All-time low awaits rupee before US election; RBI may help out
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The Indian rupee is poised to open at a lifetime low on Tuesday as market participants eye the U.S. presidential election, which polls suggest is virtually a coin toss.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicates that the rupee will open at 84.14 to the U.S. dollar, inching past the current all-time low of 84.1225 hit on Monday.
The local currency has been crawling to new lows over the last three weeks in the wake of foreign equity outflows and nervousness regarding the outcome of the U.S. election.
The Reserve Bank of India has intervened on most days the last three weeks to keep the rupee's losses and volatility in check. The central bank is well-equipped to handle to post US election volatility, sources informed Reuters.
Thanks to the RBI's interventions, the rupee's 1-month daily realized volatility is less than 1% on an annualised basis. This has dampened the implied volatility, which heading into the U.S. elections is among the lowest in Asia.
"I am surprised that the RBI allowed 84.10 to be taken out, having defended for a long time," a currency trader at a bank said.
"For me, this indicates the extent of (dollar) buying that is happening."
A win for Republican candidate Donald Trump is seen a negative for the rupee and other Asian currencies. A Trump win is expected to push U.S. Treasury yields higher, lift the dollar and weaken the Chinese yuan.
Currently, polls and the betting market indicate that Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are running neck and neck.
Trump was favoured in the betting market until a high profile poll on Saturday indicated that he was trailing in a state that we won convincingly in 2016 and 2020.
The U.S. will begin voting later in the day and initial trends are likely to begin tricking in on Wednesday morning for Asia.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 84.24; onshore one-month forward premium at 9.5 paisa
** Dollar index at 103.90
** Brent crude futures up 0.1% at $75.2 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.3%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $516.5mln worth of Indian shares on Nov. 3
** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $17.1mln worth of Indian bonds on Nov. 3
