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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 52984 as a pullback in the dollar outweighed pressure from hawkish remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve officials on interest rate hikes. The Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates quite a bit further and then hold them there throughout next year and into 2024 to gain control of inflation and bring it back down toward the U.S. central bank's 2% goal, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said. "We've got a ways to go to get restrictive," Bullard said, as he restated his conviction that the Fed's target policy rate needs to rise to at least a range between 5.00% and 5.25% from the current level of 3.75%-4.00% to be "sufficiently restrictive" to reduce inflation. India witnessed a decline in both gold and silver imports in October, according to the latest by the Commerce ministry. The import of the yellow metal declined 17.38% to about $24 billion during April-October due to a fall in demand, according to the data of the commerce ministry. The gold import stood at $29 billion in the corresponding period last year, the ministry added. China's net gold imports via Hong Kong in October fell by 45% from the previous month, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.59% to settle at 15185 while prices are up 181 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52857 and below same could see a test of 52729 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 53149, a move above could see prices testing 53313.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 52729-53313.
* Gold prices climbed as a pullback in the dollar outweighed pressure from hawkish remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve officials on interest rate hikes.
* Fed needs to raise interest rates quite a bit further and then hold them there throughout next year and into 2024
* India Gold imports fall 17% in April-October to $24 billion


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.72% at 62836 backed by a combination of demand optimism and tight supplies. Global consumption of the white metal is expected to hit a new all-time high in 2022, driven by post-pandemic industrial and physical investment demand. At the same time, the world governments’ commitments to green technologies lifted the overall demand outlook for the commodity in the longer term. Signs of low supply also supported prices, as New York’s COMEX inventories fell 70% in the last 18 months to just over 1 million tonnes. Also, the London Bullion Market Association stockpiles fell for the 10th straight month to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes in November. Aside from the demand-supply dynamics, prospects of a less aggressive tightening from major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, have also lent optimism to silver bulls. U.S. Treasury yields pulled back despite U.S. Fed officials James Bullard and John Williams reiterating their hawkish stance on further rate hikes. Euro zone government bond yields fell broadly after inflation in Spain and in Germany's most populous state came in below expectations. Financial markets ae excited about some sort of reopening in China, apparently to quell public anger against COVID-19 curbs. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.94% to settle at 14293 while prices are up 452 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 62647 and below same could see a test of 62458 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63067, a move above could see prices testing 63298.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 62458-63298.
* Silver rose backed by a combination of demand optimism and tight supplies.
* Global consumption of the white metal is expected to hit a new all-time high in 2022
* The world governments’ commitments to green technologies lifted the overall demand outlook for silver


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.29% at 6422 prompted by hopes that China would soon relax some of its covid restrictions, which could boost oil demand. At the same time, speculations that OPEC+ may agree on another production cut in its December 4th meeting also pushed oil prices higher. Last month, the cartel announced a 2 million barrel-a-day output reduction and further cuts could also be an option this time. OPEC+ started to lower its output target by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in November, aiming to shore up oil prices. Meanwhile, EU governments failed to agree on the Russian price cap which is due to come into effect on December 5th. Both the G7 and European Union have been discussing a cap of between $65 and $70 a barrel but some countries like Poland advocate the cap should be lower. Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman had indicated last week that the OPEC+ will take further measures, if needed, amid rising recession fears. The global oil market is signaling a potential shift, as traders and analysts worry about reduced crude demand and an oversupplied market in the coming months. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -16.93% to settle at 15113 while prices are up 82 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6331 and below same could see a test of 6239 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6521, a move above could see prices testing 6619.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6239-6619.
* Crude rose prompted by hopes that China would soon relax some of its covid restrictions, which could boost oil demand.
* Further, speculations that OPEC+ may agree on another production cut in its December 4th meeting also pushed oil prices higher.
* EU governments failed to agree on the Russian price cap which is due to come into effect on December 5th.


Nat.Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 0.34% at 591.5 amid prospects of robust heating demand during the winter months. Meanwhile, investors remained concerned about possible coal supply disruptions. Workers at the largest US rail union voted against a tentative contract deal reached in September, raising the possibility of a year-end strike that could disrupt coal deliveries and force power generators to burn more gas. At the same time, the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced to go offline in June following a fire, expects to begin bringing operations back online in mid-December, while Europe is clamoring for US exports after Russia threatened to cut supplies even further. Meanwhile, EIA data showed US utilities pulled 80 billion cubic feet of gas from storage during the week ending November 18th, below market expectations of an 87 billion draw. The market had questions about whether Freeport LNG will be able to restart its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas in mid-December as planned. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 14.35% to settle at 5571 while prices are up 2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 580 and below same could see a test of 568.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 604.6, a move above could see prices testing 617.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 568.5-617.7.
* Natural gas gains amid prospects of robust heating demand during the winter months.
* Meanwhile, investors remained concerned about possible coal supply disruptions.
* Workers at the largest US rail union voted against a tentative contract deal reached in September, raising the possibility of a year-end strike


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.53% at 676.55 as support for the property sector in China brightened the demand outlook. China has stepped up support in recent weeks for its embattled property sector, a pillar accounting for a quarter of the world's second-biggest economy, including offering cheap loans to support developers' bonds. Workers at Chile's Escondida mine accepted a new offer from BHP Group Ltd and will not move forward with a strike that had been planned for Monday and Wednesday, their union said. Workers represented by the Sindicato No. 1 union at the Australian company's mine in northern Chile, the largest copper deposit in the world, had been threatening to strike over safety concerns. MMG Ltd resumed copper production at its Las Bambas mine in Peru after a protest was lifted, a source close to the company said, but added that transportation of the metal to port remained blocked by a separate conflict. Las Bambas had reduced its operations to 30% of its usual capacity earlier this month due to the protests. The world's refined copper market showed a 10,000 tonne deficit in September, compared with 13,000 tonnes in August, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.43% to settle at 5029 while prices are up 3.6 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 674.2 and below same could see a test of 671.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 680.1, a move above could see prices testing 683.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 671.8-683.6.
* Copper gains as support for the property sector in China brightened the demand outlook.
* MMG mine in Peru resumes copper output; transportation still halted
* Workers for Chile's Escondida mine accept BHP's offer and will not strike


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.17% at 263.5 as the renewed pandemic outbreak across the country weighed on the market sentiment. China imported 1,007 mt of refined zinc in October, down 77.55% on the month and 97.54% on the year. Still, concerns persist about the possibility of further supply disruptions in Europe amid uncertainty around shortages of energy. Numerous European zinc producers had to either shut down their smelters entirely or cut production down this year due to high energy costs and low inventories. Meanwhile, the Budel smelter of Nyrstar was planning to resume production partially this month, and giant Glencore said it expects to resume production in the first quarter of 2023. The global zinc market deficit rose to 103,000 tonnes in September from a revised deficit of 90,200 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 101,100 tonnes in August. During the first nine months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 43,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 101,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.75% to settle at 2966 while prices are down -0.45 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 262.2 and below same could see a test of 260.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 266, a move above could see prices testing 268.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 260.8-268.4.
* Zinc dropped as the renewed pandemic outbreak across the country weighed on the market sentiment.
* Global zinc market deficit rises to 103,000 T in September – ILZSG
* China imported 1,007 mt of refined zinc in October, down 77.55% on the month and 97.54% on the year.


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled up by 0.17% at 206.9 as declining inventories outweighed demand concerns sparked by rare protests in several Chinese cities against strict COVID-19 restrictions. Aluminium stocks at LME warehouses dropped 2,575 tonnes to 503,700 tonnes on Monday. Inventories were down 14.2% from 587,100 tonnes on Oct. 26. Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE declined 11.9% to 110,017 tonnes last Friday, the lowest since February 2017. Smelters in northern China are cutting output to reduce pollution during the winter, while the resumption of plants forced to go offline due to power issues has been slower than expected. The market outlook has also been clouded by weak demand in China, with main consumption sectors such as transportation and construction struggling from a slowing economy. Global primary aluminium output in October rose 3.1% year on year to 5.85 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.475 million tonnes, the IAI said. The aluminium ingot social inventories across China’s eight major markets hit a new low of 516,000 mt as of November 28, a drop of 2,000 mt from last Thursday. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.74% to settle at 5143 while prices are up 0.35 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 205.7 and below same could see a test of 204.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 208.5, a move above could see prices testing 210.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 204.5-210.1.
* Aluminium prices rebounded as declining inventories outweighed demand concerns.
* LME Inventories were down 14.2% from 587,100 tonnes on Oct. 26.
* SHFE Aluminium inventories declined 11.9% to 110,017 tonnes last Friday, the lowest since February 2017


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.25% at 960.8 on low level buying after prices dropped as mentha exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent at 1,107.20 tonnes as compared to 1,285.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 238.04 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 7.30%. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 250.97 tonnes in September 2021 showing a drop of 12.07%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 21.1 Rupees to end at 1101.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.11% to settle at 907 while prices are up 2.4 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 957.9 and below same could see a test of 955.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 963.2, a move above could see prices testing 965.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 955.1-965.7.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 21.1 Rupees to end at 1101.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha gained on low level buying after prices dropped as exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent
* In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported showing a drop of 7.30%.
# However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 2.08% at 7270 as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67%. Turmeric exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has rose by 14.65 percent at 88,384.27 tonnes as compared to 77,091.52 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,147.89 tonnes in August 2022 showing a rise of 15.16%. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,598.15 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 11.05%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7441.05 Rupees dropped -32.05 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -5.6% to settle at 8685 while prices are up 148 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7136 and below same could see a test of 7002 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7346, a move above could see prices testing 7422.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7002-7422.
* Turmeric prices gained as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7441.05 Rupees dropped -32.05 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.52% at 24690 amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. As per Gujarat Government, around 77,037 hectares of sowing has been completed as on 21st November 2022 in Jeera key growing regions in Gujarat and according to this data, normal area (three years average) in Gujarat likely to be around 421,457 hectares. Jeera exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has dropped by 21.28 percent at 1,09,587.28 tonnes as compared to 1,39,218.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes jeera was exported as against 24,448.33 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 26.04%. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,828.07 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 21.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -339 Rupees to end at 23888.35 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.66% to settle at 5421 while prices are up 370 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24535 and below same could see a test of 24380 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24870, a move above could see prices testing 25050.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 24380-25050.
* Jeera prices rose amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -339 Rupees to end at 23888.35 Rupees per 100 kg.


Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 1.36% at 31230 on reports that North Indian cotton’s quality has diminished due to extended monsoon. markets were receiving nearly a third lower in supplies than normal. Cotton supply is expected to remain around 38.7 million bales which was 39.2 million bales during 2021-22. Export demand from neighboring countries and winter season demand in domestic market is increased usually in Oct-Dec. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 490 Rupees to end at 32960 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 2.68% to settle at 2953 while prices are up 420 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 31000 and below same could see a test of 30760 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31440, a move above could see prices testing 31640.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 30760-31640.
* Cotton prices gained on reports that North Indian cotton’s quality has diminished due to extended monsoon.
* Cotton supply is expected to remain around 38.7 million bales which was 39.2 million bales during 2021-22.
* Data from CFTC showed that speculators cut their net short position on cotton futures
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 490 Rupees to end at 32960 Rupees.

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