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A platform play on metals, recycling and green transitio

Jain Resource Recycling (JAINREC) is one of India’s largest non-ferrous metal recyclers, operating an integrated, multi-material processing platform. The growth story of JAINREC is fueled by its forward integration, potential ‘greenium’ benefits and diversification into critical metals.

* The copper supply gap is structurally widening, with demand expected to grow ~1.5x by 2040, while only ~70% of requirements may be met through mining by 2035. Long ~15-year new mine gestation periods and disruptions at key mines in Indonesia and Chile further constrain primary supply, accelerating reliance on recycled copper.

* In such a tightening supply scenario, JAINREC’s forward integration into value-added copper products (Scrap → Ingots → Anodes → Cathodes → Wire Rods, Busbars, etc.) is strategically aligned with the fastest-growing new-age copper demand engines (AI-driven data centers and EVs), where the intensity of copper is high (EVs use 3-4x vs. ICE vehicles; data centers 30- 45 MT/MW). This demand will be driven by rapid EV penetration globally (44% by CY35 vs. 22% in CY25) and India’s data center expansion (4.5-6.5GW by 2030).

* Large OEMs indicate a shift in their policy toward green procurement, with players like Apple, Siemens and ABB willing to pay a premium for lowcarbon inputs. This evolving preference is giving rise to ‘greenium’ (green premium), with institutions like the London Metal Exchange (LME) exploring differentiated pricing for low-carbon metals, which could provide additional realization upside.

* Beyond copper, JAINREC is de-risking growth through a multi-metal recycling strategy with an entry into critical metals such as tin (already operational) and antimony (under implementation), along with JV-led backward integration into scrap sourcing (US JV with C&Y) and battery recycling (Kuwait JV with Abraj Al Khaleej), which together strengthen feedstock security, improve supply stability and enhance per MT profitability.

* Overall, we like JAINREC for its structurally advantaged positioning amid tightening copper supply, emerging green metal pricing differentiation and growth de-risking through integration and diversification. We expect a CAGR of 32%/34%/38% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY26-28E. We value the stock at 23x FY28E EPS to arrive at our TP of INR560 and reiterate our BUY rating.

JAINREC aligned itself with future copper demand

* The global copper end-user demand landscape is shifting from traditional construction-heavy consumption toward electrical applications, driven by the energy transition (EVs, renewables) and digital infrastructure (AI, data centers). Among these, electrification and clean energy (EVs, renewables, grid) are already the largest incremental contributors.

* This shift is materially changing the end-use mix. Clean energy applications alone are projected to account for ~61% of total copper consumption by 2040, up sharply from ~25% today. At the same time, globally EV penetration is accelerating (est. ~44% by 2035 vs. 22% in 2025), with each EV using 3-4x more copper than ICE vehicles.

* With strong demand tailwinds as discussed above, the company is aligning itself to capture the growing copper demand by expanding its copper recycling capacity to 100k MT by FY28 from 83k MT today. This strategy is supported by a structural rise in copper demand (~1.5x by 2040) amid supply constraints (only ~70% met via mining by 2035), driving greater reliance on recycling.

* Further to improve its product mix, JAINREC is setting up value-added copper product capacity of 18k MT in FY27, which will be utilized to produce downstream products such as anode, cathode, busbar and wire rods, which are seeing increasing traction from new-age technologies.

* For instance, data centers are emerging as a powerful incremental demand driver. The rapid proliferation of AI and digital infrastructure is driving the need for highly reliable, low-loss power distribution systems, where busbar trunking systems are increasingly preferred over conventional cabling due to superior scalability, safety and space efficiency

* As data centers scale up in both size and power density, their electrical architecture becomes significantly more copper-intensive, particularly in highspec applications such as busbars and power distribution systems.

* In India, this trend is becoming increasingly visible. Data center capacity is expected to expand from ~1.7GW currently to ~4.5-6.5GW by 2030, with ~220MW of incremental capacity added in CY26 alone. Given copper intensity of ~30-45 MT/MW, this implies incremental copper demand of ~6.6-9k MT from CY26 additions alone, creating a strong and sustainable demand tailwind.

* As a result, downstream JAINREC’s fabricated products such as wire rods (capacity 7.2k MT), busbars (capacity 6k MT) and cathode (capacity 18k MT) are witnessing disproportionate demand, with the global busbar market itself projected to nearly double by 2035 (from USD15.7b to USD27.7b), driven by EVs and data centers (as per industry sources).

* JAINREC’s foray into value-added copper products such as cathodes, busbars and wire rods is a well-timed strategic move, as the evolving end-user demand mix, particularly the rise of EVs and data centers, structurally tilts in favor of these segments. We expect this value-added segment to contribute ~13% to revenue and 10% to EBITDA by FY28E.

Large OEMs driving the shift toward green metals

* Green metal is defined as metal produced or recycled with low CO? intensity (e.g. top-quartile emissions such as 70%), and strong recycling and responsible sourcing practices aligned with established frameworks.

* The rationale for green metal is also compelling, as recycled copper requires up to ~85% lower energy vs. primary production, which translates into significantly lower carbon emissions and makes it a preferred input for global OEMs seeking to reduce Scope 3 emissions.

* Importantly, large corporates such as Apple, Siemens and ABB are committed to procuring low-carbon materials even at a premium, which indicates acceptability of green metal at a premium.

* Effective Apr’26, EPR norms in India mandate producers to ensure recycling of non-ferrous metal scrap and meet targets. This, alongside potential recycled content mandates and favorable treatment for low-carbon metals in export markets, further confirms the differentiated treatment of green metal. (refer Exhibit 9)

* Here, JAINREC benefits from a strong intrinsic advantage, as recycled metals have only ~1-10% of the carbon footprint of primary metals, positioning the company favorably as customers increasingly prioritize low-emission supply chains; further their setup of scrap to cathode to finished products enables traceability and certification of green copper.

* The use of renewable energy (including captive solar power) in its operations further reduces carbon footprint, allowing JAINREC to offer near-zero emission copper products while retaining cost competitiveness, creating a differentiated “green + low-cost” positioning vs. peers, especially in export markets (by avoiding carbon-related tariffs and meeting stringent ESG norms). ? Overall, strong OEM demand, regulatory support and premiumization of lowcarbon materials position JAINREC to benefit from the shift toward green metals and provide better realizations.

JAINREC positioned to capture potential ‘greenium’ upside

* JAINREC’s new plant is India’s first green copper cathode plant because of its scrap-based, renewable-powered production process. Through this downstream copper project at Jain Green Technologies (Unit 3), the company is extending its integration across the value chain, from scrap to anodes and onward to finished copper products.

* The emerging concept of a ‘greenium’, with institutions like LME exploring differentiated pricing for low-carbon metals, could provide additional realization upside and support a shift from pure commodity pricing to qualitylinked pricing, particularly for cathodes and downstream products.

* At the operational level, the Unit 3 project represents a significant forward integration step, with phased capacity additions across the value chain. Copper anodes are expected to scale up to 1,600 MT/month (Phase 1 commissioned in 4QFY26 and Phase 2 in 1QFY27), while copper cathodes would reach 1,500 MT/month (with commissioning in 1QFY27 and ramp-up by 3QFY27), supported by downstream capacity of ~600 MT/month in wire rods and ~500 MT/month in busbars and profiles, enabling JAINREC to capture higher value addition beyond primary refining.

* JAINREC’s ability to offer traceable, low-carbon copper (from scrap to ingots to finished products) positions it favorably with global OEMs seeking to reduce Scope 3 emissions, thereby enhancing its potential to command a ‘greenium,’ as similar premiumization trends have already been observed in rPET.

* We believe the plant’s fully integrated setup from scrap processing to electrolytic refining (~21-day cathode cycle) and downstream fabrication

reduces dependence on external intermediates, improves conversion margins and ensures tighter control over quality and specifications.

Valuation and view

* As a leading player in India’s rapidly growing recycling industry, JAINREC is positioned for long-term growth aided by rising demand for recycled/green metals and a regulatory shift favoring organized players, along with the growth of demand for lead and copper in India outpacing the global demand growth.

* To move up the value chain, JAINREC is focusing on developing higher-value copper products, which should enhance margins and improve earnings visibility. We model EBITDA/MT to increase to ~INR24,275 by FY28 from ~INR18,292 in FY26E.

* Further, medium- to long-term demand for copper is expected to remain strong, driven by the rapid expansion of new-age industries such as renewable energy, data centers, and EVs.

* We expect a CAGR of 32%/34%/38% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY26-28E. We value the stock at 23x FY28 EPS to arrive at our TP of INR560 and reiterate our BUY rating.

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