IGI Logo

Crisil Research in its latest report has said that uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall is likely to impact the kharif sowing, which is expected to fall one per cent as compared to last year. It added ‘in our view, overall kharif sowing is expected to remain one per cent lower year-on-year.’ It also said ‘Cumulative sowing till August 8 was two per cent lower year-on-year, attributable to the advancement in sowing last year, and three per cent higher than the average of the past five years’.

The report noted that the southwest monsoon accelerated to close the deficit in long period average (LPA) of rainfall from seven per cent as on July 12 to just four per cent as on August 8, after stalling from June-end to mid-July. However, the India Meteorological Department forecasts that monsoon will remain normal for the rest of the season. During the recovery phase (commencing July 13), the country received rainfall two per cent lower than the LPA as on August 8; and the rainfall was higher by 11 per cent and 12 per cent in north-west India and south peninsula region, respectively. The central and east & northeast regions lagged 4 per cent and 20 per cent lower rains, respectively.

Gujarat, which accounts for 40 per cent and 20 per cent of the total groundnut and cotton acreage, and Odisha, at 8 per cent of the total paddy acreage, are at a cumulative deficit of 43 per cent and 28 per cent, respectively. In contrast, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Haryana have received excessive rainfall. The report noted with the Indian agriculture largely rainfall-dependent, the now-on, now-off monsoon this year has shifted the sowing from much-expected oilseeds (groundnut and soybean) to maize and paddy for kharif.