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Morning Market Outlook

* The market is expected to open sharply lower due to a significant decline across global markets, driven by concerns over trade tariffs, the Dollar Index reaching a one-month high of 107, and a more than 8% drop in Nvidia’s shares, which failed to meet analyst expectations.

* The US market fell 2.5%, closing at a five-month low, while US Treasury yields rose following President Trump's new tariff threats. The updated fourth-quarter economic growth report was decent but not enough to ease investor concerns.

* On a positive note, there was encouraging rollover data for Nifty and Bank Nifty futures, indicating potential strength in the next month.

* Nifty futures rollover stood at 83.57%, surpassing last month's 80.77% and the three-month average of 80.67%, while Bank Nifty futures rollover was at 81.64%, exceeding last month's 79.13%. Given that the Nifty has fallen over 13% and the Nifty Next 50 has dropped more than 25% in the past five months, there may be buying interest at lower levels.

* Additionally, a rally in NBFC stocks is expected to continue after the RBI reduced the risk weights on bank loans to NBFCs from 125% to 100%, effective April 1.

NIFTY (CMP : 22545) :

Nifty immediate support is at 22400 then 22250 zones while resistance at 22650 then 22800 zones. Now till it holds below 22650 zones, weakness could be seen towards 22400 then 22250 zones whereas hurdles are placed at 22650 then 22800 zones.

BANK NIFTY (CMP : 48743) :

Bank Nifty support is at 48500 then 48250 zones while resistance at 48950 then 49150 zones. Now till it holds below 48950 zones some weakness could be seen towards 48500 then 48250 zones while on the upside hurdle is seen at 48950 then 49150 levels.

Derivative Outlook

* Nifty March future closed at 22,683.65 with a premium of 138.60 point v/s 34.60 point premium in the last session.

* Nifty Put/Call Ratio (OI) increased from 0.77 to 0.98 level.

* India VIX decreased by 2.97% to 13.31 level.

* On option front, Maximum Call OI is at 23000 then 22600 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 22500 then 22000 strike. Call writing is seen at 22600 then 23000 strike while Put writing is seen at 22500 then 22600 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 22000 to 23000 zones while an immediate range between 22300 to 22800 levels.

* Option Buying : Buy weekly Nifty 22500 Put if it holds below 22650 zones. Buy Bank Nifty 47500 Put till it holds below 48950 zones.

* Option Strategy : Nifty weekly Bear Put Spread (Buy 22500 PE and Sell 22300 PE) at net premium cost of 50-60 points. Bank Nifty Bear Put Spread (Buy 48700 PE and Sell 48200 PE) at net premium cost of 170-220 points.

* Option Writing : Sell weekly Nifty 21900 PE and 23100 CE with strict double SL. Sell Bank Nifty 45500 PE and 51500 CE with strict double SL.

Fundamental Outlook

Global Market Summary:

* All the 3 major US indices Plunged on Thursday,

* Dow was down up by 0.45%, S&P down 1.28% and NASDAQ was down 2.75%

* European markets ended on a mixed note, FTSE was up 0.28% while CAC & DAX Down 0.51% & 1.08% respectively

* Dow Futures is up 25 points (+0.06%)

* Most Asian markets are down in vicinity of 0.5-2.8%.

* Global Cues: Mixed

Indian Market Summary:

* Indian market ended flat on Thursday

* Nifty ends 0.001% or 2.50 points down at 22,545.05. Nifty closes in red for seventh session & has fallen for 15 sessions out of the last 16 sessions.

* Broader indices underperformed with Nifty Midcap 150 ended 1.26% lower; Nifty Smallcap 250 closed 1.67% lower

* India's GST collections surge in January 2025: gross up 12.3%, net rises 10.9%

* FIIs: -Rs556 crore DIIs: +Rs1,727 crore.

* Currently GIFT Nifty is indicating a weak start down 113 points (-0.5%).

* Domestic Cues: Mixed

News and Impact :

* Bajaj Auto: Bajaj Auto Ltd Launched Bajaj GoGo, A New Brand For Electric Autos.

Impact: Positive

* Tata Power: TP Solar Ltd., the solar manufacturing arm of Tata Power Co., has secured a contract worth approximately Rs 632 crore from Solar Energy Corp.

Impact: Positive

Fundamental Actionable Idea

Coal india : CMP INR 363 , TP INR 480, 32% Upside, Buy

* The company announced a uniform levy of Rs.300 per tonne across all mines of its subsidiary, Northern Coalfields Ltd (NCL), effective from May 1, 2025. The move, approved by the CIL board, is expected to generate additional revenue of approximately Rs.3,877.50 crore.

* 3QFY25 revenue of INR358b was in line with estimates, led by strong volumes (+15% QoQ). APAT surged 35% QoQ to INR85b, supported by higher-than-expected other income. 3QFY25 revenue of INR358b was in line with estimates, led by strong volumes (+15% QoQ). APAT surged 35% QoQ to INR85b, supported by higher-thanexpected other income. Coal India's production and offtake are expected to sustain strong growth in the near term, with blended ASP stabilizing. The company is on track to meet FY25 targets, supported by robust demand.

View: Buy

Jubiliant Foodworks : CMP INR 670 , TP INR 715

* Technology is touching entire co, with Store.AI emerging as a big differentiator. Also Recent double-digit SSS growth was fueled by innovations, which should continue.

* Jubilant FoodWorks (JUBI) reported a 19% YoY increase in standalone revenue to INR16.1b in 3QFY25, driven by 34% growth in Domino’s orders and 12.5% LFL growth. The waiver of delivery charges has shifted demand from dine-in to delivery, benefiting JUBI amid strong delivery traffic. Delivery is expected to continue outperforming, supporting superior growth compared to peers in the near term. However, operating margin recovery may be slower due to ongoing reinvestments in core capabilities. We maintain our estimate of EBITDA margin reaching 20.5% by FY26E.

View: Postive

Quant Intraday Sell Ideas

What is this?

Based on technical indicators this strategy gives 2 stocks that have a high likelihood to fall during the day (from open to close). This is an intraday Sell strategy which can provide a good cushioning during a black swan event

What are the rules?

* Stock names will be given at market open (9:15 am)

* Recommended time to entry: between 9:15 to 9:30 am.

* Entry: We short 2 stocks daily (intraday)

* Exit: we will exit at 3:15 as this is an intraday call

* SL: is placed at 1% of the open.

* Book profit: At 1% fall since open.

* In special situations the book profit might be delayed if the stock is in free fall.

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