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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

• The US dollar edged higher on Friday amid better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data. The US economy added 390K payrolls in May, the least since April last year but above market forecasts of 325K. However, sharp upside was capped by rise in unemployment rate. US unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6% in May, remained the lowest since February 2020 and compared with market expectations of 3.5%

• US$INR futures maturing on June 28 ended higher on Friday amid strong dollar and weak domestic indices

• The rupee is expected to depreciate today amid strong dollar and rising crude oil prices. However, investors will remain vigilant ahead of RBI MPC meeting minutes

• US$INR futures likely to head towards its resistance level of 77.90

Dollar Index Vs US$INR

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