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In-line operating performance; lower tax outgo boosts APAT

Highlights of standalone results:

* 4QFY25 revenue at INR344b (-6% YoY and +5% QoQ) came in line with our estimate. The QoQ increase was driven by seasonally higher volumes and a marginal increase in realizations.

* Steel production stood at 5.24mt (flat YoY) and deliveries stood at 5.6mt (+3% YoY), in line with our estimates.

* ASP remained flat QoQ and declined 9% YoY to INR61,427/t.

* EBITDA stood at INR69.8b (-13% YoY and -7% QoQ), in line with our estimate. EBITDA/t came in at INR12,470/t (-16% YoY and -12% QoQ) vs. our estimate of INR12,370/t.

* 4Q APAT stood at INR37b (-21% YoY and -8% QoQ) vs. our estimate of INR36b.

* For FY25, revenue declined 6% YoY to INR1,325b, EBITDA was down 7% YoY at INR279b, and APAT fell 19% YoY to INR149b.

Highlights of consolidated results:

* Revenue of INR562b (-4% YoY and +5% QoQ) was in line with our estimate. Sales volume stood at 8.3mt (+4% YoY/+8% QoQ), which was offset by muted ASP of INR67,489/t (-8% YoY/-3% QoQ).

* Adjusted EBITDA stood at INR65.6b (-1% YoY and -8% QoQ), in line with our estimate of INR64.4b, translating into EBITDA/t of INR7,874 (-5% YoY and -15% QoQ) in 4QFY25.

* 4Q APAT stood at INR16.9b (+40% YoY and +128% QoQ) against our estimate of INR6.5b, aided by lower tax outgo.

* For FY25, revenue declined 5% YoY to INR2,185b, EBITDA grew 13% YoY to INR253b and APAT rose 27% YoY to INR43b.

* Recommended a dividend of INR3.6 per share.

* Capex stood at INR32b (INR157b in FY25). Net debt stood at INR825b.

Highlights of European operations:

* Consolidated steel deliveries stood at 2.38mt (+12% YoY/+13% QoQ), in line with our estimate.

* Revenue stood at INR208b (flat YoY and +6% QoQ) and EBITDA loss stood at INR7.5b (flat YoY and QoQ), in line with our estimates.

* EBITDA loss per ton reduced to USD38/t in 4QFY25 vs. USD42/t in 3QFY25 and USD38/t in 4QFY24 (vs. our estimate of USD40/t). UK operation fixed costs declined by ~GBP230m.

Other highlights:

* Net debt stood at INR826b as of 4QFY25 vs. INR775b in 3QFY25. Net debt-toEBITDA ratio stood at 3.2x as of 4QFY25 vs. 3.31x in 3QFY25.

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