IGI Logo

Rupee heads for fourth weekly decline

Indian rupee heads for the fourth weekly decline following surge in crude oil prices and stronger dollar index. The forward markets indicating steady opening for the rupee. On Thursday, rupee gains 12 paise to 74.17 a dollar, snapping two days of down tick. The improvement in risk sentiments and steady dollar index supported rupee. Governments vaccination drive may support the economic recovery in coming month. While higher crude oil prices could weigh on rupee. Oil prices rose on Friday, heading for a fifth straight week of gains, with demand growth seen outstripping supply on bets that OPEC+ producers will be cautious in returning more output to the market from August.

In Near term, spot USDINR is in mild indecisive mode by forming two consecutives daily Doji candlestick pattern. We may see corrective move up to 73.70 before heading towards April high of 75.41.

President Joe Biden reached to tentative deal of $579 billion infrastructure plan, saying it would create millions of jobs while fulfilling a major piece of his economic agenda. The deal announcement lifted the broader US market. Following strong US market Asian markets set to open higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 322.58 points to reach 34,196.82. The S&P 500 reached a fresh record of 4,266.49 after gaining nearly 0.6%.

The dollar dropped relative to most of its major peers as signs that the economic recovery is gaining steam boosted risk appetites. The pound lagged Group-of-10 currencies after the Bank of England warned against raising rates too soon. Euro pinned below its 200-day moving average at $1.1940 and the yen just short of a 15-month low at 110.86 per dollar.

Investors will be watching a key inflation indicator on today when the Commerce Department releases the core personal consumption expenditures price index. Market Conesus for prices rose 3.4% in May from a year earlier.

USDINR

USDINR June futures has been consolidating between 74 to 74.50.

The pair is expected to retraced in coming days after gaining for four weeks in row.

Momentum oscillator, relative strength index of 14 days period about to exit from overbought zone suggesting near term consolidation with long unwinding.

USDINR June futures expected to trade with slightly with negative bias in today’s trade expected to head towards psychological level of 74 while continue to face resistance around 74.35.

To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here

Please refer disclaimer at https://www.hdfcsec.com/article/disclaimer-1795

SEBI Registration number is INZ000171337

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views. Click Here For Disclaimer