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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.42% at 52671 buoyed by fading Treasury yields, while the negative sentiment around the dollar lent further optimism to bulls. A substantial majority of Fed officials judged that a slowing in the pace of the fed funds rate increase would likely soon be appropriate, as it would better allow the Committee to assess progress toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability, minutes from the November 1-2 FOMC meeting showed. Policymakers also noted that with inflation showing little sign of abating, and with supply and demand imbalances in the economy persisting, the ultimate level of the federal funds rate that would be necessary to achieve the Committee's goals was somewhat higher than they had previously expected. The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 75bps to 3.75%-4% during its November 2022 meeting, marking a sixth consecutive rate hike and the fourth straight three-quarter point increase, pushing borrowing costs to a new high since 2008. Physical gold demand in Asia stayed soft, with premiums in top hub China easing further as fresh COVID-19 restrictions dimmed activity while higher domestic prices put off most buyers in India. Premiums in China eased to $10-15 an ounce over benchmark spot prices from last week's $8-$25. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.62% to settle at 3909 while prices are up 220 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52532 and below same could see a test of 52392 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52780, a move above could see prices testing 52888.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 52392-52888.
* Gold climbed buoyed by fading Treasury yields, while the negative sentiment around the dollar lent further optimism to bulls.
* Fed considers slower rate increases to be appropriate
* The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 75bps to 3.75%-4% during its November 2022 meeting


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.59% at 61993 after Fed's early minutes showed a "substantial majority" of Fed officials supported slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes at upcoming meetings. Besides supporting bullion, hesitancy by the Fed to maintain the pace of its sharp tightening cycle would lift prices due to higher demand for industrial silver usage through electrical conductors. Signs of low supply also lifted prices, as inventories at New York’s COMEX fell 70% in the last 18 months to just over 1 million tonnes. Also, during the period, stocks at the London Bullion Market Association fell for the 10th straight month to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said it is premature and nothing is off the table regarding the size of the rate hike at the next policy meeting in December. Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester said she doesn't see any pause in the rate hike cycle yet, while Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he favors slowing the pace of interest rate increases, with no more than 1 percentage point more of hikes. The OECD forecast global growth to ease to 2.2% next year from 3.1% in 2022. In 2024, growth is projected to be 2.7%, helped by initial steps to ease policy interest rates. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.33% to settle at 10153 while prices are up 363 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61742 and below same could see a test of 61491 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62352, a move above could see prices testing 62711.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 61491-62711.
* Silver rose after Fed's minutes showed a "substantial majority" supported slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes at upcoming meetings.
* Signs of low supply also lifted prices, as inventories at New York’s COMEX fell 70% in the last 18 months to just over 1 million tonnes.
* Stocks at the London Bullion Market Association fell for the 10th straight month to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.49% at 6420 trimming some of losses seen earlier as surging Covid cases in China stoked fears of even tighter movement restrictions that could hurt energy demand in the world’s top crude importer. Investors also weighed a larger-than-expected build in US gasoline stocks, which jumped by 3.058 million barrels last week despite forecasts for a 383,000 barrel gain, though US crude inventories dropped significantly. Meanwhile, markets evaluated the impact of the G7’s proposed price cap on Russian oil in the range of $65-70 per barrel, higher than current prices for Urals. Still, investors remained cautious as OPEC could further intervene in markets to cope with a recession-driven demand downturn. U.S. crude oil stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 1.6 million barrels in the latest week to 390.5 million barrels, the lowest level since March 1984, the Energy Information Administration. U.S. East Coast gasoline stocks fell in the period to 47.1 million barrels, the lowest level since November 2012, while refinery utilization in the region rose to 102.9%, the highest on record. U.S. crude stockpiles fell, but gasoline and distillate inventories both rose substantially, alleviating a bit of concern about market tightness, the Energy Information Administration said. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.45% to settle at 16802 while prices are up 31 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6352 and below same could see a test of 6285 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6457, a move above could see prices testing 6495.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6285-6495.
* Crude oil trimmed some of losses seen earlier as surging Covid cases in China stoked fears of even tighter movement restrictions.
* Investors also weighed a larger-than-expected build in US gasoline stocks, which jumped by 3.058 million barrels last week
* Investors remained cautious as OPEC could further intervene in markets to cope with a recession-driven demand downturn.


Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -0.54% at 587.5 on a smaller-than-expected draw in inventories last week and doubts whether or not Freeport LNG will be able to restart operations next month. The latest EIA data showed US utilities pulled 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ending November 18th, below market expectations of an 87 billion draw. Freeport LNG delayed the plant's restart from November to December but has not yet submitted a request to restart the export plant, raising questions about another delay, which would mean more gas available for domestic use. Meanwhile, workers at the largest US rail union voted against a tentative contract deal reached in September, raising the possibility of a year-end strike that could disrupt coal deliveries and force power generators to burn more gas. U.S. natural gas futures implied volatility hit a record high following weeks of rapid price moves due to changing winter weather forecasts and questions about the restart of the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas. With less cold weather coming, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 126.3 bcfd this week to 113.7 bcfd next week. The forecasts for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -75.27% to settle at 716 while prices are down -3.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 575.4 and below same could see a test of 563.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 602.2, a move above could see prices testing 616.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 563.3-616.9.
* Natural gas dropped on a smaller-than-expected draw in inventories last week
* Further doubts were looming whether or not Freeport LNG will be able to restart operations next month.
* Data showed US utilities pulled 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage


Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.25% at 677.3 as China's supportive measures for its property sector, a weaker U.S. dollar and the prospect of the Federal Reserve slowing its pace of interest rate hikes boost sentiment. Metals are higher from Chinese bank's pledge for loans and interest-free terms to other banks for re-lending to developers. The Fed minutes of its latest meeting showed a "substantial majority" of policymakers agreed it would "likely soon be appropriate" to slow the pace of interest rate hikes. China's copper demand to rise strongly in 2023, helped by the production of electric vehicles and rising investment in renewable power projects. The Chinese copper scrap market is expected to remain tight as the pandemic and global economic downturn worsen an already limited supply caused by global trade restrictions. China, the world's biggest copper consumer, is seen consuming more than 3.8 million tonnes of copper scrap this year, up 4% annually. Smelter executives on Thursday called on miners to pay higher treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) to incentivise them to expand capacity and ensure long-term copper supply to the market. Copper demand from the renewable energy and electric vehicles sectors is expected to rise sharply amid the global energy transition, potentially creating a shortage of copper towards the end of the decade. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 12.07% to settle at 4876 while prices are up 1.7 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 675.2 and below same could see a test of 672.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 680.7, a move above could see prices testing 683.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 672.9-683.9.
* Copper prices rose amid China's supportive measures for its property sector, a weaker U.S. dollar.
* Metals are higher from Chinese bank's pledge for loans and interest-free terms to other banks for re-lending to developers.
* China's copper demand to rise strongly in 2023, helped by the production of electric vehicles and rising investment in renewable power projects.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.4% at 262.8 with rising COVID-19 cases in the world's top metal consumer China weighing on sentiment, while investors awaited more clues on U.S. interest rates ahead of the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting. Risk assets had been under pressure as China is battling numerous COVID flare-ups, fanning concerns about the impact on global growth due to the world's second-largest economy's tightening curbs. Data showed that the China refined zinc output in October fell slightly short of expectation and stood at 514,100 mt, up 2.02% or 10,200 mt MoM and up 14,800 mt or 2.96% YoY. From January to October 2022, the combined refined zinc output stood at 4.93 million mt, a decrease of 2.48% year-on-year. Survey showed that China refined zinc output in October gained palpably on a monthly basis, but it was still slightly less than expected. Reasons for the increase in output vary. Large smelters in Hunan ramped up the production, and some small smelters in Hunan and Guangxi resumed normal production; the overall output in Yunnan climbed thanks to the production uplift in some large smelters in spite of power rationing; a large smelter in Inner Mongolia ramped up the output after digesting the excessive zinc sheet arising from previous production reduction. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 29.09% to settle at 2893 while prices are down -1.05 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 261.7 and below same could see a test of 260.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 264.9, a move above could see prices testing 266.9.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 260.5-266.9.
* Zinc dropped with rising COVID-19 cases in China weighing on sentiment
* Risk assets had been under pressure as China is battling numerous COVID flare-ups, fanning concerns about the impact on global growth
* Data showed that the China refined zinc output in October fell slightly short of expectation and stood at 514,100 mt, up 2.02%



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.93% at 207.1 as signs of weaker demand and a rebound for the US dollar outweighed looming concerns of supply shortages. Global primary aluminium output in October rose 3.1% year on year to 5.85 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.475 million tonnes, the IAI said. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell by 0.7% to 377,200 tonnes at the end of October from 379,700 tonnes at the end of September. China's aluminium imports in October fell 33.9% from a year earlier due to persistently weak demand and increases in domestic supply. The country brought in 196,460 tonnes, including primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium, last month, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. The drop in imports comes after a ramp-up in domestic production this year. Output in October grew for an eighth consecutive month to 3.45 million tonnes. For the first 10 months of the year, China produced 33.33 million tonnes, up 3.3% from the corresponding period in 2021. Demand for the light metal used in the transportation, construction and packaging sectors however has remained weak due to China's strict COVID curbs. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.91% to settle at 4811 while prices are down -1.95 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 205.6 and below same could see a test of 203.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 209.8, a move above could see prices testing 212.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 203.9-212.3.
* Aluminum dropped as signs of weaker demand and a rebound for the US dollar outweighed looming concerns of supply shortages.
* Global aluminium output rises 3.1% y/y in October – IAI
* Japan aluminium stocks down marginally m/m in October


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.31% at 957.3 as mentha exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent at 1,107.20 tonnes as compared to 1,285.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 238.04 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 7.30%. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 250.97 tonnes in September 2021 showing a drop of 12.07%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -0.2 Rupees to end at 1098.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 22.12% to settle at 889 while prices are down -3 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 953.3 and below same could see a test of 949.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 960.7, a move above could see prices testing 964.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 949.2-964.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -0.2 Rupees to end at 1098.2 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent
* In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported showing a drop of 7.30%.
*However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 1.07% at 7358 as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67%. Turmeric exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has rose by 14.65 percent at 88,384.27 tonnes as compared to 77,091.52 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,147.89 tonnes in August 2022 showing a rise of 15.16%. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,598.15 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 11.05%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7473.1 Rupees dropped -15.05 Rupees.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.27% to settle at 9275 while prices are up 78 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7274 and below same could see a test of 7190 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7418, a move above could see prices testing 7478.

Trading Ideas:
*Turmeric trading range for the day is 7190-7478.
* Turmeric prices gained as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7473.1 Rupees dropped -15.05 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -1.51% at 24075 as current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. As per Gujarat Government, around 77,037 hectares of sowing has been completed as on 21st November 2022 in Jeera key growing regions in Gujarat and according to this data, normal area (three years average) in Gujarat likely to be around 421,457 hectares. Jeera exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has dropped by 21.28 percent at 1,09,587.28 tonnes as compared to 1,39,218.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes jeera was exported as against 24,448.33 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 26.04%. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,828.07 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 21.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -38.7 Rupees to end at 24227.35 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.7% to settle at 6054 while prices are down -370 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 23865 and below same could see a test of 23660 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24370, a move above could see prices testing 24670.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23660-24670.
* Jeera prices dropped as current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -38.7 Rupees to end at 24227.35 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled up by 2.56% at 31660 as markets were receiving nearly a third lower in supplies than normal. Cotton supply is expected to remain around 38.7 million bales which was 39.2 million bales during 2021-22. Export demand from neighboring countries and winter season demand in domestic market is increased usually in Oct-Dec. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton gained by 150 Rupees to end at 32370 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 5.03% to settle at 2735 while prices are up 790 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 31110 and below same could see a test of 30560 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31950, a move above could see prices testing 32240.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 30560-32240.
* Cotton gained as markets were receiving nearly a third lower in supplies than normal.
* Cotton supply is expected to remain around 38.7 million bales which was 39.2 million bales during 2021-22.
* Data from CFTC showed that speculators cut their net short position on cotton futures
* In spot market, Cotton gained  by 150 Rupees to end at 32370 Rupees.

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