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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

* The US dollar edged lower yesterday as traders pared bets on how aggressive Fed would be in raising rates. Two of the Fed officials had signalled that they would likely to stick with a 75 bps rate increase in upcoming meeting. However, sharp downside was cushioned on decline in US stock markets and rise in US treasury yields

* Rupee future maturing on July 27 depreciated by 0.15% yesterday amid surge in crude oil prices and concerns over possible recession in US

* The rupee is expected to depreciate today amid risk aversion in the global markets, rise in crude oil prices and persistent FII outflows. Market sentiments are hurt as economic growth is showing signs of slowing while inflation is soaring. Meanwhile, central banks across the major countries are raising interest rates rapidly adding another cloud on economy’s horizon. US$INR (July) is expected to trade in a range of 79.85-80.30

Dollar Index Vs US$INR

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