IGI Logo

Gold

Gold prices settled 0.25% higher at 148,858, supported by easing concerns over inflation and expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve may not need to tighten monetary policy as aggressively as previously feared. Optimism surrounding negotiations involving Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz reduced geopolitical risk premiums, while expectations for a September U.S. rate hike eased to 55% from 67% two days earlier. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly reiterated support for maintaining current interest rates as policymakers assess incoming inflation data. Investors are now closely watching the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls report after the latest ADP employment data indicated slower private-sector job growth. Fundamental developments remained mixed across key physical markets. China's first-half 2026 gold production declined 9.01% year-on-year to 229.99 tonnes, reflecting weaker domestic mine output, while total gold consumption edged up 1.23% to 511.41 tonnes. Investment demand remained exceptionally strong, with gold bar and coin consumption surging 28.42%, offsetting a sharp decline in jewellery demand. Physical premiums in China strengthened to $5-$8 per ounce, indicating improving buying interest, while discounts in India narrowed as buyers awaited clearer price direction. London vault holdings increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported that global second-quarter gold demand remained stable at 1,268.9 tonnes as robust central bank purchases of 289 tonnes compensated for ETF outflows. India's June-quarter gold demand fell 6% year-on-year, while higher import tariffs continued to encourage unofficial gold inflows. Technically, gold remains supported after fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 1.48%, indicating improving market participation. Immediate support is placed at 148,010, followed by 147,165, while resistance is seen at 149,890. A sustained move above this level could extend the rally toward the 150,925 mark, keeping the overall near-term bias constructive.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 147165-150925.

* Gold climbed as hopes surrounding the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz eased mounting fears around inflation.

* China’s gold imports surged 89.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2026.

* In H1 2026, China’s raw gold production was 152.908 mt, down 26.175 mt YoY, a decline of 14.62%

Silver

Silver prices settled 0.77% lower at 225,836 as investors continued to evaluate the outlook for U.S. monetary policy and future interest rate moves. The downside remained limited after an agreement between Iran and Oman to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns over energy supply disruptions, pushing crude oil prices lower and reducing inflation expectations. Market participants also scaled back expectations for Federal Reserve tightening, now pricing in only one rate hike by the end of the year compared with two expected a week earlier. Adding to the cautious outlook, the ADP employment report showed the U.S. economy added just 44,000 private-sector jobs in July, well below expectations, increasing focus on the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report. However, Fed officials Lisa Cook and Jeff Schmid maintained a hawkish tone, emphasizing that inflation remains above target and additional policy tightening may still be required if price pressures persist. Fundamental developments reflected mixed demand conditions across the silver market. London vault silver holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes, valued at approximately $53.1 billion. In India, silver imports dropped sharply following tighter government restrictions and higher import duties. Imports declined 87% in value terms and 94% in volume to just 33 metric tonnes in May, the lowest level since February 2023. The government’s decision to expand import restrictions and raise duties to 15% is aimed at reducing precious metal imports and easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves after record silver imports during the previous financial year. Technically, silver remains under pressure as long liquidation continued, with open interest declining 2.6%, indicating profit booking by market participants. Immediate support is placed at 223,975, followed by 222,110, while resistance is seen at 228,050. A sustained move above this level could trigger further buying momentum and extend gains toward the 230,260 mark.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 222110-230260.

* Silver dropped as investors continued to assess the outlook for monetary policy and the path of interest rates.

* Proposed Hormuz deal would give Iran control of inbound traffic

* US non-farm payrolls report due on Friday

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rebounded sharply, settling 3.77% higher at 7,377 on value buying as markets reassessed geopolitical developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced a temporary shipping agreement with Oman, although officials clarified that it does not represent a full reopening of the strategic waterway. At the same time, optimism over a possible U.S.-Iran agreement supported market sentiment, but renewed security concerns remained after the UK Navy reported explosions near a tanker and Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed attacks on a Saudi oil tanker while threatening additional vessels in the Red Sea. Goldman Sachs maintained its expectation for Brent crude to trade in an $80-$90 per barrel range until either a formal U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement is reached or regional tensions escalate further. Fundamental data presented a mixed supply picture. U.S. crude production declined around 2% in May to 13.71 million barrels per day from April's record level, while exports climbed to a new all-time high of 5.73 million barrels per day, reflecting strong overseas demand amid Middle East supply disruptions. Weekly EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 2.479 million barrels against expectations for a draw, while stocks at the Cushing delivery hub also rose. However, gasoline inventories declined by 1.643 million barrels and distillate stocks fell by 3.473 million barrels, indicating healthy fuel demand. Meanwhile, OPEC+ approved a production quota increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day from September, completing the rollback of an earlier voluntary output cut, although actual supply growth may remain limited due to ongoing export disruptions. Technically, crude oil witnessed short covering as open interest declined 16.52% alongside the price recovery. Immediate support is placed at 7,173, followed by 6,969, while resistance is seen at 7,518. A sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward the 7,659 zone, keeping the near-term outlook positive.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6969-7659.

* Crude oil gains on low level recovery as investors assessed the implications of a proposed shipping agreement through the Strait of Hormuz.

* US officials continued to express confidence that a deal with Iran was nearing, though investors remained cautious.

* US crude inventories rose from their lowest level since 2018

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled 1.17% lower at 253.7 as the market reacted to a larger-than-expected storage build, which outweighed support from declining production and forecasts for hotter weather across the United States through late August. Expectations of sustained high temperatures are likely to keep cooling demand elevated, but ample inventories continued to limit upside momentum. Average natural gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 states eased to 110.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in early August from a record monthly average of 110.7 bcfd in July. Meanwhile, LSEG projected total U.S. gas demand, including exports, to increase from 112.2 bcfd this week to 114.3 bcfd next week, reflecting stronger seasonal consumption. Fundamental data remained mixed. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a storage injection of 33 billion cubic feet for the week ended July 31, exceeding market expectations of 31 bcf and well above both last year's 13 bcf build and the five-year average increase of 23 bcf. Total inventories climbed to 3.117 trillion cubic feet, standing 6.7% above the five-year average despite remaining marginally below year-ago levels. In Europe, gas inventories were just under 58% full, marking the lowest seasonal storage level since records began in 2011, highlighting relatively tighter supply conditions. The EIA also projected U.S. natural gas production and consumption to reach record highs in 2026, with dry gas output forecast at 111.2 bcfd and LNG exports expected to rise to 17.4 bcfd, reflecting continued structural demand growth. Technically, natural gas remains under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 4.52%, indicating new short positions entering the market. Immediate support is placed at 250.0, followed by 246.3, while resistance is seen at 257.8. A sustained move above this level could trigger additional buying momentum and open the path toward the 261.9 level.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 246.3-261.9.

* Natural gas dropped as a bearish amount of gas in storage offset a bullish drop in output and forecasts for hotter weather.

* EU gas stocks are just under 58% full – the lowest for the time of year in records going back to 2011 and 12 percentage points behind last year’s level.

* LSEG sees Lower 48 gas demand rising to 114.3 bcfd next week

Copper

Copper prices settled marginally higher by 0.16% at 1,376, supported by tightening supply expectations following reports that the Democratic Republic of Congo has banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates. The country has also introduced a new tax regime requiring miners to declare valuable byproducts immediately, with a revised valuation framework taking effect in three months. Supply concerns were further reinforced after Chile’s Codelco suspended an expansion project at its El Teniente mine due to increased seismic risks. Meanwhile, COMEX copper futures continued to trade at a significant premium over the London Metal Exchange as markets priced in the possibility of U.S. import tariffs, while the LME cash premium widened sharply, highlighting tight nearby supplies. Fundamental developments remained mixed across global markets. LME copper inventories declined to 226,650 tonnes, the lowest level since mid-February, reflecting continued warehouse withdrawals. Strong U.S. imports since early 2025 have concentrated a significant portion of visible global inventories within the country. Production remained healthy, with Glencore reporting a 15% year-on-year increase in first-half copper output, while First Quantum Minerals also recorded higher production in Zambia. In China, refined copper imports reached a nine-month high in June, supported by strong demand and reduced domestic supply. However, private manufacturing data showed slower factory activity in July, while weaker copper product output indicated softer downstream demand despite record refined copper production. The International Copper Study Group also reported an 18,000-tonne refined copper surplus in May, reflecting a more balanced global market compared with earlier supply deficits. Technically, copper witnessed short covering as open interest declined 4.61%, indicating the exit of bearish positions. Immediate support is placed at 1,364.7, followed by 1,353.3, while resistance is seen at 1,392. A sustained move above this level could strengthen bullish momentum and extend gains toward the 1,407.9 level in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1353.3-1407.9.

* Copper rallied after reports shows the Democratic Republic of Congo has banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates.

* China’s refined copper output grew by 2.5% year-on-year to nearly 1.334 million tonnes, reaching a new record high.

* The premium for LME cash copper over the three-month contract widened to $130 a ton, the most since October, signalling tightening conditions.

Zinc

Zinc prices settled 0.69% higher at 394.85, supported by improving market sentiment following easing geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran and continued concerns over tight near-term supply. Risk appetite strengthened after renewed diplomatic efforts reduced fears of further conflict in the Middle East. Supply-side support also came from declining available inventories on the London Metal Exchange, where stocks fell to 73,825 tonnes, the lowest level since December. The LME cash contract continued to trade at a significant premium over the three-month contract, reflecting persistent backwardation and indicating tight immediate availability. In China, heavy rainfall and flooding raised concerns over disruptions to mining operations, smelter activity, and transportation, further supporting prices. Fundamental developments highlighted a mixed supply outlook. A mine in southwest China is expected to reduce zinc concentrate production by around 1,000 tonnes in August, while a major smelter in central China plans routine maintenance that could reduce refined output by 1,000–1,500 tonnes. Glencore reported a 21% year-on-year decline in first-half own-sourced zinc production, although it maintained its full-year production guidance. Boliden and MMG also reported lower zinc output, while Japan’s Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to increase refined zinc production by 3.2% during the first half of the 2026/27 financial year. Meanwhile, China’s refined zinc production rose 10% year-on-year in May, reflecting strong smelter operations. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global refined zinc surplus narrowed to 8,700 tonnes in May from 43,400 tonnes in April, suggesting improving market balance. Technically, zinc witnessed short covering as open interest declined 1.34%, indicating the unwinding of bearish positions. Immediate support is placed at 391.4, followed by 388.0, while resistance is seen at 397.6. A sustained move above this level could strengthen bullish momentum and open the way for a test of the 400.4 level.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 388-400.4.

* Zinc gained as easing US Iran tensions lifted market risk appetite and LME available zinc stocks were at the lowest since December.

* Cash LME zinc contract is trading roughly $60 a ton higher than the three-month forward, easing from more than a $73 premium a week ago.

* Zinc smelter in Central China plans to carry out routine maintenance in August, affecting output by 1,000-1,500 mt.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled 0.87% higher at 349.2, supported by tightening global supply conditions and historically low overseas inventories. Market sentiment remained positive as inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses declined to 267,800 tonnes, the lowest level recorded this century, highlighting continued tight physical availability. Additional support came from concerns that heavy rainfall and flooding in China’s Sichuan province could disrupt aluminium smelters, hydropower generation, and transportation networks. Supply risks also increased after Alcoa lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes following operational disruptions at its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia. However, gains remained capped by improving production prospects in the Middle East and elevated Chinese exports. Fundamental data reflected a mixed global supply outlook. Aluminium production outside China declined 6.7% year-on-year in July, primarily due to lower operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters. Global primary aluminium production also fell 1.5% year-on-year in June to 5.98 million tonnes, with Gulf region output experiencing a sharp decline. Meanwhile, aluminium inventories at Japan’s major ports dropped 7.8% month-on-month, indicating healthy regional demand. In China, primary aluminium production increased 4.7% year-on-year to 3.98 million tonnes in June, while unwrought aluminium and product exports surged to a record 711,000 tonnes during the month. First-half exports rose 16.3% from a year earlier despite weaker domestic manufacturing activity, while imports declined 17.4% due to an unfavorable import arbitrage. Market participants also continue to monitor expectations that higher exports from China and Indonesia could partially offset reduced Gulf production. Technically, aluminium remains under fresh buying interest as open interest increased 7.83%, indicating new long positions entering the market. Immediate support is placed at 346.2, followed by 343.1, while resistance is seen at 350.9. A sustained move above this level could strengthen bullish momentum and open the way for a test of the 352.5 level.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 343.1-352.5.

* Aluminum gains amid all-time low overseas inventories, and expectations of supply disruptions from China's crackdown on illegal capacity.

* Support also seen amid concerns that heavy rainfall and flooding in China's Sichuan province could disrupt smelter operations.

* Output outside China fell 6.7% year-on-year in July, mainly due to reduced operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices declined sharply by 5% to settle at 21,546 as profit booking emerged after the recent rally. Market sentiment weakened following the revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana, and North Karnataka, which eased concerns over dry weather and improved crop prospects. Adequate rainfall has replenished key reservoirs in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, ensuring sufficient water availability during the crop's vegetative stage and reducing fears of production losses. Re-sowing has also been completed in North Karnataka after improved rainfall, further supporting expectations of better crop development. Earlier gains had been driven by lower carry-forward stocks, deficient rainfall, and concerns that El Niño could negatively impact the new crop. Fundamental factors continue to present a mixed outlook. Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by around 16.05% year-on-year, remaining well above the five-year average, encouraged by attractive market prices. Recent rainfall across major producing regions is expected to accelerate sowing activity, although market participants remain cautious about the future distribution of monsoon rains and the potential impact of El Niño. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than last season's level of over 20 lakh bags, keeping overall supplies relatively tight. Export demand remained broadly stable during the initial months of the financial year despite a marginal decline in May shipments. Strong export growth to markets such as China, Oman, Yemen, and Italy helped offset weakness in other destinations. Premium demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from European buyers continues to support prices for quality produce, although stricter residue regulations have pressured commercial-grade supplies. Technically, turmeric remains under long liquidation as open interest declined 1.17%, indicating liquidation of existing long positions. Immediate support is placed at 20,974, followed by 20,402, while resistance is seen at 22,464. A sustained recovery above this level could improve market sentiment and open the path toward the 23,382 level.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 20402-23382.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking as revival of monsoon activity in mid-July eased dry-weather fears.

* Re-sowing completed in North Karnataka following rainfall, crop conditions improve.

* NCDEX raised additional/special margins by 7.50% on turmeric futures contracts to curb excessive volatility.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20734.25 Rupees dropped by -1.81 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled 0.5% lower at 20,905 as increased farmer selling and improved arrivals weighed on market sentiment. Farmers continued to liquidate stocks to generate cash for Kharif sowing activities, while favorable weather across North-West India enabled faster harvesting and drying, accelerating market arrivals. Rising stocks in NCDEX-accredited warehouses further reduced the urgency for spot purchases by traders. Domestic spice processors and large industrial buyers maintained a cautious approach, preferring hand-to-mouth procurement instead of aggressive bulk buying as they awaited further price correction. Reports of improving production prospects in Turkey and Syria also pressured Indian export premiums by raising expectations of higher global supplies. Despite the decline, supportive factors continue to limit downside. Supplies of premium-quality bold jeera remain tight as export-grade, residue-compliant stocks are becoming increasingly scarce. Daily arrivals at key trading centers such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started to decline, reflecting tighter availability of high-quality produce. Crop quality has also been affected by blight disease in parts of Gujarat, reducing the quantity of export-grade material. Production estimates for the current season remain lower than last year due to reduced sowing area, with total output projected at around 90–92 lakh bags compared with nearly 1.10 crore bags last season. Export performance remained weak overall, with May shipments declining 26% year-on-year and April-May exports down 22%. However, stronger demand from emerging destinations including Singapore, Mexico, Yemen, and Poland partially offset weaker exports to traditional markets. Continued geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and cautious Chinese buying also limited export demand. Technically, jeera remains under long liquidation as open interest declined 8.61%, indicating the unwinding of existing long positions. Immediate support is placed at 20,830, followed by 20,740, while resistance is seen at 21,050. A sustained move above this level could improve buying momentum and lead prices toward the 21,180 level.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20740-21180.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected, accelerating the delivery timeline.

* Large industrial spice grinders are staying away from bulk purchases, waiting for the market to bottom out.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20826.15 Rupees dropped by -0.42 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views