Zinc trading range for the day is 212.8-221.4 - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.32% at 44683 after prices dropped amid rising optimism about quick economic recovery on the back of buoyant jobs data and a strong dollar. The triple combination of ultra-easy monetary policy, unprecedented government spending and the vaccination rollout boosted expectations of a robust economic recovery, making it difficult for the bullion to attract investors. As a result, the precious metal is on track for a third consecutive week of losses. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the economic reopening could boost inflation temporarily and that the US economy was going to start to see stronger employment in the next few months. However, Powell noted that the central bank was still a long way from its inflation and employment targets, and that any change in the Fed's QE would need actual progress towards those goals. A recent rally in bond yields has been supported by prospects of a swift economic recovery, helped by the coronavirus vaccine rollout and further fiscal support. The US unemployment rate edged down to 6.2 percent in February 2021, the lowest rate since April's record high of 14.8 percent and below market expectations of 6.3 percent. Still, the jobless rate remained well above pre-pandemic levels. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -6.58% to settled at 12300 while prices up 142 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 44360 and below same could see a test of 44037 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 44863, a move above could see prices testing 45043.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 44037-45043.
* Gold prices recovered to end with nominal gains after prices dropped amid quick economic recovery and a strong dollar.
* Fed’s Powell said that the economic reopening could boost inflation temporarily and that the US economy was going to start to see stronger employment
* US 10-Year treasury yield jumps to 1-year high
Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -0.48% at 65603 as prices remained under heavy selling pressure pressured by a stronger dollar and soaring US Treasury yields. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell once again downplayed concerns about higher interest rates and inflation, which, in turn, prompted a massive selloff in the US bond markets. The triple combination of ultra-easy monetary policy, unprecedented government spending and the vaccination rollout boosted expectations of a robust economic recovery, making it difficult for the bullion to attract investors. As a result, the precious metal is on track for a third consecutive week of losses. The dollar index gained breaking through 92 for the first time in more than three months and heading for its best weekly gain since September, supported by upbeat economic data from the US and soaring Treasury yields. The February payroll report came in stronger than forecast while Federal Reserve Chair Powell reiterated the economic reopening could boost inflation temporarily but still made a very dovish pledge to maintaining its current ultra-accommodative policy until the economy reaches full employment and inflation is at 2%. On the fiscal front, the Senate has started debating President Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package, setting the stage for its approval as soon. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.51% to settled at 12334 while prices down -318 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 64953 and below same could see a test of 64302 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 66177, a move above could see prices testing 66750.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 64302-66750.
* Silver prices remained under heavy selling pressure pressured by a stronger dollar and soaring US Treasury yields.
* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell once again downplayed concerns about higher interest rates and inflation
* The dollar index gained breaking through 92 for the first time in more than three months supported by upbeat economic data and soaring Treasury yields.
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 2.91% at 4844 after OPEC and its allies agreed to not increase supply in April as they await a more solid recovery in demand from the coronavirus pandemic. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that global oil markets have not fully recovered from the pandemic but are in better shape now than last year. Novak was speaking at the start of a meeting of OPEC+ oil producers where they are expected to decide on April output policy. OPEC and its allies agreed to extend most oil output cuts into April, offering small exemptions to Russia and Kazakhstan, after deciding that the demand recovery from the coronavirus pandemic was still fragile despite a recent oil price rally. OPEC's leader Saudi Arabia said it would extend its voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd), and would decide in coming months when to gradually phase it out. Possible changes to oil leasing and permitting requirements governing federal lands could lower oil production in the Permian Basin, a report from the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said. In late January, U.S. President Joe Biden signed a raft of executive orders that paused new leasing for drilling on public lands and waters that account for about a quarter of U.S. oil and gas production. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 17.79% to settled at 5576 while prices up 137 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4738 and below same could see a test of 4632 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4906, a move above could see prices testing 4968.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4632-4968.
* Crude oil prices rose after OPEC and its allies agreed to not increase supply in April as they await a more solid recovery in demand from the coronavirus pandemic.
* OPEC+ extends most oil output cuts into April, Saudi keeps voluntary curb
* Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that global oil markets have not fully recovered from the pandemic but are in better shape now than last year.
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -1.74% at 197.2 on forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks than previously expected. Traders, however, noted the weather is expected to turn slightly cooler in mid March, which should boost heating demand a bit during the week of March 14 over the week of March 7. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 90.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March. That compares with a 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would drop from 112.3 bcfd this week to 104.9 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally milder before edging up to 105.1 bcfd in two weeks. The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 10.2 bcfd so far in March. That compares with a four-month low of 8.5 bcfd in February as extreme cold cut power and gas supplies to the facilities, and a monthly record high of 10.7 bcfd in December. Buyers around the world continue to purchase near record amounts of U.S. gas because prices in Europe and Asia remain high enough to cover the cost of shipping the U.S. fuel across the oceans. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.8% to settled at 8326 while prices down -3.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 195.4 and below same could see a test of 193.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 200.4, a move above could see prices testing 203.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 193.6-203.6.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks than previously expected.
* However, the weather is expected to turn slightly cooler in mid March, which should boost heating demand a bit.
* The U.S. EIA said U.S. utilities pulled 98 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Feb. 26.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 2.7% at 691.05 as support seen after Chinese government has set its 2021 economic growth target at more than 6%, Premier Li Keqiang said in his annual work report at the opening of this year's meeting of parliament. China did not set a gross domestic product target last year due to uncertainties arising from the pandemic. The government has set its 2021 target for consumer price inflation at around 3% and its budget deficit goal of around 3.2% of GDP, Li said. In 2020, China set an inflation target of around 3.5% and a budget deficit target of above 3.6%.In terms of data, the number of US initial jobless claims last week exceeded expectations, and the recovery rate of the job market showed signs of slowing down. Stocks of copper in Shanghai bonded areas increased for the third consecutive week. Data showed that the stocks rose 4,900 mt from the prior week to 365,500 mt as of Friday February 26. The previous value was revised to 360,600 mt. The recovery cycle of domestic consumption was lengthened due to the rapid increase of copper prices after the holiday, and the large price difference between refined copper and copper scrap also had a negative impact on refined copper consumption. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.62% to settled at 3398 while prices up 18.2 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 678.3 and below same could see a test of 665.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 699.2, a move above could see prices testing 707.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 665.5-707.3.
* Copper prices gained as support seen after China sets 2021 GDP growth target at more than 6%
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE rose 10.2 percent from last Friday, the exchange said.
* The number of US initial jobless claims last week exceeded expectations, and the recovery rate of the job market showed signs of slowing down.
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.49% at 218.1 getting support as downstream users have restored production. Social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei decreased 3,200 mt in the week ended March 5 to 258,900 mt. Treatment charges for zinc concentrate rose 100 yuan/mt and 50 yuan/mt in Hunan and Guangxi respectively as local imported concentrate increased, but extended declines in Yunnan, Sichuan and Inner Mongolia. China expects its 2021 budget deficit to be around 3.2% of GDP, Premier Li Keqiang said in his work report at the start of China’s annual session of parliament, the National People’s Congress (NPC). Last year’s budget deficit target was set at above 3.6% of GDP. China set a modest annual economic growth target, at above 6%, and pledged to create more jobs in cities than last year, as the world’s second-biggest economy emerged from a year disrupted by the effects of COVID-19. In 2020, China dropped a gross domestic product growth target from the premier’s work report for the first time since 2002 after the pandemic devastated its economy. “As a general target, China’s growth rate has been set at over 6% for this year,” Premier Li Keqiang said in his 2021 work report. “In setting this target, we have taken into account the recovery of economic activity.” Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.69% to settled at 1805 while prices up 3.2 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 215.5 and below same could see a test of 212.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 219.8, a move above could see prices testing 221.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 212.8-221.4.
* Zinc prices gained support as downstream users have restored production.
* China expects its 2021 budget deficit to be around 3.2% of GDP, Premier Li Keqiang said
* Social inventories of refined zinc ingots across Shanghai decreased 3,200 mt to 258,900 mt.
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled up by 2.52% at 1192.2 as demand for battery grade nickel for electric vehicles is expected to boom in as the world moves towards a lower-carbon economy. However prices dropped on weekly basis on rising battery-grade supply outlook following a major supply deal. China’s Tsingshan Holding Group said it would supply 100,000 tonnes of nickel matte - an intermediate product that can be used to make battery-grade nickel for electric vehicles - to two other Chinese firms within a year from October. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) injected CNY 20 billion into the market via seven-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 2.2 percent on March 5th, 2021. With CNY 20 billion reverse repos maturing on the same day, the move led to a net liquidity withdrawal of CNY 10 billion from the market. The central bank said the move intended to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity of the banking system. The dollar index gained further ground as soaring US Treasury yields lent some optimism to the greenback bulls. In recent remarks, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell once again downplayed concerns about higher interest rates and inflation, which, in turn, prompted a massive selloff in the US bond markets. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -16.73% to settled at 1812 while prices up 29.3 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1169.1 and below same could see a test of 1146.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1216.4, a move above could see prices testing 1240.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1146.1-1240.7.
* Nickel gains as demand for battery grade nickel for electric vehicles is expected to boom in as the world moves towards a lower-carbon economy.
* China’s Tsingshan Holding Group said it would supply 100,000 tonnes of nickel matte
* PBOC injected CNY 20 billion into the market via seven-day reverse repos at an interest rate of 2.2 percent
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 2.88% at 176.75 as concerns of supply cuts in top consumer China pushed prices near their highest level in 9-1/2 years. China's Inner Mongolia, a major aluminium producing region, will stop reviewing new projects in industries which consume large amounts of energy including aluminium, as it attempts to meet energy efficiency targets. The LME cash aluminium was last at a discount of $3 per tonne over the three-month contract , shrinking from a $14.50 discount in the previous session, indicating tightening in nearby supplies. China set a modest annual economic growth target, at above 6%, and pledged to create more jobs in cities than last year, as the world’s second-biggest economy emerged from a year disrupted by the effects of COVID-19. “As a general target, China’s growth rate has been set at over 6% for this year,” Premier Li Keqiang said in his 2021 work report. “In setting this target, we have taken into account the recovery of economic activity.” China’s GDP expanded 2.3% last year, the only major economy to see growth. Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed with a global producer to pay a premium of $148 and $149 a tonne for April-June shipments, up 14-15% from this quarter. The figures are higher than the $130 a tonne premiums paid this quarter and mark a third consecutive quarterly increase. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.23% to settled at 1067 while prices up 4.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 173.9 and below same could see a test of 171 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 178.4, a move above could see prices testing 180.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 171-180.
* Aluminium prices rose as concerns of supply cuts in top consumer China pushed prices near their highest level in 9-1/2 years.
* The LME cash aluminium was last at a discount of $3 per tonne, shrinking from a $14.50 discount in the previous session, indicating tightening in nearby supplies.
* Japanese buyers agree Q2 aluminium premium at $148 – $149/T
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.41% at 954 on low level buying amid demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1093.7 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.08% to settled at 51 while prices up 3.9 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 949.7 and below same could see a test of 945.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 957.7, a move above could see prices testing 961.3.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 945.3-961.3.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1093.7 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gains on low level buying amid demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled up by 0.86% at 5045 as worries about adverse weather in Brazil stoked concerns about global supplies. In Brazil, the world's biggest soy exporter, soybean harvesting are furthest behind schedule in south-central Mato Grosso, according to weather firm Maxar. Widespread rains in Mato Grosso over the next week should keep fieldwork behind the normal pace. European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 9.58 million tonnes by Feb. 28, data published by the European Commission showed. Prices gained supported by strong Chinese demand and falling U.S. inventories — led to extra attention on the USDA's expectations for this year's planting. Soyabean prices surged due to delays in exports from Brazil boosted expectations of higher demand for U.S. supplies. Chinese soybean crushers are expected to curtail operations sharply in the coming months due to harvest delays in top exporter Brazil, pushing up prices and likely leading to a rundown in inventories. Soyabean gains were partly offset by slowing U.S. export demand as the South American harvest continues to ramp up. U.S. soybean processors likely crushed 5.867 million short tons of the oilseed in January, or 195.6 million bushels. Large speculators raised their net long position in soybeans futures in the week to Feb. 23, regulatory data showed. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5202 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.27% to settled at 137735 while prices up 43 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4977 and below same could see a test of 4909 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5083, a move above could see prices testing 5121.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4909-5121.
* Soyabean prices gained as worries about adverse weather in Brazil stoked concerns about global supplies.
* European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 9.58 million tonnes by Feb. 28,
* USDA attache sees Argentina 2020/21 soybean crop at 47.5 million T
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 5202 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 3.22% at 1200.6 amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. A strong export pace of soybeans could limit the amount of supplies available to crush into soymeal and soyoil. Government of India, lowered basic import duty on edible oils. The basic custom duty on CPO slashed from 27.5 percent to 15 percent whereas, soybean oil and sunflower oil duty is cut to 15% from 35%. The government has proposed 17.5% cess on CPO and 20% cess on crude soybean and sunflower oil, further added. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has compiled the export data for export of oilmeals for the month of December 2020 and provisionally reported at 512,997 tons compared to 220,404 tons in December, 2019 i.e. more than doubled (133%). The overall export of oilmeals during April to December 2020 recovered and provisionally reported at 2,461,696 tons compared to 1,955,276 tons during the same period of previous year i.e. up by 26%. At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1180.7 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.47% to settled at 39365 while prices up 37.5 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1167 and below same could see a test of 1133 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1221, a move above could see prices testing 1241.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1133-1241.
* Ref soyoil prices gained amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil
* Very heavy rains remain in the forecast for Brazil's northern soybean belt, where farmers are trying to harvest the soybean crop.
* A strong export pace of soybeans could limit the amount of supplies available to crush into soymeal and soyoil.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1180.7 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 2.64% at 1077.7 boosted by rallies in the likes of soyaoil and sunflower. However, expectations for an increase in production and in February-end stocks limited gains. Stockpiles in the world's second-largest producer were seen up 7% from the previous month. Production was expected to have risen 5.8% to 1.19 million tonnes, after declining for four months in a row as La Nina weather pattern and a pandemic-induced labour shortage disrupted harvesting. Exports were seen ticking up 0.5% to 952,500 tonnes, recovering from a 42% plunge in the previous month. Cargo surveyors had estimated a fall between 4.6% and 8% amid lower shipments to China and the United States. Demand is likely to improve ahead of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan and Eid celebration. Mixed weather has kept 2020/21 Malaysia palm oil production estimates unchanged at 19.1 million tonnes. A slowdown in rainfall kept 2020/21 Indonesian production estimates at 46.0 million tonnes. Malaysia's palm oil stocks likely grew 7.6% month-on-month to 1.43 million tonnes at end-February due to a slower decline in production compared to exports. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for February fell 4.6% to 1,052,779 tonnes from January as China and the United States cut down purchases, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 7.8 Rupees to end at 1066.9 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.88% to settled at 7547 while prices up 27.7 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1054.3 and below same could see a test of 1031 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1091.2, a move above could see prices testing 1104.8.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 1031-1104.8.
* Crude palm oil gains boosted by rallies in the likes of soyaoil and sunflower.
* However, expectations for an increase in production and in February-end stocks limited gains.
* Production was expected to have risen 5.8% to 1.19 million tonnes
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 7.8 Rupees to end at 1066.9 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 2.32% at 5471 due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty. However upside seen limited as the mustard sowing was excellent this year and production is expected to be better with favorable weather. The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis. The daily arrival of mustard in the current weekend was 1.85 lakh kattas. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Rajasthan has reached 70 thousand kattas. Mustard is getting up to 7/15 percent moisture. The weather is changing, so the moisture content is expected to decrease soon. The daily arrival of new mustard in the mandis of Uttar Pradesh is increasing day by day. The latest Government data shows that the planted area in Mustard or RM seed has so far reached 73.25 Lakh hectares as against 68.64 Lakh hectares during last year’s corresponding period. The government aims to take the area under mustard to around 80 lakh hectares this year, under the Oilseeds Mission program. The mustard crop continues providing better prices to farmers than the MSP till now. India’s 2020-21 mustard crop may touch 100 lakh ton-level due to higher sowing and conducive weather. The sowing of oilseed crops has increased to 81.80 lakh hectares in the current Rabi whereas till this time last year, it was sown only in 77.79 lakh hectares. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5409.75 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 21.57% to settled at 51280 while prices up 124 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5363 and below same could see a test of 5256 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5534, a move above could see prices testing 5598.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5256-5598.
* Mustard seed gained due to better demand as millers remain in the procurement due to the pipeline being empty.
* However upside seen limited as the mustard sowing was excellent this year and production is expected to be better with favorable weather.
* The arrival of new crops has started increasing in the mandis. The daily arrival of mustard in the current weekend was 1.85 lakh kattas.
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 5409.75 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3.35% at 9264 amid fears of lower output. Apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher. However upside seen limited as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8105 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.06% to settled at 8615 while prices up 300 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 8950 and below same could see a test of 8634 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 9452, a move above could see prices testing 9638.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 8634-9638.
* Turmeric prices gained amid fears of lower output
* Apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher.
* However upside seen limited as no demand for shipments at current prices of around ₹9,000 and export prospects of turmeric have been affected.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 8105 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 14025 as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature. However, the arrival from the fields has started intensifying and the market is awaiting better quality spices with lower moisture content. In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags in Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot as compared to 7,000 bags in the previous session. The Unjha market is receiving nearly 1,000 bags per day from north Gujarat, Saurashtra, and parts of Rajasthan. Jeera production for 2021-22 (marketing period) is estimated at 391,291 MT (around 71 lakh bags each of 55 kg) compared to last year’s 451,451 MT (82 lakh bags). Major export demand coming from UAE and other gulf countries ahead of Ramzan. Domestic demand is also boosted by Ramzan and marriage season. Weather conditions in major producing states have hampered the quality and supply of jeera. On the international front support is also seen as turkey and Syria have reported less production of cumin this season. Production in Syria had dropped around 25-30 percent in 2020 versus the previous year due to political instability that has hampered the farming sector. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13433.35 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.95% to settled at 3369 while prices up 15 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13935 and below same could see a test of 13850 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14115, a move above could see prices testing 14210.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13850-14210.
* Jeera prices gained as there is a possibility of a decrease in the production of cumin due to the rise in temperature.
* In Unjha Mandi, 21,000 bags have come in as compared to 12,500 bags
* In Rajkot whereas 7,500 bags have arrived in Rajkot as compared to 7,000 bags in the previous session.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13433.35 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 22150 as the market is getting cotton supplies from the Cotton Corporation of India. This year the production of cotton is being reported in the country at 360 million bales and till now 270-275 lakh bales are being said to come in, while the arrival is not more than 225 lakh bales. There will be a shortage of raw material cottonseed in the coming time, which does not seem to be a major fall in the prices of cotton seed oil cake. CAI has kept its consumption estimate for the current crop year at 330.00 lakh bale in the previous month. India’s cotton exports to get a boost with global cotton consumption seen going up. In its latest cotton demand and supply estimates for March, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has revised upwards the global consumption projections at 24.5 million tonnes (mt) for 2020-21 against 22.8 mt in the previous year. However, the rise in the global consumption will boost prospects for Indian cotton exports. Cotton Association of India (CAI) had projected India’s cotton exports at 54 lakh bales (each of 170 kg) for the season 2020-21 against 50 lakh bales in the previous year. This, according to trade sources, is likely to further go up by the end of the season in September 2021. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -50 Rupees to end at 21990 Rupees. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -5.52% to settled at 8043 while prices down -30 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21960 and below same could see a test of 21780 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 22240, a move above could see prices testing 22340.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21780-22340.
* Cotton settled flat as the market is getting cotton supplies from the Cotton Corporation of India.
* India’s cotton exports to get a boost with global cotton consumption seen going up.
* ICAC has revised upwards the global consumption projections at 24.5 million tonnes (mt) for 2020-21 against 22.8 mt in the previous year.
* In spot market, Cotton dropped by -50 Rupees to end at 21990 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled up by 0.44% at 5034 as actual production likely to be much lower than official estimate due to damage to crop due to rising heat. This time the heat started to rise from February itself and the high temperature is adversely affecting the growth of the gram crop. Average yield rates and quality of grains are likely to be affected in important producing areas. Chana crop in Maharashtra is likely to be polluted, sowing in Madhya Pradesh has reduced since last year and the weather is also not completely suitable or favorable for the crop. Sowing has increased in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Rajasthan, but if the weather is not good then the crop is sure to suffer a lot of damage. Another important growing region - Karnataka has seen a decrease in the area under sowing of gram. Data from the Union Ministry of Agriculture shows that the production area of the most important pulses-gram during the Rabi season has increased from 107.30 lakh hectare last year to the highest level of 112 lakh hectare, which is much higher than the average annual area of 92.77 lakh hectare. The minimum support price of gram has been increased from Rs 4875 per quintal in 2019-20 to Rs 5100 per quintal for the 2020-21 season. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4970.75 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 11.24% to settled at 50760 while prices up 22 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4982 and below same could see a test of 4931 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5087, a move above could see prices testing 5141.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4931-5141.
* Chana prices gained as actual production likely to be much lower than official estimate due to damage to crop due to rising heat.
* This time the heat started to rise from February itself and the high temperature is adversely affecting the growth of the gram crop.
* Data shows that the production area during the Rabi season has increased from 107.30 lakh hectare last year to the highest level of 112 lakh hectare
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4970.75 Rupees per 100 kgs.
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