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Miss led by a weak refining performance

• HPCL’s EBITDA came in at INR76.7b, down 9% vs. our estimate.
• The miss was due to a lower-than-estimated GRM, which was 59% below our estimate at USD3.1/bbl.
• Refining throughput was in line at 6.7mmt. Marketing volumes also came in line at 13mmt.
• Marketing margin (including inv.) stood at ~INR7/lit (est. INR6.4/lit). ? LPG under-recovery stood at INR21.5b (down 35% QoQ).
• PAT came in 11% below our est. at INR43.7b. Other income and finance costs were below our estimates.
• In 1Q, HPCL had a forex loss of INR0.7b.
• As of Jun’25, HPCL had a cumulative negative net buffer of INR130b due to the under-recovery on LPG cylinders (INR109b as of Mar’24).
• As of Jun’25, gross debt stood at INR510b (down INR123b QoQ).

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