Commodity Weekly Insights 21 July 2025 Axis Securities
NIFTY Index Highlights:
Nifty futures closed at 25,032.3 on Friday, down 0.8% with a 10.8% rise in open interest, signaling a Short build-up.
Bank Nifty futures settled at 56,415.6, down 0.9% (502 points), with a 17.2% rise in open interest, indicating a Short build-up.
India VIX declined by 3.6%, falling from 11.82% to 11.39%, indicating a slight drop in market volatility.
FII Long-Short Ratio fell from 0.25 to 0.18, signaling a stronger bearish stance as fresh shorts were added and long positions reduced.
Total outstanding open interest in Nifty and Bank Nifty futures were 1.92 cr units (prev: 1.77 cr) and 0.28 cr units (prev: 0.24 cr), respectively.
Nifty PCR OI:
The Nifty (PCR) recorded a marginal increase of 0.02 this week, with call option activity outpacing puts—indicating a mild leaning toward bearish sentiment among market participants.
Open Interest Analysis:
The strike-concentration for the upcoming expiry on July 24 shows that the Nifty has strong supports at 24,900, 24,800 and 24,500, while resistance can be seen near 25,000, 25,300 and 25,500.
The strike concentration for the July expiration shows that the Bank Nifty has strong supports at 56,000, 55,000, and 54,000, while resistance rests at 57,000, 58,000, and 57,500.
Volatility Analysis:
The implied volatility curve mostly shifted higher this past week compared to previously, except for far OTM options. This means that as of Friday, market participants were expecting the upcoming week to have a bigger range of swings based on options set to expire on July 24.
Additionally, implied volatility for 2.5% OTM puts rose while that for similar distance calls remained flat, which meant that expectations are for the market to have a bearish undertone for the coming week.
FII total open interest in Index Futures stood at 40,049 cr, an increase of 6,903 cr from last week.
Foreigners had 2,11,622 index futures contracts open, up a net of 37,410 contracts from the previous week. Nifty Futures saw an addition of 30,387 contracts, while Bank Nifty saw an addition of 6,210 contracts.
Trade Ideas:
Buy PRESTIGE July Futures in the 1782 – 1760 range | SL 1750 | Targets 1846 & 1878 (Long Build Up).
Buy BLUESTARCO July Futures in 1845 – 1825 range | SL 1805 | Targets 1925 & 1965 (Short Covering).
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