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Below the coming week's market report from Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, of Master Capital Services Ltd.

Benchmark Indices performed exceptionally well in 2023 hitting consecutive record highs. Nifty marked the 8th consecutive year of positive returns by posting impressive double-digit gains of around 18%. Nifty Small cap surged 54% and midcap more than 44%. India become a stock market superpower with market capitalisation surpassing the $4 trillion mark securing fifth position after the US, China, Japan, and Hong Kong.

Indian market started the year on an optimistic note but declined in the first two months recording negative returns in four months of 2023- Jan, Feb, Aug and Oct. But was positive in the remaining 8 months posting many record highs. Dec being the best month with Nifty surging over 7% within a month.

The market showed remarkable resilience despite the global crisis, inflation, rising crude price, peak in US bond yield, US banking crisis, rising interest rates, and global geopolitical tensions such as the Israel-Hamas War, and Russia-Ukraine war.

On the domestic front, India became the fastest-growing and the fifth-largest economy globally. RBI raised the repo rate initially in Feb to 6.5% but paused later to maintain a balance between growth rate and inflation. India’s GDP growth rate was 7.6% in Q2FY24 and RBI raised its guidance for FY24 GDP to 7% from 6.3%. US Fed signaled at minimum 3 rate cuts in 2024.  

The market is steeping into 2024 with record highs, In the upcoming year, major domestic and global factors will influence the market movement. Market crucial events that should be tracked in 2024 are the upcoming quarterly earnings season, the Budget and the General elections, the Fed rate decision, and the US presidential election.

The market outlook for 2024 is expected to be positive considering Positive GDP growth prospects, macroeconomic environment improving, better demand, manageable inflation, steady interest rates, robust quarterly numbers potential, and continuity of current govt.  

Sensex and Nifty traded lower in the last session of 2023 amid weak cues from global peers and selling in index heavyweights. RIL, Infosys, and bank stocks were among the top index drags. Nifty settled the week at 21731.40 after making its fresh all-time high at 21801.45, while, Sensex settled the week at 72240.26 and Bank nifty closed the week at 48292.25.

Nifty is establishing new higher highs on the daily scale. Potential support levels are identified at 21,600 and 21,500, while immediate resistance is anticipated at 21,900, followed by 22,000.

Shifting focus to Bank Nifty, a break above the 48,650 level could lead to further upside, targeting 49000. Conversely, a crucial support level lies at 47800 with the possibility of the price remaining sideways in the range of 47800 to 48400.

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