Despite this, storage levels are 8.4% higher than the same period last year and over 15% above the five-year average. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest decreasing by 0.31% to settle at 53,856 while prices fell by 3.9 rupees. Natural gas has support at 161.2, potentially testing 157.4 below, and resistance at 169.4, with a possible move to 173.8 above.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 157.4-173.8.
* Natural gas fell on rising output and forecasts for less demand next week than previously expected.
* Prices fell despite a bullish smaller-than-expected weekly storage build
* Gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to an average of 103.8 bcfd so far in August, up from 103.4 bcfd in July.


Copper

Copper prices edged up by 0.61% to 795.1 as inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 2.0%. However, gains were limited due to weak manufacturing data from the United States and China, raising concerns about the global economic outlook and demand. In July, factory activity in China, the world’s top metals consumer, contracted for the first time in nine months, reflecting similar findings in the official PMI survey showing a five-month low. In the U.S., manufacturing activity hit an eight-month low, further exacerbating demand worries. Despite these concerns, copper premiums in China surged to $25 a ton, their highest in over three months. The global refined copper market showed a surplus of 65,000 metric tons in May, compared to 11,000 metric tons in April, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). For the first five months of the year, the market was in a 416,000 metric tons surplus compared to 154,000 metric tons in the same period last year. World refined copper output in May was 2.37 million metric tons, while consumption was 2.31 million metric tons. China’s unwrought copper imports in June declined to a 14-month low, impacted by high global prices and weak domestic demand, totaling 436,000 metric tons. This marked a 3% drop from the previous year and a 15% decline from May’s higher-than-expected 514,000 tons. Technically, the market is under short covering with a 4.56% drop in open interest, settling at 13,598 while prices rose by 4.8 rupees. Copper is supported at 790.8, with a potential test of 786.5 levels. Resistance is expected at 799.6, with a move above possibly testing 804.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 786.5-804.1.
* Copper prices gained as Shanghai warehouse copper stocks down 2.0%
* IMF projects China's 2024 economic growth to be 5%, 2025 growth to be 4.5%.
* Weak manufacturing data from US and China exacerbated worries about the global economic outlook

Zinc

Zinc prices increased by 0.38% to 251.35, driven by a 7.5% drop in inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange-monitored warehouses. Investor sentiment was bolstered by hopes for additional policy support from China, following a private sector survey indicating that manufacturing activity in July contracted for the first time in nine months. This aligns with an official PMI survey showing manufacturing activity at a five-month low. Beijing's Politburo has emphasized the need for policies to revive the $17 trillion economy, aiming to increase wages and boost domestic consumption. China's refined zinc production in June was 545,800 mt, up 1.81% month-on-month but down 1.2% year-on-year, while H1 output totaled 3.182 million mt, a 1.39% decline year-on-year, exceeding expectations. The higher production was mainly due to increased output in Guangxi, Gansu, and Guizhou, and resumed production after maintenance in Shaanxi, Gansu, Yunnan, and Guizhou. However, some regions like Hunan experienced production cuts due to maintenance shutdowns. The supply of zinc concentrate remains tight, with refinery raw material inventories being consumed faster than replenished. MMG Ltd's suspension of operations at the Dugald River zinc mine in Australia for two months of repairs is expected to exacerbate the tight zinc concentrates market. The global zinc market surplus fell to 8,300 metric tons in May from 15,300 tons in April, with a cumulative surplus of 193,000 tons in the first five months of the year, compared to 330,000 tons in the same period last year. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest dropping by 9.73% to 2004 while prices rose by 0.95 rupees. Zinc has support at 249.7, with a potential test of 247.9 below this level, and resistance at 253.7, with a possible move to 255.9 above.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 247.9-255.9.
* Zinc gained as Shanghai warehouse zinc stocks down 7.5%
* The global zinc market surplus fell to 8,300 metric tons in May from 15,300 tons in April
* Investors were also hoping for more support policy from China


Aluminium

Aluminium settled down by 0.59% at 210.55, influenced by weak manufacturing data from the United States and China, raising concerns about global economic growth and subsequent demand. Rainfall in Yunnan, China's key production hub, improved hydropower availability, enabling smelters to resume idled capacity. Manufacturing activity in China contracted at a faster pace in July, while the services sector growth slowed to an eight-month low. Global primary aluminium output in June rose by 3.2% year-on-year to 5.94 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). For the first half of 2024, output increased by 3.9% to 35.84 million metric tons, primarily driven by higher production in China. China's aluminium production grew by 7% in the first half of the year to 21.55 million tons, with June production reaching a nearly decade-high. The IAI reported China's production at 21.26 million tons for January-June, up 5.2%. In Western and Central Europe, aluminium output increased by 2.2% to 1.37 million tons, while Russia and Eastern Europe saw a 2.4% rise to 2.04 million tons. The Gulf region's output rose by 0.7% to 3.10 million tons. The premium for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for July-September was set at $172 per metric ton, reflecting tighter supplies in Asia. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports were 317,860 metric tons at the end of June, a 3% increase from the previous month. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest gaining by 1.56% to settle at 4622 while prices dropped by 1.25 rupees. Aluminium has support at 208.8, with a potential test of 206.9 below, and resistance at 213.8, with a possible move to 216.9 above.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.9-216.9.
* Aluminium dropped as weak manufacturing data from US and China exacerbated worries about the global economic outlook.
* Rainfall in the Chinese production hub of Yunnan improved the availability of hydropower and allowed smelters to bring back idled capacity.
* Citi forecasts aluminium recovery to $2,500/t (previously $2,550/t) within three months


Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy settled down by 0.46% at 56,530 due to profit booking, despite being supported by significant declines in cotton acreage in key Indian states. Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan reported a total of 10.23 lakh hectares under cotton, a sharp decline from last year’s 16 lakh hectares. Punjab's cotton area dropped to 97,000 hectares from the usual 7.58 lakh hectares seen in the 1980s and 1990s. Rajasthan's area reduced from 8.35 lakh hectares last year to 4.75 lakh hectares, and Haryana's from 5.75 lakh hectares to 4.50 lakh hectares in 2024. Support for cotton prices also came from delays in shipments from the US and Brazil, boosting demand for Indian cotton from neighboring mills. Firm trends in cottonseed prices are holding up natural fiber prices even as sowing for the kharif 2024 season begins in Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, fueled by monsoon rains. In Telangana, cotton acreage is expected to rise as some chilli farmers shift to cotton due to weak spice prices. The 2024/25 US cotton projections indicate higher beginning and ending stocks, with production, domestic use, and exports unchanged. The season average upland farm price is down by 4 cents from the May forecast to 70 cents per pound, following a decline in new-crop cotton futures. Globally, the 2024/25 cotton balance sheet shows increased beginning stocks, production, and consumption, with world trade unchanged. World ending stocks are projected to be 480,000 bales higher than in May, at 83.5 million. Production is raised by 90,000 bales due to higher area and yield in Burma, and consumption is 80,000 bales higher, with increases in Vietnam and Burma offsetting reductions elsewhere. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest dropping by 0.58% to settle at 171 while prices fell by 260 rupees. Cottoncandy has support at 56,000 and could test 55,530 levels below this, while resistance is likely at 57,030, with prices potentially testing 57,530 above..

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 56530-56530.
* Cotton dropped on profit booking after seen supported as area under cotton in North India drops
* India's cotton exports in the first nine months of 2023-24 increased by 68% to 26 lakh bales
* CAI estimates closing stocks at 20 lakh bales at the end of 2023-24, down from 28.90 lakh bales in the previous year
* In the global 2024/25 cotton balance sheet, beginning stocks, production and consumption are increased.
 
Turmeric

Turmeric prices rose by 0.6% to 16,096, driven by farmers holding back stocks in anticipation of further price increases. However, the upside was limited by reports of increased sowing. Turmeric sowing on the Erode line has reportedly doubled compared to last year, while Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh are seeing an estimated 30-35% increase in sowing. Last year, turmeric was sown in about 3-3.25 lakh hectares, which is expected to rise to 3.75-4 lakh hectares this year. Despite the increased sowing, the production of turmeric in 2024 is estimated to be 45-50 lakh bags due to unfavorable weather conditions last year. Additionally, there was an outstanding stock of 35-38 lakh bags. Even with increased sowing, the upcoming crop is projected to be around 70-75 lakh bags, with no outstanding stock remaining. This could result in lower availability of turmeric compared to consumption in 2025. Turmeric exports during April-May 2024 dropped by 20.03% to 31,523.94 tonnes compared to the same period in 2023. In May 2024, exports rose by 23.43% from April but fell by 12.17% compared to May 2023. Imports during April-May 2024 surged by 417.74% to 14,637.55 tonnes compared to the previous year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, turmeric prices ended at 16,236.9 rupees, dropping by -0.89%. Technically, the market is under fresh buying with a 1.63% gain in open interest, settling at 16,090 while prices increased by 96 rupees. Turmeric finds support at 15,910, with a potential test of 15,724 levels. Resistance is likely at 16,276, with a move above possibly testing 16,456.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15724-16456.
* Turmeric gains as farmers are holding back stocks in anticipation of a further rise.
* Turmeric sowing on the Erode line is reported to be double as compared to last year.
* Turmeric was sown in about 3/3.25 lakh hectares in the country last year, which is estimated to increase to 3.75/4 lakh hectares this year.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 16236.9 Rupees dropped by -0.89 percent.


Jeera

Jeera settled down by 0.17% at 26,655 due to expectations of higher production, despite strong domestic and export demand and tight global supplies. Farmers holding back stocks in anticipation of better prices also supported the market. This season, jeera production is expected to increase by 30% to 8.5-9 lakh tonnes due to a substantial rise in cultivation area. In Gujarat, the sowing area surged by 104% and in Rajasthan by 16%. Globally, jeera production has seen significant increases, with China’s output more than doubling to over 55-60 thousand tons. Higher production is also anticipated in Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan, with new supplies expected in June and July, likely causing prices to decline. Reduced export trade in cumin has also pressured prices, indicating a shift in global market dynamics. In Gujarat, cumin production is estimated at a record 4.08 lakh tonnes, up from 2.15 lakh tonnes last year. Rajasthan’s production increased by 53%. Favorable weather and expanded sowing area have led to a doubling of India’s production compared to last year. Trade analysts predict a significant rise in cumin exports, potentially reaching 14-15 thousand tonnes in February 2024, despite a volatile 2023. The weather department forecast above-average rainfall in August and September, which could boost farm output and economic growth in India. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2024 rose by 43.5% to 58,943.84 tonnes, although there was a 15.64% drop in May 2024 compared to May 2023. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with a 0.66% increase in open interest to 26,795 while prices fell by 45 rupees. Jeera has support at 26,450, potentially testing 26,230 below this level, and resistance at 26,840, with prices possibly reaching 27,010 above.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 26230-27010.
* Jeera dropped as the expectation of higher production could weigh on the prices.
* China's cumin output soared to over 55-60 thousand tons from the previous 28-30 thousand tons.
* Turkey anticipates producing 12-15 thousand tons, while Afghanistan's output could double.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26721.25 Rupees dropped by 0 percent.

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