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* Comex Gold snapped a three-day winning streak, declining nearly 1% in the previous session following stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll data, which triggered profit booking. Market participants now shift focus to this week’s FOMC minutes and Jobless Claims data, which may keep prices volatile amid mixed signals

* Nymex Crude Oil settled lower by 0.5% ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. In the morning session, prices slipped further by almost 2% after OPEC+ announced a higher-than-expected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August. The decision weighed on prices as supply concerns eased

* Comex Copper corrected over 1% on Friday as renewed demand concerns from China dampened sentiment. Fabricators in China are reportedly pulling back on purchases due to elevated prices, interrupting the bullish momentum that had lifted copper to a three-month high earlier in the week

* Nymex Natural Gas extended its losing streak for the second consecutive session, shedding nearly 0.5% in the last session after bearish inventory data triggered a sell-off. In the morning session, prices declined by more than 2%, as updated weather forecasts pointed to reduced summer demand, keeping the overall sentiment weak.

The Week That Was

* Comex gold prices surged over 1.5% on Friday, buoyed by rising concerns about the US fiscal deficit and ongoing tariff uncertainties, which reignited safe-haven demand. A weakening dollar index, which slipped toward multi-year lows, provided additional support for the metal. However, the better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data triggered profit-taking, dragging prices from the $3,360 mark down to $3,330. That said, expectations for a rate cut in September have intensified, with the CME FedWatch Tool assigning a 91.5% probability of easing. Markets now factoring in around 65 bps of cuts by year-end, both of which could remain supportive for gold.

* Silver prices advanced nearly 2.5% last week, drawing strength from the softer dollar and broader bullish momentum in bullion. Renewed global trade tensions added to the safe-haven appeal, especially after President Trump indicated plans to issue letters regarding new tariff impositions or possible extensions, injecting further uncertainty into global markets. Despite this, the metal’s upside was capped following stronger-than-anticipated US jobs data for Jun’25, which tempered recession fears and slowed momentum.

* WTI crude futures jumped more than 3% in the last session, driven by heightened geopolitical risk after the US took decisive steps to limit Iranian oil trade. The Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control acted against networks facilitating these trades, while the State Department imposed sanctions targeting oil smugglers. Additionally, upbeat US economic data improved the demand outlook for crude, lending further support to prices.

* Copper futures ended flat just above the $5 level last week. Market participants have begun redirecting shipments to the US in anticipation of potential import tariffs, leading to significant inventory drawdowns at both LME and SHFE warehouses. Speculation around a 10% duty on US copper imports has widened the price differential between Comex and LME contracts to nearly $1,300 per ton. Meanwhile, a private survey revealed an unexpected rebound in Chinese manufacturing activity in June, suggesting a possible lift in demand from the world’s largest copper consumer amid signs of easing trade frictions with the US.

MCX Gold

Technical Outlook:

MCX Gold prices gained over 1.5% last week, supported by a rebound from the 60 RSI zone and a close above the 9-week EMA, both indicating a mildly positive bias. However, the metal struggled to sustain above the immediate resistance zone near Rs 97,600, raising short-term concerns about bullish momentum. On the momentum front, the MACD line has crossed below the signal line, suggesting that upward momentum is weakening. A failure to hold above the Rs 97,500 level may lead to further corrective pressure. While the medium-term trend remains intact, the immediate outlook hinges on whether prices can reclaim and sustain above the Rs 97,600 resistance zone

Recommendation :

We recommend selling MCX Gold around Rs 97,500, with a stoploss above Rs 100,000 and targets of Rs 93,000 and Rs 91,000.

Current market price (CMP): Rs 97,000

MCX Silver

Technical Outlook:

MCX Silver rallied nearly 2% last week, outperforming the broader precious metals segment. The metal staged a breakout from a tight three-week consolidation range, signalling renewed bullish momentum. More significantly, the move confirms a breakout from a multi-year ascending triangle pattern, indicating a structural shift in long-term sentiment. Momentum indicators remain supportive of the uptrend. The RSI stands at and continues to trend higher, reflecting strong bullish momentum without yet entering overbought territory. Overall, the trend remains positive. As long as prices sustain above the Rs 1,03,000 level, dips are expected to attract buying interest.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Silver around Rs 1,07,000, with a stop-loss below Rs 1,04,000 and targets of Rs 1,11,000 and Rs 1,14,000.

Current market price (CMP): Rs 1,08,400

MCX Crude

Technical Outlook:

MCX Crude Oil recovered and ended the week with gains of over 1.4%. Prices have been holding above the Rs 5,500 mark for the past four weeks, highlighting a key demand zone. However, despite the recent bounce, the broader trend remains under pressure as prices continue to trade below both the 9 and 50 week EMAs, indicating a bearish bias. Momentum also remains weak, with the RSI hovering below the 50 level, suggesting that upside strength is limited at this stage. A weekly close below Rs 5,500 would confirm a breakdown from the current consolidation and could open the door for a deeper correction toward the Rs 5,200 zone.

Recommendation:

We recommend selling MCX Crude oil below Rs 5,500, with a stop-loss above Rs 5,750 and targets of Rs 5,200 and Rs 5,100.

Current market price (CMP): Rs 5,691

MCX Copper

Technical Outlook:

MCX Copper settled on a flat note last week. Although prices briefly broke above the Rs 900 mark, the breakout lacked followthrough, and the contract slipped back to close around Rs 891. More notably, a potential Shooting Star candlestick has emerged on the weekly chart, indicating a reversal near the mentioned level, i.e. Rs 900. Despite this, the near-term outlook remains constructive as prices continue to trade comfortably above the 9- week EMA, indicating the broader uptrend is still intact. However, caution is warranted in the short term as price action suggests hesitation near resistance, and failure to sustain above Rs 900 may lead to mild profit-booking or consolidation in the sessions ahead.

Recommendation:

We recommend buying MCX Copper above Rs 905, with a stoploss below Rs 885 and targets of Rs 925 and Rs 930.

Current market price (CMP): Rs 893.

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