Wheat Demand Supply Price Trend Analysis 06 Jan 2022 By Origo Commodities India Pvt. Ltd
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Overview
Dec'21 is around 4.5 mmt. Exports likely to touch 6 MMT if similar pace continues. Major export destination - Bangladesh (56%), SE Asia (14%), Middle East (12%), Sri Lanka (9%) & Nepal (4%).
WHEAT TO TRADE FIRM IN COMING DAYS
Wheat prices traded mostly firm over previous day. CBOT prices were trading down by 1% from previous day.
Demand and Supply
Key Factors
* Wheat sowing is down by 1% y-o-y. Till 31st Dec'21, wheat sowing is completed on 325.88 Lakh Ha Vs 329.1 Lakh Ha. Sowing is completed on 93% of targeted area.
* Wheat arrivals declined by 24.8% over previous week at 1.36 Lakh MT.
Govt. wheat distribution under all schemes from Apr-21 to Nov-21 was 32.24 Vs 26.6 MMT last year. Meanwhile, wheat distribution under PMGKAY from May-21 to Nov-21 was 12.9 Vs 10.36 MMT last year. This scheme is extended till Mar-22 wherein another 7.3 MMT allocated from Dec-21 to Mar-22
* Wheat Open market sale from Apr-21 to 22nd Dec21 was 6.32 Vs 1.17 MMT last year.
* Govt. wheat end stocks in 2021-22 is estimated at 21.72 Vs 24.7 MMT last year.
* Total wheat rake movement during Jun-21 to Dec-21 was 25 Lakh MT. In Dec-21, around 4 Lakh MT wheat rake movement happened, of which 2.06 Lakh MT to sea ports and 0.20 Lakh MT cross border and rest 1.75 Lakh MT moved inter-state.
* Exports for the ongoing year is estimated at 6 MMT, up 134% y-o-y. Total exports from Apr
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