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Gold

Gold settled down 1.08% at Rs154,262 as rising oil prices intensified inflation concerns and pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, with the 30-year yield reaching a near two-decade high. Crude prices climbed to their highest level in more than two weeks amid expectations that the Middle East conflict could remain prolonged, while Iran indicated a shift toward a “fully offensive” military posture after negotiations for a permanent end to the war broke down. Markets are now pricing a 33% probability of a September Fed rate hike, down from 47% a month earlier, while the upcoming July FOMC minutes will be closely watched for monetary policy signals. Despite the recent decline, speculative positioning remains supportive, with COMEX gold net long positions rising by 9,470 contracts to 141,868 contracts in the week ended August 11, highlighting continued safe-haven interest amid geopolitical uncertainty and volatile real interest rates. Physical demand, however, remains subdued in key Asian markets. Indian gold discounts widened to as much as $62 per ounce, the highest in over two months, while Chinese gold traded between a $2 discount and $5 premium. India’s net gold imports fell 23% year-on-year to 98.1 tonnes in Q2 2026, while domestic gold demand declined 6% to 131.4 tonnes as jewellery consumption weakened despite stronger investment demand. Globally, Q2 gold demand remained steady at 1,268.9 tonnes, supported by central-bank purchases of 289 tonnes, five times Q1’s revised 57 tonnes, offsetting 45 tonnes of ETF outflows. London vault holdings increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes at end-June, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion. Technically, gold remains under long liquidation, with open interest declining 4.43% to 9,614 contracts alongside the Rs1,678 price fall. Immediate support is placed at Rs153,675, below which prices could test Rs153,095, while resistance is seen at Rs155,280; a sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs156,305.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 153095-156305.

* Gold prices slipped as oil prices jumped, fanning inflation and driving a rally in U.S. Treasury yields.

* US 30-year Treasury bond yield hits highest since mid-2007

* US rules out extending Iran ceasefire deal

Silver

Silver settled down 2.36% at Rs232,419 amid a broad metals-market correction as global bond yields surged to multi-year highs on concerns over heavy government spending and persistent inflation. Rising crude oil prices further reinforced inflation and interest-rate concerns, although silver retained support from reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike as weak U.S. economic data increased the likelihood of unchanged policy in September. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 51 in early August from 55.2 in July, while U.S. retail sales declined 0.6% month-on-month in July against expectations for a 0.1% increase. Initial unemployment claims rose 9,000 to 209,000, exceeding expectations of 202,000, indicating softer labor-market conditions. Industrial fundamentals remain supportive, with silver demand benefiting from photovoltaic solar panels, electric vehicles, green-energy infrastructure and artificial-intelligence data centers. Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores jumped 62.5% year-on-year to 219,000 tonnes in June, highlighting continued processing activity. However, speculative positioning moderated, with CFTC silver net long positions declining by 755 contracts to 10,312 contracts in the week ended August 11, suggesting capital remained more heavily concentrated in gold. London silver vault holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes at end-June, valued at approximately $53.1 billion. Structurally, the silver market is heading toward a sixth consecutive annual deficit, with 762 million ounces drawn from stocks since 2021. The 2026 deficit is projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million in 2025 despite a 2% decline in total demand, while total supply is expected to fall 2%. Industrial fabrication is forecast to decline 3% to a four-year low, whereas coin and bar demand could rise 18%. Technically, silver is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 6.41% to 11,432 contracts alongside a Rs5,629 decline in prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs230,405, below which prices could test Rs228,385, while resistance is seen at Rs235,380; a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward Rs238,335.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 228385-238335.

* Silver dropped amid a broad pullback across the metals market as global bond yields surged to multi-year highs.

* Metals also faced pressure from rising oil prices, which kept inflationary risks and interest rate concerns in focus.

* Goldman calls September Fed hike very unlikely as inflation eases

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.99% higher at Rs8,143 as prospects for a renewed agreement between the United States and Iran weakened after President Donald Trump indicated that he was not interested in extending the interim peace arrangement, which officially expired on Monday. The development increased uncertainty around future oil flows, particularly through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman continued discussions on managing shipping through the waterway, while the United States is unlikely to support any arrangement that does not ensure unrestricted passage. Middle Eastern producers are increasingly using alternative and covert routes to move crude through and around Hormuz, helping maintain global supplies despite geopolitical risks. Speculative sentiment also improved, with CFTC WTI crude oil net long positions rising by 4,034 contracts to 105,860 contracts in the week ended August 11. However, demand expectations remain under pressure. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking the fourth consecutive downward revision, while the International Energy Agency expects consumption to contract by 1.6 million barrels per day, citing restricted fuel supplies and higher prices linked to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. U.S. inventory data added pressure on fundamentals, as crude stocks surged 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels in the week ended August 7, sharply exceeding expectations for a 1.4 million-barrel draw. Cushing inventories increased 1.6 million barrels, while gasoline stocks declined 1 million barrels to 208.7 million barrels and distillate inventories slipped 10,000 barrels to 107.1 million barrels. Refinery crude runs increased 26,000 barrels per day, although utilization declined 0.3 percentage points, while net crude imports jumped 1.77 million barrels per day. Technically, crude oil is under short covering, with open interest falling sharply by 49.54% to 5,608 contracts while prices gained Rs80. Immediate support is placed at Rs8,078, below which prices could test Rs8,012, while resistance is seen at Rs8,218; a sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs8,292.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8012-8292.

* Crude oil climbed as prospects for a new agreement between the US and Iran weakened

* President Donald Trump said he was not interested in extending the interim peace deal.

* Iran and Oman continue to negotiate an arrangement for managing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, although the US is not involved in the talks.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 2.68% higher at Rs264.8, supported by forecasts for stronger demand next week as hotter-than-normal weather is expected to persist through the end of August. Average U.S. Lower 48 gas output increased to 111.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August from July’s monthly record of 110.7 bcfd, keeping supply at historically high levels. Despite elevated summer temperatures, record production and relatively mild spring weather have allowed inventories to remain above the five-year 2021-2025 average since March. Average Lower 48 demand, including exports, is projected to decline from 115.5 bcfd this week to 113.1 bcfd next week and 111.9 bcfd in two weeks, indicating some moderation after the near-term weather-driven boost. Gas flows to the nine major U.S. LNG export facilities averaged 17.1 bcfd in August, slightly below July’s 17.2 bcfd and June’s record 17.4 bcfd. U.S. energy firms added 36 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended August 7, exceeding expectations of 31 bcf and the five-year average injection of 33 bcf. Total inventories reached 3.153 trillion cubic feet, 0.8% below last year but 6.7% above the five-year average, highlighting a comfortable supply cushion. The EIA expects both U.S. gas supply and demand to reach record levels in 2026, with dry gas production forecast at 111.2 bcfd versus 107.6 bcfd in 2025, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd. LNG exports are forecast to rise from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, although the latest forecast was trimmed slightly due to maintenance at Freeport LNG. Technically, natural gas is under short covering, with open interest declining 14.64% to 38,035 contracts while prices gained Rs6.9. Immediate support is placed at Rs260.2, below which prices could test Rs255.6, while resistance is seen at Rs267.4; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs270.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 255.6-270.

* Natural gas edged up on forecasts for more demand with the weather expected to remain hotter-than-normal.

* Average gas output rose to 111.3 bcfd so far in August, up from a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in July.

* Gas inventories have remained in surplus despite weeks of above-normal temperatures this summer.

Copper

Copper settled 1.06% lower at Rs1,368.55 as rising London Metal Exchange inventories and disappointing Chinese economic data weighed on sentiment, although tight concentrate supply and constrained smelter operations continued to provide fundamental support. LME copper inventories increased by 17,450 tonnes to 223,550 tonnes, including inflows of 7,250 tonnes in the United States and 3,000 tonnes in Hong Kong, while 2,575 tonnes of previously cancelled warrants were returned. The cash-to-three-month spread remained in steep backwardation at $362 per tonne, highlighting tight nearby availability despite the inventory build. China’s factory output grew 4.5% year-on-year in July, below expectations, while fixed-asset investment contracted 6.7% during the first seven months of 2026, pointing to weaker industrial and construction activity. Chinese copper imports also weakened, with unwrought copper and product imports falling 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes in July, while January-July imports declined 6.2% to 2.92 million tonnes. China’s refined copper production, however, reached a record 1.334 million tonnes in July, up 2.5%, while copper product output fell 2.3% to 2.16 million tonnes, signaling downstream demand weakness. Supply constraints remain significant, with China’s August refined output forecast at 1.05 million tonnes, down 2.83% year-on-year, while Indonesia’s 342,000-tonne-per-year Gresik smelter remains offline. Antofagasta also reduced its 2026 copper output forecast to 625,000-655,000 tonnes from 650,000-700,000 tonnes. Goldman Sachs sharply raised its 2026 refined copper deficit forecast outside the United States to 640,000 tonnes from 60,000 tonnes. However, the ICSG reported an 18,000-tonne global refined copper surplus in May, with a 221,000-tonne surplus during January-May. Technically, copper is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 4.92% to 8,861 contracts while prices fell Rs14.7. Support is placed at Rs1,362.6, below which prices could test Rs1,356.5, while resistance is seen at Rs1,379.6; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs1,390.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1356.5-1390.5.

* Copper slipped as LME inventories climbed for a second day.

* China's factory output grew 4.5% in July from a year earlier.

* China’s August refined copper output forecast to fall again as feedstock shortage deepens

Zinc

Zinc settled 0.82% lower at Rs397.55 as profit-taking and weaker demand at elevated prices limited upside, although tightening supply, falling LME inventories and potential production disruptions in China provided downside support. Nexa reported Q2 2026 zinc production of 79.3 thousand tonnes, up 8% year-on-year, mainly due to higher ore grades, while operational recovery at Peruvian mines offset lower grades at Aripuanã. LME zinc inventories declined to 95,000 tonnes, the lowest level since December, while cancelled warrants remained at a quarterly high and on-warrant stocks fell below key levels, increasing the risk of a near-term squeeze. The cash LME zinc contract remained around $60 per tonne above the three-month forward, easing from more than $73 a week earlier but maintaining steep backwardation and signaling tight nearby availability. Supply risks are also increasing as heavy rainfall and flooding threaten Chinese mining and smelting operations, with production adjustments at a Southwest China mine expected to reduce August concentrate output by around 1,000 tonnes and maintenance at a Central China smelter potentially cutting refined production by 1,000-1,500 tonnes. Glencore reported H1 own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes, down 21% year-on-year, while Boliden’s zinc concentrate output fell 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes. MMG produced 106,000 tonnes in H1, while Minmetals Resources reported 105,800 tonnes and maintained its full-year guidance of 215,000-235,000 tonnes. China’s refined zinc production reached 641,000 tonnes in May, up 10% year-on-year, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories increased 2.1% week-on-week. The global refined zinc surplus narrowed sharply to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, although the January-May surplus stood at 163,000 tonnes. China’s central bank reiterated an appropriately loose monetary policy stance to support economic growth. Technically, zinc is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 8.45% to 2,523 contracts while prices declined Rs3.3. Support is placed at Rs395.6, below which prices could test Rs393.5, while resistance is seen at Rs400.2; a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward Rs402.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 393.5-402.7.

* Zinc prices dropped as Nexa reported total zinc production of 79.3 kt, up 8% year over year.

* However downside seen limited amid tightening supply and growing concerns over production disruptions in China.

* Minmetals Resources zinc output hit 105,800 tonnes, and the company maintained its full year output guidance of 215,000 235,000 tonnes.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 1.11% lower at Rs347.05 as stronger Chinese production and easing concerns over Gulf supply outweighed support from critically low LME inventories and ongoing supply disruptions. China’s aluminium production rose 3.8% year-on-year to 3.9 million tonnes in July, while exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis increased 18.6% year-on-year to 643,000 tonnes, although they declined 9.6% month-on-month. Cumulative exports during January-July reached 4.04 million tonnes, up 16.7% year-on-year, highlighting China’s growing role in offsetting global supply shortages. LME aluminium inventories continued to decline to their lowest level since 1990, reflecting supply-chain disruptions caused by the Iran conflict. However, supply concerns eased as Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter, currently operating at 18% capacity, is expected to return to previous output levels by early 2027. Australia’s largest aluminium smelter also secured a $1.8 billion government bailout, supporting continued operations. Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte alumina refinery in Brazil reduced output to 50% of capacity due to lower natural gas availability, while Alcoa cut its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes following cyclone and bauxite contamination-related disruptions in Western Australia. Global primary aluminium production declined 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98 million tonnes in June, with Gulf output falling by one-third, while production outside China dropped 6.7% in July. European physical premiums eased to $487 per tonne from $621 in May but remained 36% above levels seen when the war began, indicating continued supply tightness. China’s semi-manufactured aluminium exports also remained strong, rising 15% during the first half of 2026 after recovering from the removal of tax rebates. Softer U.S. employment data and fading expectations for Fed rate hikes provided some macroeconomic support. Technically, aluminium is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 7.11% to 3,686 contracts while prices fell Rs3.9. Support is placed at Rs344.8, below which prices could test Rs342.5, while resistance is seen at Rs350.7; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs354.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 342.5-354.3.

* Aluminium dropped as China aluminium production up 3.8 % to 3.9 mln metric tons in July

* Global primary aluminium output in June fell 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98 million metric tons

* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 3.1% from last Friday.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 0.57% higher at Rs21,134 amid tight hand-to-mouth supplies, declining carry-forward stocks and concerns that deficient rainfall and potential El Niño conditions could affect the developing crop. Sowing acreage is expected to increase 16.05% year-on-year from 2025 and remain above the five-year average of 1.88 lakh hectares, but lower-than-expected expansion in some key growing regions has raised concerns over overall production. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, down from more than 20 lakh bags last season, significantly reducing the supply buffer. However, upside remains capped as monsoon activity improved across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka during mid-July, while reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh improved water availability for the vegetative phase. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, with crop conditions improving. Recent widespread rainfall across major turmeric-growing regions is expected to accelerate sowing, while high prices may encourage farmers to expand acreage during the ongoing Kharif season. Demand fundamentals remain supportive, with India’s turmeric exports rising 30% year-on-year to 17,987 tonnes in June 2026 from 13,787 tonnes a year earlier. Cumulative April-June exports increased 8% to 51,987 tonnes, compared with 47,950 tonnes last year. China’s cumulative imports surged 2,710% to 2,108 tonnes, while Oman shipments rose 469% to 2,342 tonnes. Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Uruguay also recorded strong growth, supporting broad-based export demand. European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations remain a key market factor, with non-IPM compliant lots facing rejections and discounts, while growing demand for IPM-certified turmeric supports compliant stocks. In Nizamabad, spot turmeric ended 0.49% lower at Rs20,003.4, indicating some divergence from futures. Technically, turmeric is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 8.21% to 35,190 contracts while prices gained Rs120. Support is placed at Rs20,862, below which prices could test Rs20,590, while resistance is seen at Rs21,348; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs21,562.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20590-21562.

* Turmeric gains amid a hand-to-mouth supply situation, and fears of El Nino impact the crop

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* Continued dry conditions during the early growth and development stages could adversely affect yields, thereby further supporting prices.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20003.4 Rupees dropped by -0.49 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.53% higher at Rs20,765 amid tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, although overall physical crop availability remains stable. Daily arrivals at major markets including Unjha in Gujarat and Rajasthan have started tapering, while blight outbreaks in key Gujarat growing areas have reduced the quality and quantity of harvestable produce. Farmers are aggressively liquidating stocks to generate cash for Kharif sowing, while favorable weather allowed harvesting and drying to progress rapidly, accelerating deliveries. NCDEX warehouse stocks have continued to build, reducing urgency among traders, while large industrial spice grinders remain cautious and prefer hand-to-mouth purchases. Production is estimated at 90-92 lakh bags for the current season, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. Internationally, China’s production estimate has been reduced to 70,000-80,000 tonnes from earlier expectations near 1 lakh tonne due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce around 9,000-10,000 tonnes, 10,000-11,000 tonnes and 10,000-12,000 tonnes respectively. Improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria may pressure Indian export premiums, although European and North American buyers are showing renewed interest in residue-compliant and high-specification lots. India’s jeera exports declined 34% year-on-year to 10,713 tonnes in June 2026 from 16,322 tonnes, while April-June exports fell 25% to 44,144 tonnes. However, exports to Singapore, Oman and Argentina showed strong growth, with cumulative shipments rising 1,040%, 265% and 333% respectively. In Unjha, spot prices ended 0.11% higher at Rs20,519.2. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to disrupt logistics and traditional demand, limiting the upside. Technically, jeera is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 11.69% to 9,516 contracts while prices gained Rs110. Support is placed at Rs20,650, below which prices could test Rs20,540, while resistance is seen at Rs20,850; a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs20,940.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20540-20940.

* Jeera gains amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* Total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots like Unjha (Gujarat) and Rajasthan have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20519.2 Rupees gained by 0.11 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views