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2026-10-13 10:11:22 am | Source: Choice Institutional Equities Ltd
Add HCL Technologies Ltd For Target Rs.1,330 by Choice Institutional Equities
Add HCL Technologies Ltd For Target Rs.1,330 by Choice Institutional Equities

Strong Bookings, AI Monetisation and Margin Gains; Recovery Still Uneven:

HCLTech delivered a healthy Q2FY27, with services revenue growing 3.0% QoQ CC (2.3% organic), supported by a broad-based execution and Advanced AI traction. Record H1 bookings, including Q2 TCV of USD 3.3 Bn (+27% YoY), improve medium-term visibility, although macro uncertainty and weak discretionary spending persist. Advanced AI revenue grew 28.4% QoQ to USD 219 Mn, with AI featuring in every large deal.

AI-led deflation in traditional services is being offset by market-share gains and incremental AI opportunities, though sustainability remains uncertain. EBIT margin expanded 131 bps QoQ to 18.2%, aided by efficiency and a higher-margin AI mix. FY27 revenue guidance was revised to 2.5–4.0%, while the organic growth midpoint remains broadly unchanged after acquisitions. We remain positive on execution, bookings and AI monetisation, but cautious on broad-based demand recovery. Key monitorables include organic growth acceleration, deal conversion and AI monetisation’s ability to offset productivity-led revenue deflation. We retain our ‘ADD’ rating and TP of INR 1,330, valuing HCLTech at 17x FY28–29 EPS.

Revenue in line while Margin Beats Estimate; FY27 Guidance Narrowed

* HCLT reported Q2FY27 revenue at USD 3,724 Mn, up 2.0% QoQ and up 2.2% YoY (vs CIE estimate of USD 3,754 Mn). The CC revenue was up 2.3% QoQ & up 2.6% YoY. In INR terms, reported revenue stood at INR 35,620 Cr, up 3.0% QoQ and 11.5% YoY (vs CIE estimate of INR 35,848 Cr).

* EBIT stood at INR 6,465 Cr, up 10.9% QoQ and 16.5% YoY (vs CIE estimate of INR 6,165 Cr). EBIT Margin came in at 18.1% for Q2FY27, up 129 bps QoQ and 77 bps YoY (vs CIE estimate of 17.2%).

* PAT for the quarter came in at INR 5,132 Cr, up 11.0% QoQ and up 21.3% YoY (vs CIE estimate of INR 4,739 Cr).

Broad-based Growth, but Demand Visibility Remains Limited:

HCLTech reported revenue growth of 3.0% QoQ, with broad-based performance across verticals. Growth was led by Retail & CPG (+14.0% YoY CC), Financial Services (+7.1%), Technology & Services (+5.9%) and Manufacturing (+3.9%), while Life Science & Healthcare and TME declined 2.1% each. Software revenue fell 11.2% YoY, partly reflecting lower multi-year licence renewals, despite 7.6% ARR growth. Demand improved towards quarter-end but remains fluid, with spending focussed on AI, data, cloud, cybersecurity and application modernisation. The management revised FY27 revenue growth guidance, to 2.5–4.0% (from 1–4.0%) and Services growth to 3.0–4.0%. We view growth as steady but uneven, with AI-led spending providing support. Guidance midpoints remain broadly unchanged, indicating limited improvement in demand visibility despite broad-based vertical growth.

Margin Expansion Driven by Operational Efficiency and AI Gains; Guidance Retained:

HCLTech reported a strong EBITM expansion of 131 bps QoQ to 18.2%, with adjusted EBITM at 19.0%, driven by Project Ascent and AI efficiency (+73 bps), advanced AI realisation (+32 bps), SG&A leverage (+50 bps) and forex gains (+23 bps). These gains offset higher restructuring cost and HPE Telco Solutions consolidation. AI services command margin 7–10% higher than traditional services, while IP/platform offerings deliver over 70% gross margin, supporting mix-led expansion as monetisation scales up. FY27 EBITM guidance was retained at 17.5–18.5%.

 

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