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Gold

Gold yesterday settled up by 0.53% at 57257 as the dollar turned a bit weak amid signs inflation is slowing down. Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the disinflationary process has begun, but it has a long way to go and these are the very early stages. The Chair added that if the strong jobs market persists additional interest rate hikes will be needed and the terminal level of the Fed funds may get higher than previously expected. Interest-rate futures traders moved after Friday's job report to price in a further interest-rate increase in May, which would bring the policy rate to the 5%-5.25% range, and are now expecting eventual Fed rate cuts to start in November versus in September previously. Data showed U.S. services industry activity rebounded strongly in January, with new orders recovering and prices paid by businesses for materials continuing to rise at a moderate pace. Physical gold demand in India ticked up last week, as jewellers resumed purchases after staying away for a couple of weeks hoping for an import duty cut in the government budget amid the wedding season. Venezuela's central bank's gold reserves dropped 13% to a new 50-year low last year, falling 10 tonnes in 2022. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.34% to settle at 16808 while prices are up 302 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 57012 and below same could see a test of 56766 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 57442, a move above could see prices testing 57626.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 56766-57626.
* Gold prices moved higher as the dollar turned a bit weak amid signs inflation is slowing down.
* Powell says interest rates are likely to rise further
* Data showed U.S. job growth accelerated sharply last month


Silver

Silver yesterday settled up by 0.19% at 67529 amid concerns that the Federal Reserve might keep hiking interest rates to cool inflation. The dollar index held near a three-week high as a blockbuster U.S. jobs report and upbeat service sector data revived worries about the interest-rate outlook. Non-farm payroll employment soared by 517,000 jobs in January while economists had expected an increase of 185,000 jobs. The jobless rate slipped to a multi-decade low of 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent. U.S. service industries returned to growth in January but there were signs that pricing pressures may be easing. Also boosting the safe-haven dollar was escalating tensions between the United States and China. The Biden administration decided to postpone Secretary of State Antony Blinken's upcoming trip to China in response to the Pentagon's discovery of an alleged Chinese spy balloon, that was later shot down. At the same, recession concerns pressured prices further, as investors worried about low demand for the metal as an industrial input for goods with high electricity conduction needs, which was reflected in its sharp underperformance to gold in January. Still, projections of weak supply limited the fall, as COMEX inventories remained under pressure and LBMA stockpiles plunged amid outflows to India. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.23% to settle at 14175 while prices are up 130 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 67173 and below same could see a test of 66816 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 67866, a move above could see prices testing 68202.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 66816-68202.
* Silver remained in range amid concerns that the Federal Reserve might keep hiking interest rates to cool inflation.
* Dollar index held near a three-week high after a blockbuster U.S. jobs report and upbeat service sector data
* Non-farm payroll employment soared by 517,000 jobs in January


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 3.78% at 6363 as the IEA optimism that economic recovery in China will help to boost demand in the global markets. Prices rose on supply concerns after an earthquake shuttered a major export terminal in Turkey with a capacity of 1 million barrels per day. The BTC terminal, which exports Azeri crude oil to international markets, will be closed on Feb. 6-8. IEA projected global demand for crude in 2023 will be a record 101.7 million barrels per day, up by nearly two percent compared to 2022. Crude oil could soon swing into a deficit that will make next year a difficult one, Goldman Sachs said, as spare production capacity dwindles and underinvestment threatens future supply. Price caps on Russian products took effect with Group of Seven nations, the European Union and Australia agreeing on limits of $100 a barrel on diesel and $45 a barrel for products that trade at a discount. OPEC's oil output fell in January, as Iraqi exports dropped and Nigerian output did not recover, with the 10 OPEC members pumping 920,000 bpd below OPEC+ targeted volumes. The shortfall was bigger than the 780,000 bpd deficit in December. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -24.62% to settle at 6713 while prices are up 232 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6227 and below same could see a test of 6091 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6441, a move above could see prices testing 6519.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6091-6519.
* Crude oil prices gained as the IEA optimism that economic recovery in China will help to boost demand in the global markets.
* Prices rose on supply concerns after an earthquake shuttered a major export terminal in Turkey with a capacity of 1 million barrels per day.
* IEA projected global demand for crude in 2023 will be a record 101.7 million barrels per day, up by nearly two percent compared to 2022.


Natural gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled up by 5.53% at 212 as output remains lower than last month after extreme cold last week froze oil and gas wells in several producing basins. Also supporting prices was a growing belief that Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas was on track to start pulling in a lot more gas in coming weeks once it starts producing liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export. But Freeport was on track to receive no natural gas from pipelines after taking in small amounts over the past 12 days, according to Refinitiv data. The small gas price rise came despite forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Last week’s EIA weekly nat gas storage report printed a draw of -151 Bcf, bullish to survey averages of -142-144 Bcf and moderately smaller than the 5-year average draw of -181 Bcf. The build decreased supplies from 2,734 to 2,583 and increased surpluses from +128 Bcf to +163 Bcf. There was also a revision to last week’s number that lightened the draw from -91 Bcf to -86 Bcf. This week’s EIA report print a larger draw next week due to cold temperatures over much of the US this past week. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -9.99% to settle at 36859 while prices are up 11.1 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 204.8 and below same could see a test of 197.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 217.2, a move above could see prices testing 222.4.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 197.6-222.4.
* Natural gas rose as output remains lower than last month after extreme cold last week froze oil and gas wells in several producing basins.
* Also supporting prices was a growing belief that Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas was on track to start pulling in a lot more gas in coming weeks
* Freeport was on track to receive no natural gas from pipelines after taking in small amounts over the past 12 days, according to Refinitiv data.



Copper

Copper yesterday settled up by 0.71% at 775.75 China's foreign exchange reserves rose to USD 3.184 trillion at the end of January 2023, up from USD 3.128 trillion in the previous month and above market expectations of USD 3.152 trillion. Glencore's copper production totalled 1.06 million mt in 2022, down 12% from the 1.20 million mt in 2021. Glencore said it will maintain the output guidance for copper in 2023. MMG recently announced that the total copper output (including copper content in copper cathode and copper concentrate) in 2022 stood at 305,053 mt, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. The decline is attributable to a broader impact of the community protests at Las Bambas mine. Chile, the world's top copper producer, saw exports of the red metal reach $2.98 billion in January, down 21.6% from a year earlier, the central bank. Global copper smelting activity in January rose to the highest levels in a year as plants in China boosted output, data from satellite surveillance of metal processing plants showed. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.68% to settle at 3849 while prices are up 5.45 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 768.6 and below same could see a test of 761.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 780.3, a move above could see prices testing 784.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 761.3-784.7.
* Copper gains amid lingering concerns about global supplies continued to play a crucial role in supporting the prices.
* Glencore's copper output in 2022 down 12% to 1.06 million mt
* MMG posts a 10% drop in copper output in 2022


Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled up by 2.31% at 284 as supported after update Glencore's zinc production in 2022 was 938,500 mt, down 16% from 1.12 million mt in 2021. Investors reassessed their expectations of the speed and scale of any Chinese demand recovery after the country removed its strict COVID-19 restrictions. The global zinc market deficit climbed to 119,500 tonnes in November from a revised deficit of 39,400 tonnes a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. Previously, the ILZSG had reported a deficit of 72,400 tonnes in October. During the first 11 months of 2022, ILZSG data showed a deficit of 228,000 tonnes versus a deficit of 163,000 tonnes in the same period of 2021. China's foreign exchange reserves rose to USD 3.184 trillion at the end of January 2023, up from USD 3.128 trillion in the previous month and above market expectations of USD 3.152 trillion. The country's foreign exchange reserves were the largest since March last year as the dollar fell against other major currencies, amid expectations the US Federal Reserve will reduce the pace of policy tightening. Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -0.04% to settle at 2386 while prices are up 6.4 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 276.8 and below same could see a test of 269.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 287.9, a move above could see prices testing 291.8.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 269.6-291.8.
* Zinc gains as supported after update Glencore's zinc production in 2022 was 938,500 mt, down 16% from 1.12 million mt in 2021.
* Investors reassessed their expectations of the speed and scale of any Chinese demand recovery after the country removed its strict COVID-19 restrictions
* China's foreign exchange reserves rose to USD 3.184 trillion at the end of January 2023, up from USD 3.128 trillion in the previous month



Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled remain unchangeby 0% at 221.55 as soft global demand weighed on sentiment despite the latest supply disruptions. Aluminium ingot social inventory stood at 1.05 million mt as of Thursday February 2, up 303,000 mt from before the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday January 20 and 61,000 mt from this Monday January 30. The Caixin China General Services PMI increased to 52.9 in January 2023 from 48.0 in December. This was the first expansion in the service sector since last August supported by a rebound in business activity and new work, amid lifting Covid-zero policies and a recovery in customer demand. Both activity and new work increased for the first time in 5 months. The modest upturn in new work was supported by higher customer numbers, particularly with the relaxation of rules around travel, but also improved foreign demand. The premiums for aluminium shipments to Japanese buyers for January to March were set at $85-$86 a tonne, down 13%-14% from the previous quarter, reflecting slack demand and high stocks. The figures are lower than the $99 per tonne paid in the October-December quarter and mark a fifth consecutive quarterly decline and the lowest premium since the July-September quarter of 2020. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.76% to settle at 3674 while prices are remain unchanged 0 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 219.7 and below same could see a test of 217.7 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 223.3, a move above could see prices testing 224.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 217.7-224.9.
* Aluminum settled flat as soft global demand weighed on sentiment despite the latest supply disruptions.
* Aluminium ingot social inventory stood at 1.05 million mt as of Thursday February 2, up 303,000 mt
* The Caixin China General Composite PMI climbed to 51.1 in January 2023 from 48.3 in the previous month.


Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled down by -0.07% at 1007.3 on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China. Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes as compared to 1,813.38 tonnes exported during Apr- 2022 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes Mentha was exported as against 141.82 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 66.56%. In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021 showing a drop of 5.23%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -6.6 Rupees to end at 1176.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -2.81% to settle at 899 while prices are down -0.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 1004.5 and below same could see a test of 1001.8 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1011.1, a move above could see prices testing 1015.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1001.8-1015.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped  by -6.6 Rupees to end at 1176.6 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained on improving export demand especially from China.
* Mentha exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 18.10 percent at 1,485.25 tonnes
* In the month of November 2022 around 236.22 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 249.26 tonnes in November 2021


Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.33% at 7276 in view of inferior quality of arrivals and fears of a higher crop. Prices are also lower as inventories with users and stockists are high. The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop. Yield is high in some areas and low in some areas, though Actually, we are wondering what the actual production could be in Maharashtra since the area under the crop has gone up rapidly this year. Turmeric exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has rose by 9.90 percent at 1,11,968.51 tonnes as compared to 1,01,882.03 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes turmeric was exported as against 11,178.11 tonnes in October 2022 showing a rise of 10.92%. In the month of November 2022 around 12,398.63 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 12,255.64tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 1.17%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. The Spices Board has pegged turmeric production at 1.33 mln tn, up 18.4% on year. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7209.95 Rupees dropped -6.45 Rupees.Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.49% to settle at 13295 while prices are down -24 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7206 and below same could see a test of 7134 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7394, a move above could see prices testing 7510.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 7134-7510.
* Turmeric dropped in view of inferior quality of arrivals and fears of a higher crop.
* Prices are also lower as inventories with users and stockists are high.
* The crop is good this season despite some projection of a lower crop.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 7209.95 Rupees dropped -6.45 Rupees.


Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 0.44% at 32760 on amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties. Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected. Sowing In Gujarat, dropped by nearly -8% with 274,995.00 hectares against sown area of 2021 which was 300,401.00 hectares. Prices gained to all time high amid higher demand for the fresh crop and supply tightness in the physical market. Good demand expected from China in December-January and Ramzan demand during January-February from gulf & other countries. Jeera exports during Apr-Nov 2022 has dropped by 17.40 percent at 133,250.24 tonnes as compared to 161,317.94 tonnes exported during Apr-Nov 2021. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes jeera was exported as against 12,427.86 tonnes in October 2022 showing a drop of 9.60%. In the month of November 2022 around 11,235.11 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 10,838.83 tonnes in November 2021 showing a rise of 3.66%. Production of spices in India is likely to have declined 1.5% on year to 10.9 mln tn in 2021-22 (Jul-Jun), according to data from Spices Board India. The country had produced 11.0 mln tn of spices in the previous year. Jeera production was seen at 725,651 tn, down 8.8% on year due to lower acreage in Rajasthan and Gujarat, the key producer, according to data from Spices Board India. According to fourth advanced estimates by Gujarat government, jeera production is seen fall by 44.5 per cent to 221500 tonnes in 2021-22 on yoy basis. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -557.45 Rupees to end at 32616.2 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -1.26% to settle at 4224 while prices are up 145 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 32250 and below same could see a test of 31735 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 33090, a move above could see prices testing 33415.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 31735-33415.
* Jeera prices gained amid reduced sowing in Gujarat, coupled with a tight supply, and climatic uncertainties.
* Projections of lower carryover stock and fears of sowing in key growing regions of Gujarat being affected.
* Sowing in Gujarat, dropped by nearly -10% with 275,832.00 hectares against sown area of 2021-22 which was 307,135.00 hectares.
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -557.45 Rupees to end at 32616.2 Rupees per 100 kg.

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