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PAX increases on robust demand; IndiGo share at ~64%

* Domestic air passenger (PAX) traffic grew ~8% YoY in Dec’24 to 14.9m (up ~5% MoM). It was above pre-Covid levels. Passenger growth increased for all airlines with a double-digit MoM growth seen for Air India and SpiceJet.

* The average domestic Passenger Load Factor (PLF) declined 50bp MoM in Dec’24. PLF rose MoM for IndiGo and Akasa while it declined for Air India and SpiceJet. The OnTime Performance (OTP) declined 260bp MoM for airlines; the domestic average was 64.2% in Dec’24. The cancellation rate declined 20bp to 1% in Dec’24.

* IndiGo’s market share improved following the collapse of GoFirst, which ceased operations in May’23. It has maintained a 60%+ share since then. IndiGo’s market share has been increasing steadily during the past six months.

India's domestic air PAX and market share

* India's domestic air PAX increased ~8% YoY (increased ~5% MoM) to 14.9m in Dec’24. Domestic PAX stood at 9.6m for IndiGo (up 13% YoY), 4m for AI group (up 5% YoY), 0.7m for Akasa (up 14% YoY), and 0.5m for SpiceJet (down 37% YoY).

* Domestic market share stood at 64.4% for IndiGo (up 260bp YoY), 27.1% for the AI group (down 80bp YoY), 4.6% for Akasa (up 20bp YoY), and 3.3% for SpiceJet (down 230bp YoY).

Domestic industry’s PLF and OTP

* Domestic PLF stood at 78.1% in Dec’24 (78.6% in Nov’24 and 83.3% Dec’23). PLF stood at 90.6% for IndiGo (down 10bp YoY), 84.7% for the AI group (down 550bp YoY), 93.3% for Akasa (down 60bp YoY), and 87.4% for SpiceJet (down 610bp YoY).

* The average OTP for domestic airlines at the top four airports was at 64.2% (up 420bp YoY/down 260bp MoM). OTP stood at 73.4% for IndiGo (up 540bp YoY), 67.6% for Air India group (up 460bp YoY), 62.7% for Akasa (down ~10pp YoY), and 61.5% for SpiceJet (up ~32pp YoY).

Other highlights

The Air Turbine Fuel (ATF) price for Jan’25’td is at INR90,455/klit (down 11% YoY/down 2% MoM). For 3QFY25, the ATF price stood at INR89,998/klit (down 6% QoQ and down 20% YoY), while for 2QFY25, it stood at INR95,868/klit (down 3% QoQ). Currently, Brent crude stands at USD79.4/bbl (average of USD79.6/bbl in Jan’24’td and USD74.6/bbl in 3QFY25).

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