Turmeric trading range for the day is 6930-7666 - Kedia Advisory
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Gold
Gold yesterday settled up by 0.23% at 47948 as the dollar faltered and expectations firmed that a massive U.S. fiscal stimulus to revive the world's largest economy will soon be passed. Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package is expected to pass through Congress before March 15 even without Republican support. House Democrats released a draft of stimulus plan on Monday evening, which includes $1,400 stimulus checks, $400 federal unemployment benefits, funding to state and local governments and vaccine distribution among other provisions. Democrats are rushing to put the stimulus plan for a floor vote by the end of the month. Thereafter, the bill would go to the Senate for approval. Uncertainty over U.S. economic recovery and the prevalent risk-on environment on the back of vaccine rollouts also undermined the dollar's relative safe-haven status. Physical gold demand picked up in China ahead of the Lunar New Year festival, while Indian retail buyers cheered a sharp dip in domestic rates. Singapore dealers, meanwhile, flagged a possible supply crunch fuelled by a surge in interest for silver. Chinese dealers charged premiums of $0.50-$5 an ounce over benchmark spot gold prices. Indian premiums pushed to a six-month peak of up to $6 an ounce over official domestic prices. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.71% to settled at 12315 while prices up 109 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 47739 and below same could see a test of 47531 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 48195, a move above could see prices testing 48443.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 47531-48443.
* Gold prices rose as the dollar faltered and expectations firmed that a massive U.S. fiscal stimulus to revive the world's largest economy will soon be passed.
* Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package is expected to pass through Congress before March 15 even without Republican support.
* 10-year Treasury yields hover near highest since March
Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -0.55% at 69696 paring gains seen earlier in response to a weaker dollar and expectations of substantial U.S. fiscal stimulus. U.S. lawmakers have a budget outline to help to push U.S. President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package through Congress without Republican support and the legislation is predicted to pass before March 15. On investors' radar was Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech before a virtual Economic Club of New York event on Wednesday. In 2020, global silver production declined by 6% to 25,000 tonnes. Mexico was the largest silver producing country in 2020. According to the preliminary data released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), global mine silver output was 25,000 tonnes in 2020, a 6% decline compared to 2019 (26,500 tonnes). This drop in silver production was primarily associated with temporary shutdowns of mines in China, Mexico and Peru in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Australia's Perth Mint said its January silver coin sales jumped 23.5% from the previous month, boosted by a robust demand for the white metal spurred by a social media-led buying spree that commenced towards the end of the month. The refiner sold more than 1.1 million troy ounces of silver last month, its highest since October. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -2.73% to settled at 13116 while prices down -388 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 68879 and below same could see a test of 68061 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 70636, a move above could see prices testing 71575.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 68061-71575.
* Silver prices dropped paring gains seen earlier in response to a weaker dollar and expectations of substantial U.S. fiscal stimulus
* U.S. lawmakers have a budget outline to help to push U.S. President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package
* Investors eye Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday
Crude oil
Crude oil yesterday settled up by 0.61% at 4257 as prices rallied to 13 month high amid supply cuts by major producers and optimism over fuel demand recovery support energy markets. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, are tightening supplies and balancing global markets. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies agreed to extend production cuts till March. Saudi Arabia's decision to cut supply in February and March by 1 million barrels per day contributed as well to the bullish sentiment in the oil market. Investors are also pinning hopes on oil demand recovery when COVID-19 vaccines take effect. A weak dollar has also helped shored up prices of commodities. Adding to the upbeat mood is data showing a fall in new infections rates and signs of progress in U.S. stimulus talks. A weak U.S. jobs report released on Friday also boosted hopes of further stimulus measures. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to February 2, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. The speculator group raise its combined futures and options position in New York and London by 6,656 contracts to 354,149 during the period. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 10.35% to settled at 3529 while prices up 26 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 4198 and below same could see a test of 4140 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4296, a move above could see prices testing 4336.
Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 4140-4336.
* Crude oil prices rallied to 13 month high amid supply cuts by major producers and optimism over fuel demand recovery.
* Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, are tightening supplies and balancing global markets.
* Investors are also pinning hopes on oil demand recovery when COVID-19 vaccines take effect.
Nat.Gas
Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -2.61% at 205.1 on forecasts for less frigid weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected. That price decline came despite forecasts for temperatures to remain well below normal through at least late February, which will cause demand to break records next week. Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 90.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February. Traders noted that was down from 91.0 bcfd in January, due in part to the freezing of some wells. Output hit an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop from 90.6 bcfd on Monday to 89.5 bcfd on Tuesday, the lowest since mid-November, according to preliminary data from Refinitiv that will likely be revised later in the day. With much colder weather on the horizon, Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would jump from 133.0 bcfd this week to 148.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week, however, was lower than Refinitiv's 152.6-bcfd outlook on Monday. On a daily basis, total demand was expected to reach 159.0 bcfd on Feb. 15 and 156.2 bcfd on Feb. 16, both of which would top the current record high of 150.6 bcfd on Jan. 30, 2019, according to Refinitiv. Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.22% to settled at 6522 while prices down -5.5 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 201.3 and below same could see a test of 197.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 211.4, a move above could see prices testing 217.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 197.4-217.6.
* Natural gas slipped on forecasts for less frigid weather and lower heating demand next week than previously expected.
* Gas prices across North America soared as homes and businesses cranked up their heaters
* Speculators last week to boost their net long positions to their highest since October 2020 as they cut short positions to the lowest since April 2019.
Copper
Copper yesterday settled up by 1.52% at 629.55 as dollar languished near its lowest in a week as investors began entertaining doubts about the scale of a recent rally driven by expectations of a faster pandemic recovery in the United States than elsewhere. Instead of increasing, as they usually do in the run up to the Lunar New Year, copper stocks in China have dropped to near decade lows on robust demand from factories that are maintaining high operating rates over the usually slow holiday period. Peru's copper production plunged 12.5% to 2.15 million tonnes in 2020, the country's Energy and Mines Ministry said, driven down by coronavirus-related restrictions that hammered output in the world's second-largest producer of the red metal. Chile's copper exports surged 9.3% in January, the central bank said, as the world's top producer of the red metal saw the value of its shipments buoyed by a rising global copper price. The jump in copper shipments, a vital source of export revenue for the South American mining giant, contributed to a trade surplus of $1.740 billion in the first month of 2021, the bank said. Copper export revenue hit $2.733 billion, the bank said, while overall exports rose 8% to $7.038 billion. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 16.56% to settled at 4231 while prices up 9.4 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 623.8 and below same could see a test of 617.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 632.9, a move above could see prices testing 636.1.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 617.9-636.1.
* Copper prices advanced as dollar languished near its lowest in a week as investors began entertaining doubts about the scale of a recent rally
* Instead of increasing, copper stocks in China have dropped to near decade lows ahead of the Lunar New Year,
* Peru reports sharp drop in 2020 copper production due to pandemic
Zinc
Zinc yesterday settled up by 1.97% at 215 as support seen amid optimism over post-holiday consumption. However, trades were quiet in the spot market as most of the downstream plants have started the Chinese New Year holiday. Dollar languished near its lowest in a week as investors began entertaining doubts about the scale of a recent rally driven by expectations of a faster pandemic recovery in the United States than elsewhere. China's refined zinc output stood at 553,500 mt in December, falling 8,800 mt or down 1.57% on month and up 3.06% on year. In the full 2020, output totalled 6.1 million mt, up 4.44% from 2019. Zinc smelters produced 78,700 mt of zinc alloy in December, down 3.78% from the previous month. Survey showed that China's refined zinc output in December basically met expectations. Treatment charges (TCs) for domestic 50 grade zinc concentrate continued to decline in December. Domestic smelters rarely reduced production or turned into maintenance due to the shortage of zinc concentrate supply. China's refined zinc output in December fell from November mainly due to smelters’ routine maintenance and decreased zinc products of smelters led by weaker hot-galvanising alloy orders. In addition, Xinjiang Zijin Smelter was officially put into production on December 10, whose main product is #1 zinc due to equipment debugging. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -7.79% to settled at 1646 while prices up 4.15 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 212.2 and below same could see a test of 209.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 216.6, a move above could see prices testing 218.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 209.4-218.2.
* Zinc prices gained as support seen amid optimism over post-holiday consumption.
* However, trades were quiet in the spot market as most of the downstream plants have started the Chinese New Year holiday.
* China's refined zinc output stood at 553,500 mt in December, falling 8,800 mt or down 1.57% on month and up 3.06% on year.
Nickel
Nickel yesterday settled up by 1.1% at 1339 as US President Joe Biden and his Democratic allies in Congress cleared the path for their $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package as lawmakers approved a budget outline that will allow them to muscle the plan through without Republican support. Support also seen as downstream consumption of stainless steel was better than expected, supporting demand for nickel. As stainless steel prices increased, high-grade NPI prices also improved. In addition, consumption of nickel sulphate was strong as companies in the new energy sector brought forward their procurements. The report showed U.S. employment growth rebounded less than expected in January and job losses the prior month were deeper than initially thought, strengthening the argument for additional relief money to aid the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. China’s NPI output rose 3.27% from December to 38,600 mt Ni in January. This included 31,600 mt Ni of high-grade NPI, up 5.74% on the month, and 7,000 mt Ni of low-grade NPI, down 6.58% month on month. Strong demand from steel makers and sufficient raw materials inventories encouraged a large-scale NPI plant in east China to ramp up production, which contributed to the sharp rise in high-grade NPI output in January. China’s refined nickel output shrank 11.63% from December and 10.17% from a year earlier, to 13,000 mt in January. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 15.67% to settled at 1963 while prices up 14.6 rupees, now Nickel is getting support at 1331.2 and below same could see a test of 1323.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1344, a move above could see prices testing 1348.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Nickel trading range for the day is 1323.3-1348.9.
* Nickel gains as US President Joe Biden and his Democratic allies in Congress cleared the path for their $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package
* China’s refined nickel output shrank 11.63% on the month to 13,000 mt in January
* China’s NPI output rose 3.27% month on month to 38,600 mt Ni in January
Aluminium
Aluminium yesterday settled up by 1.31% at 166.9 as support seen after Rusal said demand for aluminum is extending its recovery so far this year despite a second wave of COVID-19 lockdowns. China's aluminium sector must shut dedicated power capacity equivalent to more than Germany's entire coal fleet over the next decade to keep Beijing on track to meet its carbon pledges. China accounts for more than half of global aluminium production, churning out 37 million tonnes in 2020. President Xi Jinping has vowed China will achieve peak emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. China’s primary aluminium output rose 8% year on year to 3.28 million mt in December (31 production days), survey showed. As of early January, there was 39.24 million mt among 44.2 million mt per year of existing primary aluminium capacity in operation, while operating rates across Chinese primary aluminium producers stood at 90.8%. The daily average primary aluminium output rose 300 mt from November to 105,800 mt in December, and Yunnan Shenhuo and Inner Mongolia Chuangyuan mainly contributed to the increase. The proportion of aluminum water came in at 66.6%, down 1.7% month on month. China’s alumina output stood at 5.96 million mt in December. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.08% to settled at 838 while prices up 2.15 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 165.5 and below same could see a test of 163.9 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 167.9, a move above could see prices testing 168.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 163.9-168.7.
* Aluminium gains as support seen after Rusal said demand for aluminum is extending its recovery so far this year.
* Rusal says Q1 2021 aluminium sales seen as strong as Q4 2020
* China’s primary aluminium output rose 8% year on year to 3.28 million mt in December
Mentha oil
Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.07% at 957 on level buying after prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India. The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market. The market has been faced with the lack of migrant labor, supply chain disruptions, shutdown of manufacturing activities, to name a few. Support also seen on the expectation that India’s fragrance industry which had been slow, now slowly gaining the positive momentum post the COVID unlock down. Headed towards a new decade, the fragrance industry has received a much needed boost with the acceptance of trendy dhoop sticks and dhoop cones which has seen an increased 20% demand day by day. The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030. Growing demand for aroma chemicals in the food & beverage and fragrance industry will underpin the growth of the market. Strict regulations in relation to artificial flavours are complimenting to the expansion of natural aroma chemicals in the food sector. Out of India's total mentha oil exports, nearly 55% goes to China while 16% goes to the US and around 5% goes to Singapore. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1091.8 Rupees per 360 kgs. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.27% to settled at 78 while prices up 0.7 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 953.1 and below same could see a test of 949.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 961.3, a move above could see prices testing 965.6.
Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 949.2-965.6.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil dropped by -1.9 Rupees to end at 1091.8 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Mentha oil gained on level buying after prices dropped due to demand from cosmetics and toiletries sector in India.
* The COVID-19 outbreak has had a huge impact on the worldwide economy, and has posed a similar influence on the aroma chemicals market.
* The global aroma chemicals market is likely to record a steady CAGR of about 4% during the assessment period of 2020-2030.
Soyabean
Soyabean yesterday settled up by 1.34% at 4778 as prices seen supported following improved demand from China, dry weather in Brazil, slower than expected pace of harvest in the US due to crop damage. Rising export demand for Soymeal and healthy domestic demand for Soy oil against lower mandi arrivals supported positive market sentiments. Arrival of new season crop has started. However, the pace of arrival is slower than expected. SOPA slashed down Soybean production estimates for 2020-21 season by 15% to 104.55 lakh tonnes from its first advance estimates of 122.47 lakh tonnes released on 21 August 2020 based on the survey conducted by their teams at various locations between 1-7 October 2020. Brazil's soybean harvest for the 2020-21 marketing year (February 2021 - January 2022) has made the slowest progress in a decade as unrelenting rains hampered field activities. Soybean farmers in the South American nation had been able to harvest only 1.9% of the projected acreage as of Jan. 28, compared with 8.9% last year. As per USDA report global soybean production is estimated to increase by 8% to 3621 lakh tonnes, while world soybean consumption is also expected to increase by 4% to 3697 Lakh tonnes. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4901 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 4.84% to settled at 211270 while prices up 63 rupees, now Soyabean is getting support at 4747 and below same could see a test of 4716 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4812, a move above could see prices testing 4846.
Trading Ideas:
* Soyabean trading range for the day is 4716-4846.
* Soyabean gained as prices seen supported following improved demand from and US crop damage
* Arrival of new season crop has started, however the pace of arrival is slower than expected.
* Brazilian soybean harvest at slowest pace in a decade on incessant rains
* At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 32 Rupees to 4901 Rupees per 100 kgs.
Ref.Soyaoil
Ref.Soyaoil yesterday settled up by 1.35% at 1128.4 ahead of a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report that is pegged to show tighter global supplies. The USDA to make further cuts to its end-of-season supply outlook for soybeans and lower its harvest views for Brazilian and Argentine soy. European Union palm oil imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July were at 3.46 million tonnes compared with 3.43 million a year ago, data published by the European Commission showed. Support also seen amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months. Government of India, lowered basic import duty on edible oils. The basic custom duty on CPO slashed from 27.5 percent to 15 percent whereas, soybean oil and sunflower oil duty is cut to 15% from 35%. The government has proposed 17.5% cess on CPO and 20% cess on crude soybean and sunflower oil, further added. The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has compiled the export data for export of oilmeals for the month of December 2020 and provisionally reported at 512,997 tons compared to 220,404 tons in December, 2019 i.e. more than doubled (133%). At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1125.65 Rupees per 10 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.38% to settled at 35200 while prices up 15 rupees, now Ref.Soya oil is getting support at 1122 and below same could see a test of 1115 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1134, a move above could see prices testing 1139.
Trading Ideas:
* Ref.Soya oil trading range for the day is 1115-1139.
* Ref soyoil prices ended with gains ahead of a USDA report that is pegged to show tighter global supplies.
* Support also seen amid higher demand for edible oils amid winter season and lower imports of Soybean oil in the recent months.
* USDA to make further cuts to its end-of-season supply outlook for soybeans and lower its harvest views for Brazilian and Argentine soy.
* At the Indore spot market in Madhya Pradesh, soyoil was steady at 1125.65 Rupees per 10 kgs.
Crude palm Oil
Crude palm Oil yesterday settled up by 1.01% at 1011.1 supported by expectations of weak January stocks and lower production. Investors are now eyeing official January supply and demand data, as well as February 1-10 export data, scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Malaysia's palm oil inventories at the end of January likely ticked up for the first time in four months, as a deep plunge in exports offset output which tumbled to near 5-year low. Stockpiles in the world's second largest producer is seen rebounding 1.75% from the previous month to 1.29 million tonnes. Malaysia's crude palm oil production, which has been suffering from flooding in parts of Malaysia and an acute labour shortage, is forecast to nosedive 13% to 1.16 million tonnes, its lowest since February 2016. End-January inventories likely rebounded 1.8% from the previous month to 1.29 million tonnes, as a deep plunge in exports offset output. European Union palm oil imports in the 2020/21 season rose to 3.38 million tonnes by Jan. 31, compared with 3.29 million a year ago, data published by the European Commission showed. Shipments to India slumped about 70%, and imports by the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils could remain tight after it imposed an additional tax on crude palm oil imports in an effort to build domestic agriculture infrastructure. In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 20.8 Rupees to end at 1012.8 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.06% to settled at 5825 while prices up 10.1 rupees, now CPO is getting support at 1005.2 and below same could see a test of 999.4 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 1019.6, a move above could see prices testing 1028.2.
Trading Ideas:
* CPO trading range for the day is 999.4-1028.2.
* Crude palm oil rose supported by expectations of weak January stocks and lower production.
* Malaysia end-Jan palm oil stocks seen rebounding as exports, output plunge
* Investors are now eyeing official January supply and demand data, as well as February 1-10 export data, scheduled to be released on Wednesday.
* In spot market, Crude palm oil gained by 20.8 Rupees to end at 1012.8 Rupees.
Mustard Seed
Mustard Seed yesterday settled up by 1.22% at 5228 as crop is delayed due to cold over northern India. New mustard arrivals will start in Uttar Pradesh's mandis. However upside seen limited as production area of the Rabi season has reached a height of 73.94 lakh hectare, which is significantly higher than last year's sowing area of 69.08 lakh hectare and the normal average area of 59.44 lakh hectare. In Rajasthan, due to excess moisture in the new crop, milling is not happening because for adulteration millers nor having old mustard crop. Earlier, the area under mustard was 69.17 lakh hectare in 2018-19 season, 67.04 lakh hectare in 2017-18, 70.67 lakh hectare in 2016-17 and 64.61 lakh hectare in 2015-16. Mustard crop is in good condition in most of the major producing states and its average yield rate and quality are expected to improve. As a result, the total production of mustard can reach a new record level. The chairman of a leading industry organization has estimated the gross production to reach 100 lakh tonnes, while the possibility of production is generally 80–90 lakh tonnes. The government (Ministry of Agriculture) has set a target of producing 125 lakh tonnes of mustard, but there is doubt about its achievement. In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6425.35 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 1.38% to settled at while prices up 63 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 5196 and below same could see a test of 5164 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5250, a move above could see prices testing 5272.
Trading Ideas:
* Rmseed trading range for the day is 5164-5272.
* Mustard seed prices gained as crop is delayed due to cold over northern India.
* New mustard arrivals will start in Uttar Pradesh's mandis.
* Production area of the Rabi season has reached a height of 73.94 lakh hectare
* In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices gained 52.15 Rupees to end at 6425.35 Rupees per 100 kg.
Turmeric
Turmeric yesterday settled up by 3.98% at 7420 as high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled prices. apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher. The arrival of dry goods in the coming days, the quality will also start to improve. The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra. The arrival of new crop on the Erode line will start in the month of March. But due to less sowing this year, the production is also less likely than last year. During the current week Erode single polished bundle in Erode Mandi was quoted at Rs 6100/6300 with a rise from Rs 5800/6000. In recent sessions, prices were up in the spot due to lack of stock and inward arrivals of new goods in the month of February-March. During the current week, the price of Gatta without polish in Warangal rose by Rs 200 to Rs 5600. While the double polished bundle was strengthened from Rs 6200 to Rs 6400. Further new goods arrived in the turmeric auction held in Sangli Mandi, Maharashtra in the beginning of the week but due to moisture and quality turmeric trade was low. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6876.45 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -4.48% to settled at 8430 while prices up 284 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 7176 and below same could see a test of 6930 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 7544, a move above could see prices testing 7666.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 6930-7666.
* Turmeric prices gained as high domestic and export demand, coupled with fears of lower output, have fuelled prices
* The arrival of new goods has started in Telangana and Sangli Mandi in Maharashtra.
* But apart from the quality of new goods being lighter, the percentage of moisture is also coming higher.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 6876.45 Rupees gained 3.55 Rupees.
Jeera
Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.52% at 13360 as arrivals of cumin have started in various mandis of Gujarat's major producing regions, but now its quantity is less and the moisture content in it is being more. The supply of good quality new crop is expected to increase from the third week of February and then its commercial activities will also pick up. The area under cultivation of cumin in Gujarat has come down from 4.88 lakh hectare in last year to 4.69 lakh hectare, but its 15.50 percent more than 4.06 lakh hectare as per Five Year Average Area. The production area of cumin in Rajasthan has increased from 6.41 lakh hectare to 6.85 lakh hectare. The weather condition is good this time in both the provinces of Gujarat and Rajasthan and till now the crop has not faced any natural disaster. The average yield rate of cumin may increase if the weather is favorable in February-March. Prices have remained largely stable due to better domestic and export demand in cumin. The total production of cumin is likely to be around last year. An average daily arrival of 10-20 bags of new cumin seeds and 30-40 bags of new fennel is coming in Unjha Mandi. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13083.35 Rupees per 100 kg. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.76% to settled at 1179 while prices up 200 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 13230 and below same could see a test of 13095 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13500, a move above could see prices testing 13635.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 13095-13635.
* Jeera prices gained as arrivals quantity is less and the moisture content in it is being more.
* The supply of good quality new crop is expected to increase from the third week of February and then its commercial activities will also pick up.
* The area under cultivation of cumin in Gujarat has come down from 4.88 lakh hectare in last year to 4.69 lakh hectare
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -40.6 Rupees to end at 13083.35 Rupees per 100 kg.
Cotton
Cotton yesterday settled up by 0.89% at 21550 as Cotton witnessed big jump in procurement in three northern states of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan. In January, 37.95 lakh bales were purchased from these three states whereas in the previous combined three months of October, November and December only 15.90 lakh bales were purchased. Cotton Association of India (CAI) retained its January estimate for the 2020-21 season output at 360 lakh bales due to more carry overstock. The total cotton production for the 2019-20 season stood at 360 lakh bales, CAI said in a statement. The cotton season runs from October to September. The total cotton supply during October 2020 to January 2021 is estimated at 386.25 lakh bales, one bale is 170 kgs, which comprises the arrivals of 255.25 lakh bales, import of cotton estimated at 6 lakh bales up to January 31, and opening stock at the beginning of the cotton season on October 1, 2020 estimated at 125 lakh bales. The Southern India Mills’ Association has sought a rollback of the 10% customs duty on cotton imports announced in the Union Budget, as it would escalate the cost of garments and result in higher import of garments, especially from countries such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. In spot market, Cotton gained by 80 Rupees to end at 21250 Rupees. Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -0.98% to settled at 6274 while prices up 190 rupees, now Cotton is getting support at 21450 and below same could see a test of 21340 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 21630, a move above could see prices testing 21700.
Trading Ideas:
* Cotton trading range for the day is 21340-21700.
* Cotton prices gained as Cotton witnessed big jump in procurement
* CAI retained its January estimate for the 2020-21 season output at 360 lakh bales due to more carry overstock.
* The Southern India Mills’ Association has sought a rollback of the 10% customs duty on cotton imports announced in the Union Budget
* In spot market, Cotton gained by 80 Rupees to end at 21250 Rupees.
Chana
Chana yesterday settled up by 0.15% at 4644 on short covering after prices dropped as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states. Old gram selling remains normal, keeping prices under pressure. In absence for the new crop, millers are buying gram as per need. During the Rabi season this year, about 112 lakh hectare area has been sown in the gram producing states, which was in 107.30 lakh hectare last year. Weather friendly is likely to increase productivity. Prices are running lower than MSP. The challenge of buying gram will be in front of the government. Selling of chana at the port was seen better. Chana arrivals are increasing in the mandis of Maharashtra. The pressure of new crop arrivals was seen on the markets. From next month, arrival of gram will also start in Rajasthan. In Australia due to the growth in the sowing area and favorable conditions of weather and rainfall, during the current marketing season of 2020-21, there are signs of a significant increase in the production of all the major pulses including gram, lentils, peas and faba beans etc. This time harvesting and preparation of the crop started a little late. As per sources except for parts of Queensland, all other major pulses growing areas of the country received good rainfall at the right time. In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4612 Rupees per 100 kgs. Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 0.49% to settled at while prices up 7 rupees, now Chana is getting support at 4624 and below same could see a test of 4603 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 4669, a move above could see prices testing 4693.
Trading Ideas:
* Chana trading range for the day is 4603-4693.
* Chana gained on short covering after prices dropped as the arrival of new gram is increasing gradually in the producing states.
* Old gram selling remains normal, keeping prices under pressure.
* In absence for the new crop, millers are buying gram as per need.
* In Delhi spot market, chana dropped by -35.4 Rupees to end at 4612 Rupees per 100 kgs.
