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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.31% at 52451 as investors cautiously awaited the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes that could guide the outlook for future US rate hikes. Traders have been parsing through remarks from Fed officials who have largely maintained a strong commitment to bring down inflation, but voiced support for a slower pace of interest rate hikes if warranted. In the latest commentary, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly warned against overtightening, while Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she wants to see inflation come down sustainably before supporting a pause. Physical gold demand in Asia stayed soft, with premiums in top hub China easing further as fresh COVID-19 restrictions dimmed activity while higher domestic prices put off most buyers in India. Premiums in China eased to $10-15 an ounce over benchmark spot prices from last week's $8-$25. The premiums had been spiking since September, reaching as high as $45 at one point, but have eased this month. China's central bank controls how much gold enters the country via quotas to commercial banks. Meanwhile in India, dealers offered discounts of up to $21 an ounce over official domestic prices compared with last week's $26 discounts. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -6.78% to settle at 4056 while prices are up 162 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 52187 and below same could see a test of 51924 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 52594, a move above could see prices testing 52738.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 51924-52738.
* Gold steadied as investors cautiously awaited the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes that could guide the outlook for future US rate hikes.
* Fed’s Mester said she wants to see inflation come down sustainably before supporting a pause.
* Physical gold demand in Asia stayed soft, with premiums in top hub China easing further as fresh COVID-19 restrictions dimmed activity

Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 1.06% at 61630 with support from a slight retreat in the dollar ahead of the FOMC minutes release. Besides supporting bullion, hesitancy by the Fed to maintain the pace of its sharp tightening cycle would lift prices due to higher demand for industrial silver usage through electrical conductors. Signs of low supply also lifted prices, as inventories at New York’s COMEX fell 70% in the last 18 months to just over 1 million tonnes. Also, during the period, stocks at the London Bullion Market Association fell for the 10th straight month to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said it is premature and nothing is off the table regarding the size of the rate hike at the next policy meeting in December. Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester said she doesn't see any pause in the rate hike cycle yet, while Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he favors slowing the pace of interest rate increases, with no more than 1 percentage point more of hikes. The OECD forecast global growth to ease to 2.2% next year from 3.1% in 2022. In 2024, growth is projected to be 2.7%, helped by initial steps to ease policy interest rates. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.93% to settle at 10395 while prices are up 644 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 61049 and below same could see a test of 60469 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 62015, a move above could see prices testing 62401.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 60469-62401.
* Silver rose with support from a slight retreat in the dollar ahead of the FOMC minutes release.
* Signs of low supply also lifted prices, as inventories at New York’s COMEX fell 70% in the last 18 months to just over 1 million tonnes.
* Stocks at the London Bullion Market Association fell for the 10th straight month to a record-low 27.1 thousand tonnes.


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled down by -4.93% at 6389 as the Group of Seven (G7) nations looked at a price cap on Russian oil above where the crude grade is currently trading. G7 nations are looking at a price cap on Russian seaborne oil in the range of $65-70/bbl, according to a European official. The news added to demand concerns relating to top crude oil importer China, which has been grappling with a surge in COVID-19 cases, with Shanghai tightening rules. Also adding pressure was an OECD economic outlook that sees a deceleration in global economic expansion next year. Crude oil inventories sagged by another 4.2 million barrels, American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed, after dropping 5.8 million barrels in the week prior. The API reported a draw in gasoline inventories this week of 400,000 barrels for the week ending November 18, after the previous week’s 1.690 million-barrel build. Distillate stocks saw a build this week of 1.1 million barrels, on top of last week’s 850,000-barrel increase. Cushing inventories fell 1.4 million barrels in the week to Nov 18, on top of last week’s reported decrease of 842,000 barrels. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 69.39% to settle at 16726 while prices are down -331 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6242 and below same could see a test of 6094 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6636, a move above could see prices testing 6882.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6094-6882.
* Crudeoil dropped as the Group of Seven (G7) nations looked at a price cap on Russian oil above where the crude grade is currently trading.
* G7 nations are looking at a price cap on Russian seaborne oil in the range of $65-70/bbl, according to a European official.
* Pressure also seen amid demand concerns relating to China, which has been grappling with a surge in COVID-19 cases, with Shanghai tightening rules.

Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 7.89% at 590.7 as supply concerns reemerged again. Gazprom warned it will curb gas traveling through Ukraine from November 28th, the last remaining pipeline still bringing Russian gas to western Europe. The transit cut will come at a time when temperatures are set to dip below average. The Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced offline in June following a fire, expects to begin bringing operations back online in mid-December, at the same time as Europe is clamoring for US exports after Russia threatened to cut supplies even further. On top of that, workers at the largest US rail union voted against a tentative contract deal reached in September, raising the possibility of a year-end strike that could disrupt coal deliveries and force power generators to burn more gas. A rail strike would disrupt shipments of coal to utilities, forcing power generators to burn more gas to produce electricity. Projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would drop from 126.3 bcfd this week to 113.7 bcfd next week. The forecasts for next week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -40.11% to settle at 2895 while prices are up 43.2 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 564.5 and below same could see a test of 538.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 617, a move above could see prices testing 643.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 538.2-643.2.
* Natural gas rose as supply concerns reemerged again
* Gazprom warned it will curb gas traveling through Ukraine from November 28th
* Workers at the largest US rail union voted against a tentative contract deal reached in September, raising the possibility of a year-end strike



Copper

Copper yesterday settled flat at 675.6 as rising COVID-19 cases in China tempered hopes that demand in the world's biggest metals consumer will soon improve. There were hopes that China will ease its economically damaging zero-COVID policy and U.S. interest rates will rise less than feared. Large cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have tightened prevention measures, potentially stifling economic activity. Chinese stock markets rose, helped by measures to support the embattled property market. Copper demand in China, the world's top consumer of the metal, will grow faster in 2023, thanks to rising investment in renewable power projects and production of electric vehicles while the country's expected reopening is seen boosting growth. China's stringent measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus pandemic as well as a deepening slump in the country's huge real estate sector have weighed on refined copper demand in 2022. But China is expected to ease some COVID-19 curbs next year, offering some respite to the world's second-largest economy. Copper demand from the auto sector is set to rise by as much as 160,000 tonnes next year, said Zuo, after demand growth of between 100,000 and 120,000 tonnes in 2022. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 36.65% to settle at 4351 while prices are up 0.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 671 and below same could see a test of 666.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 680.7, a move above could see prices testing 685.7.

Trading Ideas:
*Copper trading range for the day is 666.3-685.7.
* Copper prices settled flat as rising COVID-19 cases in China tempered hopes that demand in the world's biggest metals consumer will soon improve.
* There were hopes that China will ease its economically damaging zero-COVID policy and U.S. interest rates will rise less than feared.
* China copper demand to rise on surging EV output, power investment


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled flat at 263.85 with rising COVID-19 cases in the world's top metal consumer China weighing on sentiment, while investors awaited more clues on U.S. interest rates ahead of the minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting. Risk assets had been under pressure as China is battling numerous COVID flare-ups, fanning concerns about the impact on global growth due to the world's second-largest economy's tightening curbs. Data showed that the China refined zinc output in October fell slightly short of expectation and stood at 514,100 mt, up 2.02% or 10,200 mt MoM and up 14,800 mt or 2.96% YoY. From January to October 2022, the combined refined zinc output stood at 4.93 million mt, a decrease of 2.48% year-on-year. Survey showed that China refined zinc output in October gained palpably on a monthly basis, but it was still slightly less than expected. Reasons for the increase in output vary. Large smelters in Hunan ramped up the production, and some small smelters in Hunan and Guangxi resumed normal production; the overall output in Yunnan climbed thanks to the production uplift in some large smelters in spite of power rationing; a large smelter in Inner Mongolia ramped up the output after digesting the excessive zinc sheet arising from previous production reduction. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 25.62% to settle at 2241 while prices are up 0.4 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 262.5 and below same could see a test of 260.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 265.3, a move above could see prices testing 266.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 260.9-266.5.
* Zinc remained in range with rising COVID-19 cases in China weighing on sentiment
* Risk assets had been under pressure as China is battling numerous COVID flare-ups, fanning concerns about the impact on global growth
* Data showed that the China refined zinc output in October fell slightly short of expectation and stood at 514,100 mt, up 2.02%


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -1.53% at 209.05 as signs of weaker demand and a rebound for the US dollar outweighed looming concerns of supply shortages. Global primary aluminium output in October rose 3.1% year on year to 5.85 million tonnes, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. Estimated Chinese production was 3.475 million tonnes, the IAI said. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell by 0.7% to 377,200 tonnes at the end of October from 379,700 tonnes at the end of September. China's aluminium imports in October fell 33.9% from a year earlier due to persistently weak demand and increases in domestic supply. The country brought in 196,460 tonnes, including primary metal and unwrought, alloyed aluminium, last month, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. The drop in imports comes after a ramp-up in domestic production this year. Output in October grew for an eighth consecutive month to 3.45 million tonnes. For the first 10 months of the year, China produced 33.33 million tonnes, up 3.3% from the corresponding period in 2021. Demand for the light metal used in the transportation, construction and packaging sectors however has remained weak due to China's strict COVID curbs. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 9.92% to settle at 4586 while prices are down -3.25 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 207.8 and below same could see a test of 206.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 211.7, a move above could see prices testing 214.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 206.4-214.2.
* Aluminum dropped as signs of weaker demand and a rebound for the US dollar outweighed looming concerns of supply shortages.
* Global aluminium output rises 3.1% y/y in October – IAI
* Japan aluminium stocks down marginally m/m in October


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.68% at 960.3 as mentha exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent at 1,107.20 tonnes as compared to 1,285.12 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 238.04 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 7.30%. In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 250.97 tonnes in September 2021 showing a drop of 12.07%. Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted. Support also seen amid low production this season and improving demand post-pandemic. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Spot market, support seen after IMD issues Yellow Alert in key sowing area ; light-moderate rain to continue till Sept 4 impacting arrival in the mandi. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 20.4 Rupees to end at 1118.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 23.81% to settle at 728 while prices are down -6.6 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 956.1 and below same could see a test of 951.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 966.3, a move above could see prices testing 972.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 951.8-972.2.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 20.4 Rupees to end at 1118.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil prices dropped as exports during Apr-Sept 2022 has dropped by 13.84 percent
* In the month of September 2022 around 220.67 tonnes Mentha was exported showing a drop of 7.30%.
* However, Synthetic Mentha supply remains uninterrupted.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled up by 0.66% at 7280 as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops. Arrivals has been dropped by 26% Y-o-Y due to lower production as about 11248 tonnes of turmeric arrived at APMC mandies across India in Sep’22 compared to 15758 tonnes of previous year for corresponding month. As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, Turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares as compared to last year same period 19,376 hectares, down by 12.67%. Turmeric exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has rose by 14.65 percent at 88,384.27 tonnes as compared to 77,091.52 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 12,147.89 tonnes in August 2022 showing a rise of 15.16%. In the month of September 2022 around 13,990.65 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,598.15 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 11.05%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7488.15 Rupees gained 20.25 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.16% to settle at 9490 while prices are up 48 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7212 and below same could see a test of 7146 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7322, a move above could see prices testing 7366.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7146-7366.
* Turmeric prices gained as unseasonal rains in some parts of the country have affected the crops
* As per Andhra Pradesh agricultural department, turmeric sowing activity completed around 16,921 hectares, down by 12.67% till date from last year.
* Marathwada region has been serving as a round-the-year supply centre for Turmeric since past couple of years.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7488.15 Rupees gained 20.25 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.14% at 24445 as current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions. As per Gujarat Government, around 77,037 hectares of sowing has been completed as on 21st November 2022 in Jeera key growing regions in Gujarat and according to this data, normal area (three years average) in Gujarat likely to be around 421,457 hectares. Jeera exports during Apr- Sept 2022 has dropped by 21.28 percent at 1,09,587.28 tonnes as compared to 1,39,218.38 tonnes exported during Apr- Sept 2021. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes jeera was exported as against 24,448.33 tonnes in August 2022 showing a drop of 26.04%. In the month of September 2022 around 18,081.78 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,828.07 tonnes in September 2021 showing a rise of 21.94%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -130.9 Rupees to end at 24385.2 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.72% to settle at 6159 while prices are down -35 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 24215 and below same could see a test of 23990 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 24600, a move above could see prices testing 24760.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 23990-24760.
* Jeera prices dropped as current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* Current year sowing area likely to increase in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions.
* All-India Jeera production is expected to fall in the Marketing year 2022-23 by around 33% to 3 lakh tonnes on y-o-y basis due to lower sowings.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -130.9 Rupees to end at 24385.2 Rupees per 100 kg.

Cotton

Cotton yesterday settled down by -0.06% at 30870 as India’s domestic cotton demand for the 2022-23 season up to September is estimated to be lower by about 18 lakh bales (170 kg each) at 300 lakh bales or nearly 6 per cent less than last year’s 318 lakh bales, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has estimated. The association’s Cotton Crop Committee meeting attributed the decline in domestic consumption to a reduction in operations of mills due to slack demand for yarn and cloth. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. India is likely to produce 34.4 million bales of cotton in the 2022/23 season that started on Oct. 1, up 12% from a year ago after farmers expanded the crop area. India’s cotton output for the season ended September 30, 2022, fell to 307.5 lakh bales (against 360.13 lakh bales estimated at the beginning of the season in October last year. This is the lowest since 2007-08, when the production was 307 lakh bales. WASDE report said world trade is projected to be nearly 1 million bales lower from September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam. The agency lowered its U.S. exports forecast by 100,000 bales to 12.5 million bales, while also cutting export estimates for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece and Mexico. "In the 2022/23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher," the USDA said. In spot market, Cotton dropped by -420 Rupees to end at 31850 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.87% to settle at 2604 while prices are down -20 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 30630 and below same could see a test of 30390 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 31090, a move above could see prices testing 31310.

Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 30390-31310.
* Cotton dropped as India’s domestic cotton demand set to dip 6% in 2022-23
* Spinning mills operated at 40-60 per cent capacity in the first quarter, which may cause cotton consumption to drop
* Data from CFTC showed that speculators cut their net short position on cotton futures
* In spot market, Cotton dropped  by -420 Rupees to end at 31850 Rupees.

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