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Gold 

Gold settled 0.52% lower at Rs. 139,452, as energy-driven inflation concerns and expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary tightening weighed on prices ahead of the US midterm elections. Comments from three Fed officials supporting additional rate hikes, coupled with stronger US inflation in September due to higher gasoline and goods prices, reinforced expectations of a December rate increase, with CME FedWatch indicating a 75% probability. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council (WGC) reduced its forecast for gold investment demand growth in 2026 to 200 tonnes from 400 tonnes, citing weaker bar and coin purchases, although it raised its central bank buying outlook. Physically backed gold ETFs recorded strong inflows of 211 tonnes in the third quarter, while bar and coin demand declined 19% year-on-year to 268 tonnes and jewellery consumption fell 17% to 313 tonnes. Central bank purchases increased 42% to 321 tonnes, the highest quarterly level since Q4 2024, taking year-to-date purchases to 675 tonnes, with full-year demand expected to at least match 2025's 848 tonnes. In India, gold demand is projected to decline to around 650 tonnes in 2026, the lowest since 2020, as elevated prices, weaker rural demand and a poor monsoon weigh on jewellery purchases. September-quarter demand declined 29% year-on-year to 162.5 tonnes, with jewellery demand falling 20% and investment demand dropping 40%. Physical demand across major Asian markets remained subdued, while Indian premiums eased to $7 per ounce from $9 previously. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, as open interest increased 0.87% to 16,282 contracts while prices declined by Rs. 734, indicating the addition of short positions. Gold is currently finding support at Rs. 138,070, below which prices could decline towards Rs. 136,690. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs. 140,620, and a sustained move above this level could extend the recovery towards Rs. 141,800.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 136690-141800.

• Gold prices fell as energy-driven inflation worries kept investors on edge ahead of the US midterms elections.

• Pressure seen on prices as persistent inflation concerns reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates later this year.

• World Gold Council cut its forecast for growth in gold investment this year to 200 metric tons from 400 tons previously

• India's gold demand is expected to fall to a six-year low in 2026, as elevated prices weigh on jewellery sales and investment demand moderates – WGC

Silver 

Silver settled 2.22% lower at Rs. 179,698, as a rebound in oil prices following reports of a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island heightened concerns over renewed inflationary pressures and weighed on precious metals. Investors remained cautious ahead of the US midterm elections, while renewed selling in technology and artificial intelligence stocks triggered broader market liquidations. Meanwhile, markets closely monitored US-Iran negotiations, with Iranian officials indicating that further progress depended on Washington, while President Donald Trump suggested that Iran was eager to reach a settlement. Fundamentally, the global silver market is heading towards its sixth consecutive annual deficit, with the cumulative drawdown from inventories reaching 762 million ounces since 2021, increasing the risk of renewed liquidity constraints. The Silver Institute and Metals Focus estimate the 2026 market deficit at 46.3 million ounces, wider than the 40.3 million ounces recorded in 2025, despite an expected 2% decline in total demand. Industrial silver fabrication is forecast to fall 3% to a four-year low amid weaker industrial and jewellery consumption, partly offset by an anticipated 18% increase in coin and bar demand. Global silver supply is also projected to decline 2% in 2026. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults stood at 28,985 tonnes at the end of September 2026, up 1.95% month-on-month, indicating some improvement in available inventories. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, as open interest declined 0.61% to 16,830 contracts while prices fell by Rs. 4,081, indicating the liquidation of existing long positions. Silver is currently finding support at Rs. 175,670, and a sustained break below this level could trigger further weakness towards Rs. 171,640. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs. 183,310, above which prices could recover towards Rs. 186,910.

Trading Ideas:

• Silver trading range for the day is 171640-186910.

• Silver prices fell as oil prices rebounded following reports of a US strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island, heightening concerns over renewed inflationary pressures.

• Renewed selling pressure in technology and artificial intelligence stocks further weighed on silver.

• Traders currently see a 75% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

• Investors also kept a close watch on developments in US-Iran negotiations for signs of diplomatic progress.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.35% higher at Rs. 9,104, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions after the United States struck Iran's Qeshm Island, while an Iranian official indicated that a deal to end the conflict remained distant, raising concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies. Supply-side concerns were further reinforced by US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories falling to 282.2 million barrels, the lowest level since October 1982, following recent drawdowns under a 172 million-barrel release programme. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude price forecast to $105 per barrel for December from $90 previously and increased its 2027 average forecast to $88, citing prolonged supply risks. Meanwhile, Libya's National Oil Corporation reported another disruption to crude flows after an armed group shut a valve on the Hamada pipeline supplying the Zawiya refinery. US crude inventories declined by 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels in the week ended October 23, against market expectations of a 15,000-barrel increase, while Cushing stocks fell by 624,000 barrels. Distillate inventories also declined by 1.5 million barrels, whereas gasoline stocks increased by 3.9 million barrels, exceeding expectations. On the demand front, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day earlier, marking its sixth consecutive downward revision, while raising its 2027 outlook on expectations of inventory rebuilding and deferred demand recovery. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency reported that Russian crude production increased by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million barrels per day, although it remained below year-ago levels amid ongoing refining disruptions. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined sharply by 12.73% to 9,930 contracts while prices gained Rs. 32, indicating the covering of existing short positions. Crude oil is currently finding support at Rs. 8,860, below which prices could test Rs. 8,615. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs. 9,360, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs. 9,615.

Trading Ideas:

• Crude Oil trading range for the day is 8615-9615.

• Crude oil prices rose as an Iranian official said a deal to the end the war was far off

• Oil stocks in US strategic petroleum reserve fall to lowest level since 1982

• Goldman Sachs raises Brent crude forecast to $105 for December, sees oil at $88 in 2027 amid Iran war risks

• Libya's National Oil Corporation said an armed group shut a valve on the main Hamada crude oil pipeline halting flows.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 0.70% higher at Rs. 274.60, supported by tightening production and slightly cooler weather forecasts, which improved expectations for heating and power demand as the winter season begins. Lower weekend production, particularly from the Appalachia shale region, provided additional support, suggesting producers may be adjusting output amid persistently weak prices. However, upside remained limited by expectations of warmer-than-average temperatures across most of the United States through November 16, while reduced gas flows to LNG export terminals increased domestic supply availability. According to the US Energy Information Administration, natural gas inventories increased by 80 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 23, exceeding market expectations of 75 billion cubic feet. Total inventories reached 3.724 trillion cubic feet, remaining 3.8% below year-earlier levels but 1% above the five-year average. Meanwhile, the EIA projected US dry gas production to rise to a record 112.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 116.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, while domestic consumption is expected to increase to 92.4 billion cubic feet per day and 93.8 billion cubic feet per day, respectively. LNG exports are also forecast to reach 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027. However, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per MMBtu from $3.50, citing stronger Permian production growth and expectations that US supply will exceed demand growth by more than 2 billion cubic feet per day. The bank expects the domestic market to remain comfortably supplied in the medium term, indicating continued pressure on prices. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 6.11% to 54,366 contracts while prices gained Rs. 1.90, indicating the covering of existing short positions. Natural gas is currently finding support at Rs. 271.00, below which prices could test Rs. 267.50. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs. 278.50, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs. 282.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Natural Gas trading range for the day is 267.50-282.50.

• Natural gas prices rose driven by tightening production and a slightly colder weather outlook.

• Lower production over the weekend, particularly in the Appalachia shale region, offered some support.

• Slightly cooler weather forecasts also provided a modest boost to expectations for heating and power demand as the winter season begins.

• However, the upside remains constrained by expectations of warmer-than-average conditions across most of the country through November 16.

Copper 

Copper settled 1.91% lower at Rs. 1,365.40, as weakening risk appetite amid renewed concerns over artificial intelligence spending and uncertainty surrounding Middle East tensions weighed on industrial metals. Sentiment was further affected by China's decision to raise the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 2 percentage points to 6% from 4%, effective November 15, aimed at tightening dollar liquidity and slowing the yuan's recent appreciation. However, underlying physical market indicators remained supportive, with the Yangshan copper premium holding near $200 per tonne, its highest level in more than a decade, while inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored warehouses declined by more than 75% over the past six months. Supply concerns intensified after Chile's copper commission Cochilco sharply reduced its 2026 production forecast by 8.4% to 4.94 million tonnes from its earlier estimate of 5.27 million tonnes, while projecting a modest 3% recovery in 2027. Cochilco also raised its average copper price forecasts to $6.18 per pound for 2026 and $5.95 per pound for 2027, citing constrained mine supply and limited capacity to absorb production disruptions. Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of 132,000 tonnes in August, compared with a deficit of 45,000 tonnes in July, taking the cumulative surplus during the first eight months to 218,000 tonnes. The ICSG expects the global refined copper surplus to widen from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027, supported by higher refinery output, despite continued demand from electrification, renewable energy, digitalisation and data centres. China's copper imports increased 20.7% month-on-month to 461,000 tonnes in September, reflecting stronger import demand. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, as open interest declined 2.14% to 6,389 contracts while prices fell by Rs. 26.55, indicating liquidation of existing long positions. Copper is currently finding support at Rs. 1,346.50, below which prices could test Rs. 1,327.00. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs. 1,384.50, and a sustained move above this level could extend recovery towards Rs. 1,403.00.

Trading Ideas:

• Copper trading range for the day is 1327.00-1403.00.

• Copper prices fell as risk appetite weakened amid renewed concerns over AI spending, uncertainty ahead of Middle East tensions.

• PBOC will raise the foreign exchange RRR for financial institutions by 2 percentage points, to 6% from 4%, effective November 15

• The Yangshan copper premium, a gauge of demand for imported metal, remained near $200 a ton — its highest in more than a decade.

Zinc 

Zinc settled 1.63% lower at Rs. 411.25, as expectations of a recovery in Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability raised prospects of easing supply tightness, weighing on prices. However, concerns over production disruptions and declining mine output continued to provide underlying support. Operational incidents at major producers, including Korea Zinc, Glencore's Kazzinc and YoungPoong's Seopo smelter, raised concerns over potential supply losses, although the actual impact on refined zinc production remains uncertain. China's zinc ore imports have declined since April, tightening raw material availability and pushing treatment charges to record lows, forcing some smelters to reduce refined metal production. The LME cash-to-three-month zinc premium widened sharply to $106 per tonne from $45 previously, highlighting near-term supply tightness. Meanwhile, China's refined zinc production declined 1.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year in September, while Shanghai Futures Exchange monitored inventories fell 1.6% from the previous week. China's manufacturing PMI remained firmly in expansion territory at 52.0 in October, marking the eleventh consecutive month above the 50-point threshold. However, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group expects the global refined zinc market to shift from a deficit of 88,000 tonnes in 2026 to a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027, supported by a projected 2% increase in refined production to 14.21 million tonnes and a 3% rise in mine output to 12.78 million tonnes. Global zinc demand is forecast to increase 1.2% to 14.19 million tonnes in 2027, although slower Chinese real estate investment could restrict consumption growth. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, as open interest declined sharply by 16.48% to 1,673 contracts while prices fell by Rs. 6.80, indicating liquidation of existing long positions. Zinc is currently finding support at Rs. 407.50, below which prices could test Rs. 403.50. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs. 415.50, and a sustained move above this level could extend recovery towards Rs. 419.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Zinc trading range for the day is 403.50-419.50.

• Zinc dropped as prospect of a recovery in Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability could ease supply tightness.

• Glencore's Kazzinc cut zinc output after a fire, impacting 250,000–300,000 tons of zinc capacity.

• China's zinc ore imports have declined since April, squeezing raw material supply and sending treatment charges sharply lower.

Aluminium 

Aluminium settled 1.43% lower at Rs. 326.55, as expectations of improving global supply and a potential market surplus in 2027 weighed on prices. Recovering production in the Middle East, resilient Chinese output and expanding Indonesian smelting capacity are expected to ease supply tightness, with earlier estimates of 3–3.5 million tonnes of lost Middle Eastern production revised lower to less than 2 million tonnes. Emirates Global Aluminium has restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring around 50% of capacity, with full production expected by the first quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, China's primary aluminium production reached a record quarterly high of 11.84 million tonnes in July–September, up 2.2% year-on-year, while September output increased 3.1% to 3.91 million tonnes. Production during the first nine months rose 3.8% to 35.03 million tonnes, supported by strong smelting margins and high operating rates despite the government's 45-million-tonne annual capacity ceiling. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium production declined to 6.014 million tonnes in September from 6.10 million tonnes a year earlier, indicating continued weakness in overall production despite improving daily output. However, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 10.3% weekly decline in monitored aluminium inventories, providing some underlying support. Jefferies noted that aluminium prices have fallen around 17% since early June, partly due to the resumption of Middle Eastern smelter operations, although high alumina import costs could delay further capacity restarts and planned expansions. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, as open interest declined 0.53% to 4,283 contracts while prices fell by Rs. 4.75, indicating liquidation of existing long positions. Aluminium is currently finding support at Rs. 323.00, below which prices could test Rs. 320.00. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs. 331.00, and a sustained move above this level could extend recovery towards Rs. 335.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 320.00-335.50.

• Aluminium dropped amid concerns over improving global supply prospects and expectations of a potential market surplus in 2027.

• Recovering Middle East production, resilient Chinese output and rapidly expanding Indonesian capacity are expected to narrow the current year's supply deficit.

• Jefferies: Middle East aluminum capacity restarts likely to slow

Turmeric 

Turmeric settled 1.45% lower at Rs. 26,280, as profit booking emerged after a recent rally driven by tight pipeline supplies and expectations of lower acreage for the upcoming season. Overseas enquiries from Bangladesh, the Middle East and Southeast Asia slowed temporarily as buyers awaited price stability, while physical trading activity across Nizamabad, Sangli and Erode remained subdued at higher price levels. However, downside remained limited by lower arrivals and weather-related concerns in major producing regions. Total arrivals were estimated at around 6,000 bags, down 2,000 bags from the previous trading session, reinforcing concerns over near-term availability. Persistently dry weather in parts of Maharashtra could affect crop growth and yields if adequate rainfall does not materialise, while forecast cyclonic rainfall across South India has raised concerns over potential crop damage from excessive or untimely precipitation. However, improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with better reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, eased some crop failure concerns. Industry estimates indicate carry-forward stocks of around 15 lakh bags compared with over 20 lakh bags last season, suggesting a tighter overall availability position. Meanwhile, stricter European Union maximum residue limit requirements are increasing demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric, while non-compliant commercial-grade lots face export challenges. India's turmeric exports declined 14% year-on-year to 14,736 tonnes in August 2026, compared with 17,136 tonnes last year. However, cumulative exports during April-August increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes. Shipments to the UAE, Netherlands and Brazil recorded strong growth, while exports to Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia declined sharply. Farmer selling during the peak harvest window also added some pressure. In Nizamabad, spot prices declined 0.75% to Rs. 24,981.50. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, as open interest declined 0.81% to 17,825 contracts while prices fell by Rs. 388, indicating liquidation of existing long positions. Turmeric is currently finding support at Rs. 25,970, below which prices could test Rs. 25,660. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs. 26,770, and a sustained move above this level could extend recovery towards Rs. 27,250.

Trading Ideas:

• Turmeric trading range for the day is 25660-27250.

• Turmeric dropped amid active profit booking after prices rallied due to prevailing tight pipeline supplies and lower overall acreage estimates.

• Overseas inquiries from key destinations in Bangladesh, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia slowed down temporarily as buyers waited for price stability.

• Physical trade sentiment across Nizamabad, Sangli, and Erode turned slightly cautious, with traders noting that physical off-take thinned out at current price quotes.

• In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 24981.5 Rupees dropped by 0.75 percent.

Jeera 

Jeera settled 1% higher at Rs. 26,325, supported by rising export demand concerns and tightening domestic and global supplies. Limited availability of Syrian cumin and weather-related uncertainties linked to the El Niño phenomenon strengthened expectations of lower production and supported Indian export demand. Gujarat declared Jamnagar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar and Kutch as scarcity-hit districts, raising concerns over water availability and agricultural output. Uncertainty surrounding rainfall and soil moisture in key cumin-growing regions of Rajasthan and Gujarat could influence sowing decisions for the upcoming season. However, upside remained limited by profit booking, farmer selling to generate cash flow ahead of the new season and expectations of stable-to-higher sowing acreage in Saurashtra and western Rajasthan. Spot activity at Unjha remained subdued, as processors and millers restricted purchases to immediate requirements amid elevated prices. Industry estimates indicate that India's cumin production could decline to 90–92 lakh bags this season from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Internationally, China's cumin production is estimated at 70,000–80,000 tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria and Turkey are expected to produce 9,000–10,000 tonnes and 10,000–11,000 tonnes, respectively. Meanwhile, India's cumin exports declined 19.7% year-on-year to 11,667 tonnes in August 2026, compared with 14,532 tonnes last year. Cumulative exports during April-August fell to 65,128 tonnes from 87,558 tonnes, while total exports during September 2025-August 2026 declined 17.4% to 174,479 tonnes. Shipments to the USA, Singapore and Mexico improved in August, whereas exports to the UAE and Bangladesh declined sharply. In Unjha, spot prices eased 0.12% to Rs. 26,268.05. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 4.24% to 6,915 contracts while prices gained Rs. 260, indicating covering of existing short positions. Jeera is currently finding support at Rs. 26,080, below which prices could test Rs. 25,830. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs. 26,550, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards Rs. 26,770.

Trading Ideas:

• Jeera trading range for the day is 25830-26770.

• Jeera gained amid rising export demand and tightening global as well as domestic supplies.

• Concerns over weather conditions and limited water supply due to the El Niño phenomenon are adding to the upward price pressure in jeera.

• With Syrian supplies remaining minimum, demand for Indian cumin seed is higher.

• In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26268.05 Rupees dropped by 0.12 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views