Commodity Research - Morning Insight - 17 Feb 2026 by Kotak Securities
Bullion – Spot gold and silver retreated nearly 1% on Monday, settling below $4,995 and $77 respectively, as the Dollar rebounded above 97 amid thin liquidity. Trading volumes were subdued with US markets shut for Presidents’ Day and extended holidays in China limiting broader participation. Despite the pullback, markets continue to price in roughly 60 bps of Fed easing by year-end, supported by resilient Nonfarm Payrolls data and softer inflation readings, with expectations of at least two rate cuts this year. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated after Iran’s naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed US-Iran negotiations in Geneva, alongside Russia-Ukraine talks, keep risk premiums alive. Gold prices slipped below the $4,930 before rebounding above $4,950, as focus shifts to the Empire State Manufacturing Index and a packed week of US macro releases, including FOMC minutes, GDP revisions, jobless claims, durable goods orders, and core PCE data.
Crude Oil – WTI Crude oil gained 1% to $63.7/bbl on Monday as traders weighed persistent geopolitical risks ahead of key diplomatic meetings scheduled for Tuesday, including a 2 nd round of U.S.–Iran talks and trilateral discussions involving Russian, Ukrainian, and U.S. officials aimed at advancing efforts to end the war in Ukraine. There are reports that OPEC+ may consider increasing production starting in April to meet peak summer fuel demand in the group’s March 1 meeting. Today, oil prices climbed to $63.9/bbl amid heightening risks to 20% of global oil flows following reports that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard was conducting naval drills near the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister met with the head of the IAEA, signaling continued diplomatic engagement on nuclear-related issues.
Natural Gas – NYMEX gas futures closed 4% lower yesterday at $3.099/mmBtu as forecasts of higher-than-normal temperatures over the next two weeks hurt heating demand prospects.
Base metals – Base metals started the week on a weaker note, with prices largely pressured by subdued trading activity and thin liquidity amid holiday closures across key markets. Zinc emerged as the top laggard, declining over 1% to settle near $3,200/ton, while copper slipped marginally to around $12,850/ton. Copper extended last week’s decline, easing nearly 1% as mainland Chinese participation remained limited during the Lunar New Year holidays, suppressing liquidity and near-term demand cues. The pullback follows a speculative-driven surge in late January that briefly propelled prices to record highs before sentiment softened. Despite short-term weakness, the outlook remains supportive as BHP Group reported stronger-than-anticipated earnings, with copper surpassing iron ore as its primary profit driver, accelerating demand from AI-linked power consumption and the global energy transition.
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