Copper prices are expected remain under reassure amid sluggish demand growth and rising inventory levels in LME - ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
* Spot Gold is likely to hold support near $3330 and rise towards $3410 on growing bets of loose monetary policy from the US Fed. Recent economic numbers from US raised concerns over weaker labor market. Further, tariff concerns and weakness in the US economy would increase its investment outlook. A strong demand for global gold-backed ETFs and geopolitical turbulence would support prices to stay firm. Additionally, increasing probability of interest rate cut by bank of England in its next policy would also help the bullions to stay firm. Meanwhile, investors will eye on comments from Fed members to get more clarity.
* On the data front, a strong call base at 3450 might act as immediate hurdle. MCX Gold October is expected to hold support near Rs.100,500 and move higher towards Rs.101,800 level. A move above Rs.101,800 would open the doors towards Rs.102,200
* MCX Silver Sep is expected to hold the key support near Rs.112,000 and move higher towards Rs.114,800 level.
Base Metal Outlook
* Copper prices are expected remain under reassure amid sluggish demand growth and rising inventory levels in LME. Improved mine supply in the first half of this year would ease supply concerns. Moreover, Trump’s decision to spare refined copper from the 50% tariffs would also weigh on prices. Most traders from US have diverted the shipments to gain disparity in prices. Meanwhile, supply concerns from Chile could limit its downside.
* MCX Copper August is expected to consolidate between Rs.878 and Rs.890 level. Only a move below Rs.878 level prices may turn weak towards Rs.872 level
* MCX Aluminum August is expected to rise towards Rs.254 level as long as it holds above 50-day EMA at Rs.248 level. MCX Zinc August is likely to move north towards Rs.268 level as long as it stays above Rs.262 level.
Energy Outlook
* Crude oil is likely to remain under pressure on signs of a negotiation in the Russia-Ukraine war. As Russia is considering a pause on air strikes to try and fend Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions. Focus will remain on US envoy Steve Witkoff’s visit to Russia. Meanwhile, higher OPEC+ supplies and concerns over weaker US economic numbers would also weigh on prices. Meanwhile, a surprise drop in weekly API crude oil inventory numbers would limit its downside. US crude oil inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels reversing previous weeks gain of 1.53 million barrels.
* On the data front, 65 put strike has higher OI concentration which would act as key support. On the upside 70 call strike, has higher OI concentration, which would likely to act as immediate hurdle. MCX Crude oil Aug is likely to dip towards Rs.5640 level as long as it stays below Rs.5800 level.
* MCX Natural gas August future is expected to consolidate in the band of Rs.258 and ?272. Only above Rs.272 it would turn bullish and rise towards Rs.280.
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