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JSW Infra’s 1QFY27 print was ahead of street’s and our estimates, with revenue/EBITDA growing 18%/16% yoy, primarily led by strong growth in the logistics segment and higher volumes in Jaigarh and Dharamtar (non-recurring alumina and project cargo flowing in 1Q). Ports revenue grew 11% yoy, driven by 5% increase in volumes (despite the decline in Fujairah terminal volumes owing to the ME crisis) and the balance from realization (owing to favorable cargo mix). With consolidation of the rail business in 4Q, the logistics segment witnessed a sharp uptick in 1Q, with revenue growing 72% yoy, while margins more than doubled yoy to 30.7%. The management reaffirmed its FY27/28 guidance, implying revenue/EBITDA CAGR of 42%/39% during FY26-28. JSW Infra maintains its timelines of commissioning upcoming projects, barring Keni port (delayed to FY30 from FY29 earlier), suggesting minimal execution risks, in line with our thesis. Factoring in the delay in Keni port commissioning, we cut FY29E revenue/EBITDA by 4%/1%, respectively. We reiterate ADD and maintain Jun-27E TP of Rs350.

Logistics ramp-up continues; port volumes impacted by ME crisis

1Q revenue grew 18% yoy to Rs14.4bn (+1% vs our/street’s estimates), with growth primarily led by the non-ports (+72% yoy) segment. The ports division grew 11% yoy, driven by 5-6% increase in both volume and realization, owing to a one-off impact from the alumina and project cargo flowing in at Jaigarh. Given that operations are being impacted at the high-margin Fujairah terminal, EBITDA margin for ports narrowed by 190bps yoy to 49.8%. The non-ports business maintained growth momentum (revenue up 72% yoy), with EBITDA margin more than doubling yoy to 30.7%. Overall EBITDA grew 16% yoy, with EBITDA margin narrowing by 85bps to 46.6%. PAT declined 10% yoy to Rs3.5bn on account of interest expense almost doubling yoy. Net cash post Rs75bn QIP stood at Rs28bn as of Jun-26 (Mar-26: net debt of Rs31bn).

Guidance maintained; we reiterate ADD

The management maintained its 42/39% revenue/EBITDA CAGR guidance for FY26-28. Project pipeline execution is largely on track, except at Keni (environmental clearances pending; commissioning delayed from FY29 to FY30). Projects in the pipeline:

1) Slurry pipeline (Odisha): 251km of the 302km lowered (83%), 256km welded (85%); on track for Mar-27 commissioning.

2) Kolkata: interim operations started at Container Terminal; capacity of 0.45MTEUs (6.3mtpa), estimated capex of Rs7.4bn. Expected completion by 3QFY28.

3) Murbe: environmental clearance and DFC rail connectivity approval received  construction targeted to start in Dec-26.

4) The Oman port concession agreement remains under negotiation, with the management expressing strategic optimism about ME ports apart from the ones operating near the Strait of Hormuz.

5) The company remains committed to scaling its rail rakes fleet-count to 250 over the next 2-3Y (currently 42 rakes), with focus on asset utilization and earnings visibility. We reiterate ADD on the stock. Key risks: Execution delays and slower-than-expected ramp-up in group companies.

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