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Market Round up

* Indian rupee is expected to open higher following overnight weakness in the dollar which pushed the Asian currencies higher. Implied opening from forwards suggestsspotUSDINRmay starttrading around 81.32.

* India’s rupee is likely to track gains in emerging Asian peers after posting its first monthly advance for the year in November. On Wednesday, spot USDINR fell 0.4% to 81.4287 and declined 1.6% last month, the first monthly gain of the current year. Technically, spot USDINR is now having support at 80.90 and resistance shifted to 81.90. The near-term bias remains bearish as long as it trades below 82.10.

* India’s GDP growth slowed to 6.3% last quarter from 13.5% in the previous three months as inflation remained high and rising interest rates tempered demand in Asia’sthird-largest economy. However, it beat the estimated 6.2%.

* India’s fiscal deficit was 7.58 trillion rupees ($93.1 billion) for the April-October period, according to the Controller General of Accounts. The deficit was 45.6% of the budgeted 16.6 trillion rupee target for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2023.

* Base case envisages a downshift to a 35bp hike at the Dec. 7 RBI monetary policy meeting, followed by a final 25bp in the February review, although the latter is a close call.

* A gauge of the dollar extended declines into a third day after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered guarded optimism that price pressures will slow, cementing expectations the central bank will step down from its aggressive tightening pace next month. The trend is likely to continue if US core CPI data due later Thursday edgeslower asforecast.

USDINR

Technical Observations:

USDINR Dec fut hovering below 20 days simple moving average. Slowly and steadily, it has been trading lower in the past few days

The pair has been facing resistance around 81.95, the 20 days simple moving average

It has support at 80.88, the lower band of the Bollinger Band

The derivative data indicates a short build-up in the pair with a rise in the price, volumes and open interest.

Momentum oscillator, RSI is currently placed below 50 and turned weak indicating bearish momentum.

The above technical evidence suggests bearishness with the downside support at 80.90 and resistance at 82.15.

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