Argentina Raises Wheat and Corn Forecasts Amid Strong Export Demand by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
Argentina’s grain outlook for marketing year 2026/27 has improved, with wheat production forecast at 23 million metric tons (MMT) and corn output at 62 MMT, supported by favorable moisture conditions and higher expected yields. Wheat exports are projected at 17 MMT, while corn shipments could reach 43 MMT, both potentially the second-highest levels on record. However, barley production is revised down to 4.8 MMT, while sorghum output is forecast at 3 MMT. Rice production and exports are expected to increase. An unusually strong El Niño event and excessive November–December rainfall remain major risks to harvesting, crop quality and yields.
Key Highlights
• Argentina’s wheat production forecast rises to 23 MMT, supported by favorable rainfall and improved crop yields.
• Corn output is projected at 62 MMT, while exports could reach 43 MMT in 2026/27.
• Wheat farmgate prices increased to $230 per ton from $185 a year earlier, reflecting strong export demand.
• Barley production is revised down to 4.8 MMT, with exports forecast at 3.3 MMT.
• Excessive November–December rainfall linked to El Niño could disrupt harvesting, reduce grain quality and affect final output.
Argentine wheat farmgate prices for December 2026 delivery have risen to around $230 per ton, compared with $185 per ton a year earlier, supported by strong international demand. Wheat prices have remained firm despite concerns over below-normal grain quality, while producers continue to face tight profit margins. Barley prices have also improved, with December delivery feed barley quoted at $210–$215 per ton and malting barley at $230–$240 per ton. Regional rice prices strengthened in September as Brazilian farmers limited sales amid expectations of higher prices.
Favorable rainfall and improved yield prospects have strengthened Argentina's wheat and corn production outlook for marketing year 2026/27. According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, wheat production is forecast at 23 million metric tons (MMT), up 1.4 MMT from the previous estimate. Corn production is projected at 62 MMT, an increase of 1.5 MMT from the earlier forecast. Strong export demand, including purchases from Brazil and other international markets, is supporting the outlook. Wheat exports are forecast at 17 MMT, while corn shipments could reach 43 MMT, potentially the second-highest volumes on record for both commodities.
However, excessive soil moisture reduced the intended wheat planting area in some regions, while higher fertilizer costs and disease concerns continue to influence farm profitability. Barley production is revised down by 300,000 tons to 4.8 MMT because of reduced harvested area, with exports projected at 3.3 MMT.
Sorghum production is forecast at 3 MMT, down 200,000 tons from the previous estimate, while exports remain projected at 1.5 MMT. Rice production is expected to reach 1.19 MMT on a rough basis, equivalent to 773,000 tons milled, with exports forecast at 330,000 tons.
Argentina's grain outlook remains favorable for wheat and corn exports, but excessive rainfall, potential El Niño impacts, crop quality concerns and tight farm margins remain significant risks.
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