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Technical Outlook on Rupee

• USDINR pair on the weekly broke above the previous four week high and made a candle with a lower long shadow denoting buying at lower levels. On the daily chart pair has broken above the range 76.40 and 77.10 and trading above 20 and 50 SMA indicating bullish momentum. Momentum indicators RSI has given a positive crossover denoting upside momentum.

• If pair break above 77.15 could see prices heading towards 77.75 and 79.15 on the upside . On the other hand, break below 76.40 would see pair testing 76 and 75.50 on the downside.

Fundamental news on USDINR

• US Dollar Index is now at 20-year high and US bond yields made highs high since 2018. RBI announced a surprise 40-bps hike in repo rate to 4.4% and also hiked CRR by 50 bps.

• US jobs report has come in strong, with the US economy adding greater than expected 4.28 lakh jobs. Even if the average wage growth has moved lower but is not enough to signal any deteriorating in wage trend and still inflation remains a major concern

• FOMC delivered on expected line, a 50-bps hike with a clear signal that a 75-bps hike is not likely in the coming meetings. Also, they made it clear that the process of reduction in the balance sheet will be through reduced reinvestment of maturing holdings than outright sales.

Technical Outlook on EURINR

• EURINR pair making lower lows and lower highs denoting bearish trend. On the daily chart pair closed below 20 SMA and 50 SMA confirm a short term bearish trend.

• Momentum indicators RSI making lower highs and lower lows negative momentum.

• From the below observation we can conclude that if prices break below 80.55 pair could test 80 and 79.50 on the downside . On the other hand break above 81.75 could see pair testing 82.50 and 83 on the upside.

Fundamental news on EURINR

• Eurozone manufacturers lost further growth momentum at the start of the second quarter as output increased only marginally and at the weakest rate over the current 22- month sequence of growth. The slower expansion was accompanied by a subdued increase in new orders and sustained supply-side pressures as COVID restrictions in China and the ongoing war in Ukraine caused disruptions.

• In March 2022, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade decreased by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU, compared with February 2022, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In February 2022, the retail trade volume increased by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU.

Technical Outlook on GBPINR

• GBPINR on the weekly chart making lower lows and lower highs denoting bearish trend. On the daily chart pair has closed below 20 SMA and 50 SMA confirming downward trend in short term.

• Momentum indicators RSI making lower lows and lower highs confirming bearish trend.

• Break below 94.55 could see prices testing 93 and 91.80 on the downside. On the flipside break above 96.55 could see the pair testing 97.30 and 98.15 on the upside

Fundamental news on GBPINR

• UK construction PMI slowed to the weakest so far this year as rising costs, higher borrowing costs, and economic uncertainty hit demand.

• BOE hiked as expected, by 25-bps but it was the comments from the governor that knocked GBPUSD out of the park.

• BOE said that inflation can rise towards 10% before the end of this year and the high cost of living can weigh on consumption so badly that the economy can risk slipping into recession early next year. BOE will go slowdown on their bond sales

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