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Nifty : 24715

Technical Outlook

Day that was…

Equity benchmark closed on a positive note ahead of GST council meeting and positive global cues. Nifty gained 0.55% to settle the session at 24715. Market breadth was positive for the Third consecutive session in favor of advances, with an A/D ratio of 2:1 where broader markets outperformed the benchmark. Midcap and Small cap closed on a positive note up 0.65% and 0.89% respectively. Sectorally, barring IT all other indices closed on a positive note, where, Metal, Pharma and PSU Banks outshone.

Technical Outlook:

* Nifty started the day on a flat note, after the initial down move buying demand emerged in the vicinity of previous session’s low. As a result, daily price action formed an Inside bar, indicating positive price action within previous session range.

* Index is likely to open gap-up on back of positive Next –Gen GST reform boosting market sentiment .Key point to highlight is that, index closed in the vicinity of 20-day EMA and a decisive close above it would be the first sign of pause in the downward momentum. Market witnessed third day of broadbased buying, indicating broad based participation supported by improved market breadth signaling inherent strength.

* Going ahead, holding recent low of 24400 levels post GST council meeting will keep pullback option open towards 25000 levels failing to do so strong support is placed at 24200 being 200 days EMA, 38.2% retracement of entire up move seen off April lows, coincided with the previous gap zone of May, which indicates a high probability of demand emergence at lower levels.

* Structurally, Since April 2025, there has been five instances of intermediate corrections on an average in the range of 3–4% within the ongoing bull market, each followed by a gradual recovery. We expect index to maintain the same rhythm as the current corrective phase has approached price wise maturity as it has corrected ~3% and now witnessing time wise correction.

* On the market breadth front the % of stocks above 50 days EMA has bounced from the oversold zone of 25-30 and further improved and currently placed at 40 offering incremental buying opportunity.

* On the broader market front, both Nifty Midcap and small cap closed on a positive note for the third consecutive day closing above previous sessions high and is currently trading in the vicinity of 52-week EMA which has been held since April 2025 offering an incremental buying opportunity, hence focus should be on accumulating quality stocks backed by strong earnings, especially those poised to benefit from next-generation GST reforms expected after the GST Council meeting in this week and upcoming festive season as we believe strong support threshold is at 24200.

* Key monitorable:

* a) Development of Bilateral trade deal negotiations.

* b) U.S. Dollar index continues to trade below the past two years breakdown area of 100, indicating corrective bias while crude oil closed the week on a flat note.

Nifty Bank : 54067

Technical Outlook

Day that was :

* Bank Nifty closed the day on a positive note and settled at 54,067 (+0.76%). Nifty Pvt Bank index mirrored the benchmark, ending the day at 26,282 (+0.74%).

Technical Outlook:

* Bank Nifty opened on a negative note; however, supportive buying emerged near the previous session’s low (53,578), leading to a sharp recovery. Consequently, the daily price action formed a bull candle, signaling the presence of demand from the identical lows of past three days (53,560) that can lead to extended upward momentum.

* Key point to highlight is that Bank Nifty has managed to hold an identical low for the past three sessions, aligning with the 200- day EMA, thereby establishing a strong support base. Going forward, any favorable outcome from the ongoing GST Council meeting could trigger a breakout above the consolidation zone of the last three sessions. A sustained move beyond this level may pave the way for a short covering towards 54,900, which coincides with the 50% retracement of the recent decline (56156- 53561) as well as the 100-day EMA. On the momentum front, Stochastic oscillator is in oversold territory on the weekly timeframe, with reading of 10, indicating that the corrective phase may not last long. Thus, investors should refrain from aggressive selling at current level

* Structurally, since August 2022 there has been five instances where Bank nifty has consistently found support near the 52- week EMA post 10% of a correction and gradual recovery often begins. With the current 7% decline approaching toward the 52- week EMA (52900) and the weekly stochastic entering deeply oversold territory, thereby historical evidence suggest a highprobability inflection zone where downside risk is limited.

* PSU Bank Index outperformed the benchmark and closed on a positive note.. Index maintains the higher-high-low structure for the fourth-consecutive session while reclaiming the position above the 100-day EMA, signaling inherent strength. Furthermore, the index continues to trade well above its previous multiple swing low support which coincides with the 200-day EMA placed near 6700, signals a broader uptrend is still intact

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