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Nifty : 24334

Technical Outlook

Day that was ..

• Equity benchmark extended breather as lingering geopolitical tension weighed on global sentiment. Nifty navigated range bound week and settled on a flat to positive note at 24334. After hitting life time high Midcap index seen minor profit booking, down 1%. Meanwhile, beaten down IT, Consumer discretionary stocks seen extended gains while metal, realty underperformed.

Technical Outlook :

• Nifty 50 index began the week on a positive note and oscillated within previous week’s range wherein supportive efforts emerged near 50-day EMA. Consequently, the weekly price action resulted into inside bar, indicating range bound consolidation amid stock-specific activity.

• Nifty continued to respect the rising trendline, joining the lows of 11th June and 8th July 2026, that reaffirms underlying relative strength. However, due to intensified geopolitical conflict we can expect rise in volatility. In such case, bias would remain positive as long as Nifty holds rising trend line placed at 24100. A decisive close below that would result into extended correction wherein strong support is placed around 23800- 23600 zone.

• Structurally, over past three months index has been oscillating in 1500 points range (24600-23100). Once again Nifty is heading towards upper band of consolidation. The resolute breakout above 24600 would validate a solid higher base formation which would unlock the next leg of mediumterm rally wherein we expect Bank-Nifty to lead the rally.

• In the process, bouts of volatility to remain elevated as we enter the Q1FY27 earning season. Hence, focus should be on accumulating stocks on dips backed by strong earnings as key support is placed around 23600 levels as it is 61.8% retracement of June-July rally (23072-24530) coinciding with the gap area seen during 15th June Following are the key monitorable which would provide cushion to the ongoing up move

• After two months hiatus, the large cap stocks are showing early sign of revival. Over the weekend, key index heavyweights (representing 33% of Nifty weight) are likely to come out with Q1 earnings. Any positive triggers from earnings would fuel the next leg of up move.

• Bank Nifty is resuming uptrend after forming a higher base above its April swing high of 57500 that bodes well for extension of up move towards 60000 levels, being former gap-area created on 2nd March 2026.

• The AI/Semiconductor induced rally in North Asian markets (Kospi, Nikkei, Taiwan) is now showing sign of exhaustion, resulting into extended profit booking. Conversely, this rotation could benefit growth-oriented economies like India.

• During the Russia-Ukraine war (CY22-23) Brent crude oil corrected ~50% and subsequently staged a 34% pullback before entering into a consolidation phase. In the current scenario, we expect similar stabilization process to pan out as after May-June correction (40%), brent crude has already seen ~25% rally from recent low of $70. Stabilization of crude from hereon would eventually provide much need cushion to equities

Intraday Rational :

• Trend – supportive efforts emerged near 50-day EMA that coinciding with the rising trendline, indicating positive bias

• Levels – Buy around 61.8% retracement of Fridays range

Nifty Bank : 58521

Technical Outlook

Week that was : Bank Nifty remained range bound throughout the week and settled week on a positive note at 58521, up 0.8%.

Te chnical Outlook :

• Index began the week on a positive note and oscillated within previous week’s range wherein supportive efforts emerged near 20-day EMA. Consequently, the weekly price action resulted into bull candle with higher high higher low indicating positive bias.

• Over past five week despite geopolitical uncertainty, Index is consolidating above April swing high of 57456 levels and forming higher base above 52-week EMA. Past 5 weeks Index has been trading in range (58700-56500) above cluster of moving averages indicating healthy consolidation and is now on verge of breakout, which has set the stage to gradually head towards swing high of 60000 in coming weeks.

• Key point to highlight is that on daily charts Index has generated golden crossover where 50-day EMA has crossed above 200-day EMA structural improvement which would gradually surpass 58700 & unlock the next leg of up move towards medium term.

• Index has seen slower pace of retracement wherein 3 weeks rally its has retraced less than 38.2% this makes us retain revise support upwards at 57300 levels being 61.8% retracement of recent up move coinciding with last weeks low.

• PSU Bank Index has formed Inside bar and is seen taking breather above 52-week EMA, thereby reaffirming strong base at 8100 levels. Going ahead follow through strength above last weeks high would set the stage towards 8500.

Intraday Rational :

• Trend - Supportive efforts emerged from 20-day EMA while sustaining above the cluster of key moving averages, indicating inherent strenght.

• Levels : Buy around 61.8% retracement of Fridays range

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