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The Indian rupee is expected to open flat even after a weaker dollar index amid month-end dollar demand from the importers. However, the strength in the domestic equity, lower crude oil prices and foreign fund inflows will pull the local unit higher towards 81.70

On Monday, spot USDINR fell 18 paise to 81.91, backed by the corporate dollar inflows, stronger domestic equities and lower crude oil prices. Technically, the pair has support at 81.70 and resistance at 82.30. The bias remains bearish as long as it trades below 82.50.

Stocks in Asia were mixed and the dollar weakened as investors digested conflicting corporate earnings and economic data. US equity futures were little changed in Asia after the S&P 500 closed just 0.1% higher on Monday and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.2%.

Developing-nation shares fell for a fifth day on Monday, marking their longest losing streak since early September, as investors waited for fresh data to assess the possibility of additional Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. MSCI’s gauge for EM equities dropped 0.4%

The US dollar declined in New York trading to head for the third straight daily loss. The euro outperformed G-10 peers while the yen weakened after Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda downplayed expectations of a shift in policy at his first policy meeting. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said at the parliament that the central bank is not at the stage to talk about how to normalize yield curve control.

he Dallas Fed April manufacturing gauge came in weaker than forecast. Later this week, US GDP data is forecast to reveal slower growth, and the so-called core PCE deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to show price growth cooled.

Technical Observations:

USDINR April fut has upward-slopping trendline support at 81.90.

It has been forming a bearish pattern of lower tops and bottoms on the daily chart.

Momentum Oscillator, RSI of 14 days period is oscillating below 50 and weakening on the daily chart.

MACD has been tread below a zero line and stayed below the MACD moving average line

Long unwinding has been seen as price and open interest declined.

The pair has support at 81.45 while continuing to resist at 82.40.

We remain bearish on USDINR April fut as long as it trades below 82.50 with the downside eying at 81.45

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