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Gold

Gold yesterday settled down by -0.86% at 58950 amid better-than-expected employment data. The U.S. labor market shows continued strength as the number of workers applying for first-time unemployment benefits continues to decline. The U.S. Labor Department said that weekly jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 221,000 for the week ending July 22, down from the previous week's unrevised estimate of 228,000 claims. The latest labor market data came in stronger than expected. The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points, a ninth consecutive rate hike, saying inflation is still expected to remain too high for too long despite the recent slowdown. This brought the rate on main refinancing operations to 4.25%, the highest since October 2008, and the rate on the deposit facility to an over 22-year high of 3.75%. The ECB has also committed to following a "data-dependent approach" to future rate decisions and said that rates would be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to bring inflation back to its 2% target. The Eurozone economy has been showing signs of weakness while inflation remains almost 3 times above the target. Policymakers noted that inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -36.16% to settle at 2636 while prices are down -511 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 58566 and below same could see a test of 58183 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 59506, a move above could see prices testing 60063.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 58183-60063.
* Gold dropped amid better-than-expected employment data.
* U.S. labor market shows continued strength as the number of workers applying for first-time unemployment benefits continues to decline
* ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points, saying inflation is still expected to remain too high for too long despite the recent slowdown.


Silver
Silver yesterday settled down by -2.09% at 73747 as hot economic data strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September, increasing the opportunity cost to hold non-interest-bearing precious metals. Data showed the U.S. economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter as labor market resilience underpinned consumer spending. The US GDP expanded by 2.4% in the second quarter of 2023, well above market expectations of a 1.8% increase. A separate report from the Labor Department showing initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000 for the week ended July 22. The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield climbed to 3.90%. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Markets priced in 57% odds of the Fed holding rates for the rest of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates for the ninth consecutive time on Thursday and kept the door open to further tightening. Federal Reserve raised its funds rate by 25bps to 5.5%, as widely expected by markets, and kept the door for future rate hikes open. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -16.46% to settle at 14845 while prices are down -1577 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 72615 and below same could see a test of 71484 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 75512, a move above could see prices testing 77278.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 71484-77278.
* Silver dropped as hot economic data strengthened the case for Fed to raise interest rates in September
* Dollar index hits over two-week peak
* US economic growth accelerates in second quarter


Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled up by 1.37% at 6562 amid prospect of tighter global supply and a rebound in Chinese demand supported the market. Oil prices have rallied more than 10% this month due to voluntary output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as indications from OPEC+ of its willingness to take further action. Chinese authorities also pledged to step up policy support to shore up the economy, bolstering the outlook for the world’s top crude importer. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, stoking concerns about overall demand. The European Central Bank is also expected to tighten policy further on Thursday and signal further rate increases amid persistent inflation. U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories fell by 600,000 barrels in the last week to 456.8 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 2.3 million-barrel drop. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 2.6 million barrels in the last week, EIA said. Refinery crude runs fell by 107,000 barrels per day in the last week, EIA said. U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 786,000 barrels in the week to 217.6 million barrels, the EIA said. Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 20.62% to settle at 11549 while prices are up 89 rupees, now Crude oil is getting support at 6492 and below same could see a test of 6422 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 6625, a move above could see prices testing 6688.

Trading Ideas:
* Crude oil trading range for the day is 6422-6688.
* Crude oil gains amid prospect of tighter global supply.
* Support also seen due to voluntary output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as indications from OPEC+ of its willingness to take further action.
* Crude inventories fell by 600,000 barrels in the last week to 456.8 million barrels

Natural Gas

Nat.Gas yesterday settled down by -4.2% at 212.2 on forecasts for less demand and less hot weather over the next two weeks than previously expected. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 101.0 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 101.8 bcfd in May. Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 104.7 bcfd this week to 105.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than Refinitiv's outlook. US utilities added 16 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage during the week that ended July 21, 2023, less than market expectations of a 19 bcf increase. That compares with an increase of 18 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2018-2022) average increase of 31 bcf. Last week's increase brought stockpiles to 2.987 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 573 bcf higher than last year and 345 bcf above the five-year average of 2.642 bcf. At 2.987 tcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 37.66% to settle at 43672 while prices are down -9.3 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 208.1 and below same could see a test of 204.1 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 218.8, a move above could see prices testing 225.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Natural gas trading range for the day is 204.1-225.5.
* Natural gas dropped on forecasts for less demand and less hot weather.
* US natural gas stocks rise less than expected: EIA
* US utilities added 16 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage d


Copper

Copper yesterday settled down by -0.42% at 735.2 as demand for imported copper into China has been declining, implied by the Yangshan copper premium dropping to a more than two-month low of $34.50 a metric ton. The discount for copper for nearby delivery on the London Metal Exchange over the three-month contract has jumped to a two-month peak after a surge in stocks available to the market in LME-registered warehouses. The discount – or contango – for cash copper over the three-month contract climbed to $40.25 a metric tonne, its highest in two months. That compared to a premium or backwardation of $31 around a month ago, when large amounts of inventory were earmarked to leave the LME system and pushed the available or on-warrant copper stocks in LME warehouses to the lowest levels since October 2021. The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) lowered its forecast for the average copper price in 2023 to $3.85 per pound amid doubts about international economic performance. "The copper price forecast adjustment for this year is due to several factors, one of which is uncertainty regarding China's economic growth," Cochilco said in a statement. It also estimates that the global market will close with a copper surplus of around 130,000 metric tons this year. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 4.72% to settle at 4528 while prices are down -3.1 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 730.3 and below same could see a test of 725.5 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 742.8, a move above could see prices testing 750.5.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 725.5-750.5.
* Copper dropped as demand for imported copper into China has been declining
* The discount for copper for nearby delivery on LME has jumped to a two-month peak
* Chile's Cochilco cuts 2023 copper price forecast to $3.85/pound

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by -0.43% at 218.05 after strong U.S. data left investors worrying whether interest rates had peaked as hoped, while worries persisted about lacklustre demand in China. Global refined zinc supply is expected to increase by 1.9%, considering a low base year and as energy costs in Europe ease, while power curbs in China limit zinc smelter production. However, downside seen limited amid hopes of a recovery in Chinese demand. Beijing has pledged to provide further support to boost growth with a focus on expanding domestic demand, while it has also unveiled measures to support private investment and develop underdeveloped areas in megacities. Looking ahead, S&P Global predicts a modest 1.4% growth in global refined zinc demand for 2023, as both the US and Europe continue to grapple with inflation and tight monetary policies. The global zinc market surplus slipped to 53,000 metric tons in May, down from 64,000 tons a month earlier, data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) showed. During the first five months of 2023, ILZSG data showed a surplus of 267,000 metric tons, versus a surplus of 189,000 tons in the same period of 2022. China's top leaders signalled there would be more to come for the property sector that consumes a vast amount of metals. Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -8.34% to settle at 3440 while prices are down -0.95 rupees, now Zinc is getting support at 216.3 and below same could see a test of 214.6 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 221.2, a move above could see prices testing 224.4.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 214.6-224.4.
* Zinc dropped after strong U.S. data left investors worrying
* Global refined zinc supply is expected to increase by 1.9%.
* The global zinc market surplus slipped to 53,000 metric tons in May, down from 64,000 tons a month earlier


Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by -0.15% at 198.25 as worries persisted about lacklustre demand in China. Also weighing on metals was more downbeat data from China, the world's biggest metals consumer, with policymakers yet to release more detail on stimulus measures to fulfil recent pledges. China's industrial profits extended this year's double-digit declines in June as waning demand took a toll on profit margins. Global primary aluminium output rose by 1.8% year-on-year to 34.212 million metric tons in the first half of 2023 mainly due to higher production in China, data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed. The data indicates that energy-intensive production of the metal, used in transportation, construction and packaging, remains subdued in Europe after last year's energy crisis and is probably under pressure in sanctions-hit Russia. China's estimated production rose by 2.8% to 20.250 million metric tons in January-June, the IAI said. Aluminium output in Western and Central Europe which was hit by a jump in energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 is yet to recover, the region produced 1.345 million metric tons, down 9.2%. The world economy is expected to expand by 3% in 2023, which has been revised upwards from the April assessment's 2.8% growth, according to the latest update of the IMF's World Economic Outlook. Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 3.78% to settle at 3870 while prices are down -0.3 rupees, now Aluminium is getting support at 197.3 and below same could see a test of 196.2 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 199.8, a move above could see prices testing 201.2.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 196.2-201.2.
* Aluminium dropped as worries persisted about lacklustre demand in China.
* Also weighing on metals was more downbeat data from China
* China's industrial profits extended this year's double-digit declines in June

Mentha oil

Mentha oil yesterday settled up by 0.11% at 893.7 on low level buying after prices dropped amid rise in supplies of new crop. Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up. Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition. Moreover, reports of slack export of menthol will put pressure on prices. Rising menthol imports, as well as China's limited purchasing, will put pressure on pricing. Mentha exports during Apr-May 2023, dropped by 51.60 percent to 183.98 tonnes as compared to 380.12 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 97.85 tonnes in April 2023 showing a drop of 13.60%. In May 2023 around 86.13 tonnes of Mentha was exported as against 209.90 tonnes in May 2022 showing a drop of 58.96%. Many states have seen gutkha and pan masala ban which have seen a lower demand from the pan masala industry. The production of Mentha oil was historically high in 2020-21, the area remained almost similar last year but the yields were lower which affected the production. In the current year, production to fall to around 46,238 MT due to sharp fall in area and loss in yields following severe summer heat. which will come closed 14% down in the year 20-21. In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained by 4.4 Rupees to end at 1031.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.Technically market is under fresh buying as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 0.66% to settle at 921 while prices are up 1 rupees, now Mentha oil is getting support at 890.5 and below same could see a test of 887.3 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 896.9, a move above could see prices testing 900.1.

Trading Ideas:
* Mentha oil trading range for the day is 887.3-900.1.
* In Sambhal spot market, Mentha oil gained  by 4.4 Rupees to end at 1031.5 Rupees per 360 kgs.
* Menthaoil gained on low level buying after prices dropped amid rise in supplies of new crop.
* Supplies have increased in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar as harvesting activities has picked up.
* Production prospects have improved with rising yield supported by favorable weather condition.

Turmeric

Turmeric yesterday settled down by -0.1% at 13936 dropped on profit booking after prices gained driven by consistent demand from the domestic market and export. Moreover, farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage and also lower ending stocks, resulting in a supply shortage in the cash markets. The kharif sowing acreage is expected to decrease during the current season. In Maharashtra, the sowing area is projected to decline by 10%-20%. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the acreage is expected to decrease by 10%-15%. In Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, there is an anticipated decline of 18%-22% in the acreage compared to the previous season. Support also seen as the untimely rains that occurred in various places in the Andhra Pradesh damaged turmeric crops causing huge loss to the farmers. Turmeric exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 27.55 percent at 39,418.73 tonnes as compared to 30,903.38 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%. In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 17,138.35 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 15.69%. In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 12619.65 Rupees gained 227.75 Rupees.Technically market is under long liquidation as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -3.66% to settle at while prices are down -14 rupees, now Turmeric is getting support at 13592 and below same could see a test of 13248 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 14210, a move above could see prices testing 14484.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13248-14484.
* Turmeric dropped dropped on profit booking after prices gained driven by consistent demand and supply shortage
* Farmers and stockists are holding onto their stocks in anticipation of price increases due to lower sowing acreage
* In May 2023 around 19,827.86 tonnes of turmeric was exported as against 19,590.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 1.21%.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market in AP, the price ended at 12619.65 Rupees gained 227.75 Rupees.

Jeera

Jeera yesterday settled up by 1.25% at 59655 as arrivals in Gujarat and Rajasthan have decreased due to heavy rainfall. Farmers need assistance to bring their produce to the market. However, after the rains subside, cumin arrivals are expected to increase, potentially impacting market dynamics. Support also seen due to good export demand and expectations of lower stocks end of the current marketing year. Prices rose on crop worries grow due to unseasonal rains and hailstorms in Rajasthan, the major producing state. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons. According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 percent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -600.3 Rupees to end at 60762.25 Rupees per 100 kg.Technically market is under short covering as the market has witnessed a drop in open interest by -4.74% to settle at while prices are up 735 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 58580 and below same could see a test of 57500 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 60520, a move above could see prices testing 61380.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 57500-61380.
* Jeera prices gains as arrivals decreased due to heavy rainfall.
* Traders are avoiding bulk buying in anticipation of rise in seasonal supply of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan.
* The market is expecting a lower yield and quality of jeera this season
* In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -600.3 Rupees to end at 60762.25 Rupees per 100 kg.

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