14-09-2023 11:14 AM | Source: Geojit Financial Services Ltd
Agri Commodity Technical Report 14 September 2023 - Geojit Financial Services

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• India received 4.8 mm rainfall on Wednesday, 16% below the normal of 5.7 mm for the period, the IMD said today. Central India received 23% above normal rainfall on Wednesday at 7.6 mm. In east and northeast parts of the country, rainfall was 43% below normal at 5.8 mm. In the northwest, rainfall was 24% below normal at 2.8 mm, and in south peninsula, rainfall was deficient by 48% at 2.3 mm. Of the 36 subdivisions in the country, 18 received large deficient showers, while six got deficient rains. Seven subdivisions got normal precipitation, one received excess showers and four experienced large excess rainfall, according to the bureau's data. Since Jun 1, the country has received 707.1 mm rainfall, 10% below normal for the period.

• The US Department of Agriculture has cut its estimate on global oilseed output for 2023-24 (May-Apr) to 660.89 mln tn, down 2.8 mln tn from 663.7 mln tn forecast a month earlier. Production of oilseeds in the US in 2023-24 has been scaled down by 1.8 mln tn to 122.21 mln tn, according to the department's latest report. The department has projected global soybean output at 401.33 mln tn, down 1.5 mln tn from 402.79 mln tn in the earlier forecast. Soybean output of Brazil and Argentina have been projected at a record 163.0 mln tn and 48.0 mln tn, respectively, both unchanged from last month. The department has estimated soybean production in the US at 112.84 mln tn, down 1.6 mln tn from 114.45 mln tn projected last month. Brazil is the world's largest producer of soybean followed by the US and Argentina. "The US season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal price is unchanged at $380 per short ton and the soybean oil price is raised 1.0 cent to 63.0 cents per pound," the agency said in its report. The estimate for global soyoil production for 2023-24 has been cut by 0.4 mln tn to 61.61 mln tn from 61.96 mln tn projected in August. The forecast for global soyoil exports in 2023-24, however, has been marginally raised to 11.62 mln tn from 11.61 mln tn. The department projected global soymeal output for 2023-24 at 257.30 mln tn, down 1.4 mln tn from 258.66 mln tn estimated last month. Soymeal is a derivative of soybean, manufactured by crushing the oilseed, and is mainly used in producing poultry feed.

• The area under kharif crops across the country in the 2023-24 (Jul-Jun) season was at 108.9 mln ha as of Friday, compared with 108.8 mln ha a year ago, according to data from the Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare. The acreage of paddy, the key grain in the kharif season, was up 3% on year at 40.3 mln ha. Paddy sowing has picked up pace in the last few weeks, aided by rainfall across the country, especially in the east and northeastern parts. Central and south peninsula have also received adequate rainfall since the beginning of September after a poor monsoon in August. The weather department has projected that rainfall in September will be normal at 91-109% of the long-period average, with normal to abovenormal precipitation over east and northeast India and some areas of east-central and south peninsular regions. The area under coarse cereals was at 18.2 mln ha, slightly higher than 18.1 mln ha a year ago, ministry data showed. The area under oilseeds was down 1% at 19.1 mln ha, while pulses acreage fell 9% to 12.0 mln ha. Sowing of pulses has taken a hit this season because erratic rainfall in key growing regions made farmers shift to other remunerative crops such as soybean and small millets in hope of better returns. Soybean acreage in the country was 1% higher on year as of today, according to the data. Sowing of cotton fell 1% to 12.5 mln ha as of Friday, the data showed. Meanwhile, acreage under sugarcane was 8% higher at nearly 6 mln ha as of Friday, the data showed. There have been concerns that sugarcane production may suffer in India next season, and there will be shortage of sugar supply from the current season. However, the government has reiterated that the country has sufficient stocks of sugar, which will be enough to meet domestic demand. As for sunflower, sowing this kharif season was lagging by a whopping 65% as of Friday. Major sunflower growing states such as Maharashtra and Karantaka have received deficient precipitation so far this monsoon season, according to data from the India Meteorological Department. This has taken a major toll on sowing of the crop.

• The government of India, the Indian Sugar Mills Association, and the International Sugar Organisation have organised the India Sugar and Bio-Energy Conference on Sep 21-22 in New Delhi. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari, and Food Minister Piyush Goyal will attend the conference, which is themed "Sugarcane Industry – Driving the Green Economy". The conference will discuss bio-energy policies and regulation frameworks in view of sustainability and the future of mobility. "This conference will set new industry standards and is expected to draw 400 attendees," Aditya Jhunjhunwala, president of ISMA said in a press release. The two-day conference will detail global sugar supply and demand, trade flows, and growth in biofuels. Delegates from Brazil and Thailand will elaborate on changing trends and outlooks. "The world is keenly following India on its sugar production and diversification progress as well as the initiatives in the entire bio-energy and mobility space," said Jose Orive, executive director at the International Sugar Organisation. "The fact that the government is supporting this industry also makes it the right time for ISO (International Sugar Organisation) to get actively involved with the Indian sugarcane sector," Orive said in a press release. Policies on balancing India's sugar consumption, ethanol, and exports will also be highlighted. The conference will have insights from international firms like UNICA, DATAGRO, S&P Global Commodities, Czarnikow, Sugar Platform, and Wilmar Sugar. The panels would also have major industry players like Balrampur Chini, Shree Renuka Sugars, Dhampur Sugars, Harinagar Sugar, and Godavari. • Karnataka has completed sowing of kharif crops across 6.8 mln ha, which is 83% of the targeted 8.2 mln ha, according to data from the state government. Farmers have sown paddy across 743,600 ha as of Sep 1, 70% of the targeted 1.1 mln ha, the data showed. As of Sep 1, the state has completed sowing food grain across 4.5 mln ha, against the target of 5.7 mln ha, while sowing of pulses was reported across 1.7 mln ha, against the targeted 2.2 mln ha. The state has sown cereals across 2.9 mln ha so far, 82% of the targeted 3.5 mln ha. The area under oilseeds, including groundnut, soybean, castor, and sunflower, was at over 796,000 ha. The targeted acreage is 984,000 ha. At 663,000 ha, the state has achieved 83% of the targeted cotton acreage of 800,000 ha. Sugarcane acreage was reported at 698,000 ha, exceeding the target of 620,000 ha.


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