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Gold 

Gold prices closed up by 0.14% at 62808, recovering some gains after a reaction to stronger-than-expected U.S. economic activity in the third quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a growth rate of 5.2% between July and September, exceeding the previous estimate of 4.9%. Upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and state and local government spending were partially offset by a downward revision to consumer spending. Despite the robust economic data, there's a growing perception in the markets that a slowing economy could lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the first quarter of the next year. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 45.5% chance of a rate hike in March, a notable increase from expectations seen the previous week. In top Asian hubs, there was some selling of physical gold as individuals capitalized on relatively high prices. Lackluster demand during the wedding season in India prompted dealers to offer steeper discounts, reaching up to $6 an ounce over official domestic prices compared to last week's $3 discounts. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong declined by about 23% in October compared to September, according to Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data. Net imports into the world's leading gold consumer stood at 26.793 metric tons in October, down from 34.757 tons in September. Technically, the gold market is under fresh buying, with a gain in open interest by 6.07% to settle at 17123. Support is identified at 62585, and a breach could test 62365, while resistance is likely at 62980, with a move above potentially leading to testing 63155.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 62365-63155.
* Gold prices lost some gains after stronger than expected US economic activity in the third quarter.
* The second print of third quarter GDP showed that the economy grew 5.2% between July and September.
* Despite the stronger-than-expected data markets see a growing chance that a slowing economy will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Silver

Silver prices closed up by 0.36% at 77274, driven by hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve would likely cut interest rates in the first half of next year. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that current monetary settings are restrictive enough and hinted at a possible rate cut in the coming months. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also acknowledged significant progress on inflation. While new estimates showed the U.S. GDP expanding by 5.2% in Q3, signs of disinflation and concerns about the impact of higher borrowing costs on the labor market and manufacturing sector prompted the Fed to consider rate cuts. Money markets responded by accelerating expectations of rate cuts, with the yield on the 10-year note plunging nearly 60bps in November. Additionally, concerns over the supply of industrial silver, coupled with robust demand, supported prices. The Silver Institute projected a 2% drop in global mined silver production in 2023, primarily due to lower output from key producers Mexico and Peru. Rising investments in solar panels, power grids, and 5G networks led market players to forecast an 8%-10% increase in silver demand. Technically, the silver market is under fresh buying, with a gain in open interest by 11.84% to settle at 20647. Support is identified at 76825, and a breach could test 76380, while resistance is likely at 77720, with a move above potentially leading to testing 78170. The technical overview suggests a market influenced by central bank signals, economic data, and supply-demand dynamics. Traders may continue monitoring these factors for potential shifts in silver prices.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 76380-78170.
* Silver gains on hopes that Fed would likely cut interest rates by the first half of next year.
* Fed’s Waller said that current monetary settings are restrictive enough, and flagged a possible rate cut in the coming months.
* New estimates showed that the US GDP expanded by 5.2% from the earlier quarter in Q3, above earlier estimates

Crude oil

Crude oil prices settled up by 1.17% at 6488, driven by expectations that OPEC+ would extend or deepen supply cuts. Ongoing talks within OPEC+ regarding the 2024 oil policy have heightened market anticipation, with no delay expected to the scheduled meeting on Thursday. Previous OPEC+ discussions on production quotas, notably in June, have been challenging, leading to the extension of existing oil output cuts into 2024. OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have pledged total oil output cuts of approximately 5 million barrels per day, equivalent to about 5% of daily global demand. These efforts have been implemented since late 2022 to stabilize the oil market. In the U.S., the Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected increase in crude stocks by 1.6 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a 933,000-barrel drop. Gasoline stocks rose by 1.8 million barrels, slightly deviating from a poll that anticipated a 229,000-barrel rise. However, net U.S. crude imports fell by 665,000 barrels per day. Technically, the crude oil market is experiencing short covering, with a drop in open interest by -1.96% to settle at 11193. Support is identified at 6373, and a breach could test 6257, while resistance is likely at 6555, with a move above potentially leading to testing 6621. The technical overview suggests a market influenced by OPEC+ decisions, global demand dynamics, and U.S. inventory data. Traders may closely monitor these factors for potential shifts in crude oil prices.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6257-6621.
* Crude oil gains as OPEC+ is expected to extend or deepen supply cuts.
* U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week, the Energy Information Administration said.
* Crude inventories rose by 1.6 million barrels in the last week to 449.7 million barrels

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled down by -2.76% at 236.3, driven by forecasts for milder weather conditions and reduced heating demand over the next two weeks. Traders also observed that record natural gas output in the U.S. has eased concerns about meeting heating demand, as utilities can rely on ample supplies in storage. According to LSEG, average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states reached 107.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in November, up from the previous record of 104.2 bcfd in October. Daily output was expected to drop by 2.6 bcfd to a preliminary one-week low of 106.7 bcfd, potentially the largest one-day drop since late October. Meteorologists forecast a shift in weather patterns from colder than normal conditions to warmer than normal from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12. With the expectation of less cold weather, LSEG projected a decrease in U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, from 127.3 bcfd this week to 118.9 bcfd next week. Despite the downward pressure on prices, traders noted that preliminary data is subject to revision later in the day. U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico also declined, averaging 5.7 bcfd in November, compared to 6.5 bcfd in October and a record 7.0 bcfd in August. Technically, the natural gas market is under fresh selling pressure, with an increase in open interest by 0.63% to settle at 43471. Support is identified at 231.4, and a breach could test 226.4, while resistance is likely at 241.2, with a move above potentially leading to testing 246.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 226.4-246.
* Natural gas fell on forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* Record output means U.S. utilities don't have to pull as much gas out of storage as usual to meet heating demand.
* Average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 107.7 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 104.2 bcfd in October.


Copper

Copper prices settled down by -0.33% at 719.65, influenced by developments in China's refined copper imports and labor strikes at major copper mines. China's refined copper imports surged, reaching a year-to-date high of 353,000 metric tons in October, marking the highest monthly volume in 2023. Cumulative imports for the first 10 months were only 4% below last year's figures. However, concerns emerged from a two-day strike at Peru's Las Bambas copper mine, one of the country's largest copper producers. The workers' union demanded better profit sharing and improved transport conditions. The global copper market faced potential disruptions with reduced supply from major producers Panama and Peru. In Panama, the top court ruled First Quantum's contract to operate the Cobre Panama mine unconstitutional, impacting supply. Additionally, the strike at Peru's Las Bambas mine raised concerns, as Peru is the second-largest copper producer globally. The copper market is technically under fresh selling pressure, with an increase in open interest by 2.18% to settle at 5253. Support is identified at 717.6, and a breach could test 715.4, while resistance is likely at 722.9, with a move above potentially leading to testing 726. Traders are closely monitoring developments in China's copper imports, labor strikes, and potential supply disruptions to assess the impact on copper prices in the coming months.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 715.4-726.
* Copper remained in range as China's imports of refined copper have quietly accelerated over recent months
* China imported 353,000 metric tons of refined copper in October, which was the highest monthly volume this year.
* Strike at MMG's Las Bambas copper mine in Peru to end on Thursday

Zinc

Zinc prices experienced a modest uptick, closing 0.4% higher at 227.25, driven by China's robust refined zinc output in October, surpassing expectations with a month-on-month growth of 11.14% and a year-on-year increase of 17.6%. The market sentiment was buoyed by the anticipation of extended support measures for China's economy, limiting downside risks. Notably, the global zinc market shifted from a surplus of 28,000 metric tons in August to a deficit of 15,400 tons in September, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). However, the overall surplus for the first nine months of the year increased substantially to 475,000 tons, compared to a surplus of 47,000 tons in the same period last year. Zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses declined by 12.1%, signaling tightening supply. Conversely, London Metal Exchange (LME) data revealed a significant increase in zinc stocks, more than tripling in a week to the highest levels in over two years. Nyrstar's decision to temporarily close mines in the U.S. due to inflation impacts added to concerns about future zinc production, as did operational halts in Ireland and Portugal. Despite these supply-side challenges, zinc prices remained around 15% lower since the beginning of the year. Technical analysis suggests short covering in the market, with open interest unchanged at 3010. Zinc's current support level is at 226, with a potential test of 224.8 if breached, while resistance is anticipated at 228, and a move above could lead to a test of 228.8.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 222.3-228.7.
* Zinc dropped as China's refined zinc output in October, showed a growth of 11.14% MOM
* However, downside seen limited on hopes that China will extend support measures for its economy.
* The global zinc market swung to a deficit of 15,400 metric tons in September from a surplus of 28,000 tons in August


Aluminium

Aluminium prices held steady at 203.45, showing no change amid China's robust October 2023 aluminum production, marking a 6.7% YoY increase to 3.641 million mt. Global primary aluminium output also surged 3.9% YoY to 6.116 million tonnes in October, as reported by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Notably, China's primary aluminum imports soared by 173% YoY to 1.17 million mt in January-October, resulting in a 347.33% YoY surge in net imports to 1.06 million mt. This spike was fueled by a 221.19% YoY increase in October imports to 216,600 mt, while exports dwindled by 4.67% YoY, reaching 600 mt. In the domestic market, Chinese regulators, including the People's Bank of China, are devising a "whitelist" to provide lending support to 50 property developers. Concurrently, smelters in Yunnan province have commenced cutting 1.15 million tons of capacity to comply with power curbs lasting until April. Importantly, China's aluminium imports experienced a fifth consecutive monthly rise in October, reaching 2.39 million tons, a 27.5% YoY increase, reflecting improved buying sentiment amid robust demand and expectations of reduced domestic supply. From a technical standpoint, the market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest remaining unchanged at 3432, and prices showing no movement at 0 rupees. The technical support for Aluminium is identified at 202.5, with potential further downswing to 201.4. On the upside, resistance is anticipated at 204.2, and a breach above could lead to testing the 204.8 levels.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 201.9-203.5.
* Aluminium dropped as China's October 2023 aluminum production hit 3.641 million mt, up 6.7% YoY.
* Global primary aluminium output in October rose 3.9% year on year to 6.116 million tonnes
* Data showed that China imported 1.17 million mt of primary aluminum in January-October, up 173% YoY.

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy futures posted a marginal gain, closing up by 0.24% at 57300. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) revised down its cotton production estimate for the current 2023/2024 season to 29.4 million bales, citing damage in Haryana caused by pink bollworm infestation and farmers uprooting plants. Additionally, a significant decline in cotton production by 25% is anticipated in north Maharashtra due to inadequate rainfall. The USDA's November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report presented a mixed picture for the global cotton market. While the report increased the anticipated U.S. production in 2023/24 by 273,000 bales, it also raised global ending stocks by 1.6 million bales. The 2023/24 U.S. cotton balance sheet showed slightly lower consumption but higher production and ending stocks. Production was 273,000 bales higher, at 13.1 million bales, with lower production in Texas more than offset elsewhere. CAI released its final estimate of crop production for the 2022-23 season, pegging it slightly higher at 31.8 million bales. This contrasts with the government’s third advance estimate of 34.3 million bales for the 2022-23 season. In north Maharashtra, where normal annual cotton production is about 20 lakh tonnes, a decline of 25% is expected this year due to inadequate rainfall. Cotton production may fall to 15 lakh tonnes, according to state agriculture officials. In the Rajkot spot market, cotton prices ended at 26756.9 Rupees, dropping by -0.06%. Technically, the cotton market is under fresh buying pressure, witnessing a gain in open interest by 3.52% to settle at 147. Support is identified at 57200, and a breach could test 57110, while resistance is likely at 57380, with a move above potentially leading to testing 57470.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 57110-57470.
* Cotton gains as CAI has revised down its cotton production estimate for the current 2023/2024 season to 29.4 million bales
* India's cotton production in 2023/24 is likely to fall 7.5%
* USDA cut U.S. production in 2023/24 to 12.8 million bales
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26756.9 Rupees dropped by -0.06 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices experienced a decline of -2.45%, settling at 12910, as buying activities slowed in anticipation of the release of stocks ahead of the new crops expected in January 2024. The pressure on prices was further fueled by improved crop conditions due to favorable weather. Concerns arose in Maharashtra over the location of Prime Minister Modi's Turmeric Board in Telangana, impacting farmer sentiments. However, the downside was limited due to the potential for yield losses attributed to the crop's unfavorable weather conditions. The IMD forecasts drier-than-average conditions in October, impacting crop growth. The current level of buying activity, coupled with decreasing supplies, is expected to sustain price stability. Expectations of a 20–25% decline in turmeric seeding this year, particularly in areas like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, reflect farmers' shifting priorities. Turmeric exports during April to September 2023 increased by 4.14%, reaching 92,025.16 tonnes compared to 88,367.77 tonnes in the same period in 2022. However, September 2023 exports dropped by 19.75% compared to August 2023 and 35.06% compared to September 2022. In the major spot market of Nizamabad, the closing price was 13663.15 Rupees, gaining 1.95%. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with a drop in open interest by -3.06% to settle at 11,400. Turmeric is finding support at 12698, and a breach could test 12486, while resistance is likely at 13234, with a move above potentially leading to testing 13558.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12486-13558.
* Turmeric dropped as buying activities has been slower in expectation of release of stocks
* In Sep 2023 around 9,085.81 tonnes exported as against 11,322.58 tonnes in Aug 2023 showing a drop of 19.75%.
* Expectations for a 20–25 percent decline in turmeric seeding this year
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13663.15 Rupees gained by 1.95 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices closed down by -0.38% at 45900, attributed to favorable sowing conditions and adequate soil moisture. Despite the downward trend, stockists showed interest in buying, limiting the extent of the decline. The upcoming normal sowing season for jeera in Gujarat, where sowing has seen a robust growth of nearly 116% compared to 2022, has influenced market dynamics. Global demand for Indian jeera has weakened as buyers prefer other origins like Syria and Turkey due to higher prices in India. The export outlook remains subdued, and the competitive pricing of Indian jeera in the global market has not been favorable for exporters, keeping overseas demand restrained. The uncertainty surrounding China's potential purchase of Indian cumin in October-November adds complexity to market dynamics. Jeera exports during April to September 2023 dropped by 29.79%, reaching 76,969.88 tonnes compared to 109,628.78 tonnes in the same period in 2022. September 2023 exports declined by 11.02% compared to August 2023 and 60.27% compared to September 2022. In the major spot market of Unjha, the closing price was 47041.95 Rupees, gaining 0.31%. Technically, the market witnessed long liquidation, with a drop in open interest by -1.16% to settle at 3,072. Jeera is currently finding support at 45500, and a breach could test 45080, while resistance is likely at 46340, with a move above potentially leading to testing 46760.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 45080-46760.
* Jeera dropped as adequate soil moisture, and favorable weather condition for crop will boost the overall sowing activities.
* The upcoming sowing of jeera that is expected to remain normal due to favorable weather condition.
* Stockists are showing interest in buying on recent downfall in prices triggering short covering.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 47041.95 Rupees gained by 0.31 percent.

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