IGI Logo

Rupee Outlook and Strategy

* US dollar declined yesterday amid rise in risk appetite in the global markets, disappointing economic data from US and fall in US treasury yields. Stocks closed higher as FOMC meeting minutes showed that most of the officials favoured slowing pace of interest rate hike. Policymakers were even worried over the risk of rapid policy tightening on economic growth and financial stability

* Rupee future maturing on November 28 depreciated by 0.30% yesterday on FII outflows and as investors remained cautious ahead of FOMC meeting minutes

* Rupee is expected to trade with a positive bias on optimistic global market sentiments, decline in crude oil prices and weakness in dollar. Meanwhile, investors are worried that global economy is deteriorating. Business survey’s pointed decline in output across major countries in globe. US$INR (November) is facing strong resistance near 82.00 level as long as it sustains below this level it may slip back to 81.45 level

Euro and Pound Outlook

* Euro rallied yesterday amid weakness in dollar and optimistic global market sentiments. Market sentiments improved after FOMC meeting minutes showed that most of the policymakers are in view that central bank should slow the pace of interest rate increases. However, sharp upside was capped on disappointing economic data from euro area. Manufacturing PMI data showed activity in sector contracted for 5 th consecutive month and Services PMI data showed activity in sector contracted for 3 rd successive month

* Euro is expected to trade with a positive bias majorly on the back of weak dollar and rise in risk appetite in the global markets. However, sharp gain’s in single currency may be prevented on fears that euro zone my slip into recession. Additionally, market participants will keep a close eye on ECB meeting minutes to get hint on future monetary stance. EURUSD is taking support near 1.0360 levels, as long as it sustains above this level EURUSD may rise back to 1.0450 levels. EURINR (November) is expected to trade in a range of 84.80-85.30

* Pound appreciated yesterday majorly on the back of weakness in dollar and rise in risk appetite in the global markets. However, sharp upside was capped as Manufacturing and Services PMI data showed activity in both sectors contracted, adding to signs of recession

*The pound is expected to trade with a positive bias amid weak dollar and positive global market sentiments. Meanwhile, market will remain vigilant ahead of MPC member speeches to get the hint on future rate hikes. GBPUSD is holding support near 1.2000 level. As long as it sustains above this level pound may rally back to 1.2150 levels. GBPINR (November) is expected to trade in a range of 98.20-98.80

To Read Complete Report & Disclaimer Click Here

Please refer disclaimer at https://secure.icicidirect.com/Content/StaticData/Disclaimer.html
SEBI Registration number INZ000183631

Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer