Tur Demand Supply Price Trend Analysis 07 Jan 2022 By Origo Commodities India Pvt. Ltd
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Overview
* Tur imports has increased substantially due to free import regime this year from May to December. Meanwhile, Govt. extended the deadline for free imports of moong, tur and urad till 31st March 2022.
* Major origins of imports were Myanmar (30%), Tanzania (26%), Mozambique (24%), Sudan (13%) and Malawi (6%).
* Price Outlook: Considering the above fundamentals, Tur Akola prices would trade in the range of Rs. 6308 to Rs. 6508 per quintal. Tur Gulbarga would trade in the range of Rs. 6350 to Rs. 6650 per quintal in the coming days. However, imports flow would cap the aggressive spike in the domestic prices.
TUR TO TRADE WEAK IN COMING DAYS, BUT LONG TERM VIEW REMAIN STRONG
Tur prices in Akola and Gulbarga traded up by 2% and 4.8% respectively over previous week due to lower arrivals.
India Tur Imports Destination-wise
Key Factors
* Lower Production: Tur production in India is estimated to be lower by 8.5% y-o-y to 32.8 Lakh MT due to fall in yield by 13% y-o-y. Major decline in yield was noticed in Karnataka & Maharashtra due to excess rains.
* Govt. Procurement: NAFED tur procurement target is 8 Lakh MT this year. Procurement from Karnataka would be 2.5 lakh MT and from Maharashtra would be 2.71 lakh MT and remaining from other states.
* Imports: Tur imports during Apr-21 to Nov-21 period was 4.79 Lakh MT Vs 1.71 Lakh MT same period last year, up 178% y-o-y. It is expected that Tur imports would touch 6.5 MMT till Mar-22.
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