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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is likely to face the resistance near $2340 level and move lower towards $2300 amid rise in global treasury yields. Further, expectation of improved retail sales numbers and industrial production data from US could lower the chance of early rate cut in US. Meanwhile, investors will keep an eye on comments from the FOMC members to get more clarity on the timing of rate cut. Also, higher call base near 2350 strike would act as key resistance for price. Additionally, bearish cross over of 10 and 20 day EMA would restrict the upside in the yellow metal.

• MCX Gold Aug price is likely to face the hurdle near 71800 and move back towards 71,000 level (50-Day EMA). Only a move below 71,000 it would turn weaker

• MCX Silver July is expected to face the hurdle near 89750 and move lower towards 88,000. A break below 88,000 level prices may slip further towards 87,200 level

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to trade with the negative bias amid weak economic data from China. Persistent weakness in the housing sector along with rising inventories in both LME and SHFE warehouses would weigh on the metal prices to trade lower. A property market slump, high local Government debt and deflation remained the top concerns in China, would weigh on the metal prices. Additionally, higher borrowing cost for longer duration will hurt economic growth and dent demand for industrial metals

• MCX Copper is expected to slip further towards 842 level as long as it stays below 862 level (10-Day EMA). A break below 842 prices may skid further towards 836 level

• Aluminum is expected move further south towards 230 level as long as it stays below 236 level. A break below 230 level prices may dip further towards 227 level.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude oil is expected to rise towards $81.0 level amid risk-on sentiments and tight global supplies. Further, heightened tension in the Middle East would hurt the global supplies and support the oil to hold its gains. Price may also find support after Russia pledged to meet its output obligations under the OPEC+ pact. Also, fresh addition of net longs last week would strengthen its gains towards the $81 mark. Meanwhile, higher OI base near the 80 and 81 strike calls could restrict the upside in the oil prices.

• MCX Crude oil July is likely to move higher towards 6720 level as long as it stays above 6500 level. Only, a move above 6720 it would turn bullish.

• MCX Natural gas June is expected to slip further towards 230 as long as it stays below 242 level amid improved natural gas supplies and expectations for cooler US temperature towards the end of this week.

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