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Rupee Outlook

• The US dollar declined by 0.35% on Friday in quiet holiday trading and absence of any major economic data. However, a sharp fall was prevented on risk aversion in the global markets. The dollar ended 2021 on a strong note gaining nearly 7% on hopes the US Fed will hike rates sooner than its peers

• Rupee future maturing on January 27 appreciated by 0.10% on weakness in the dollar and rise in risk appetite in the domestic markets. Further, rupee gained strength on FII inflows. However, sharp gains were prevented as investors remained vigilant ahead of economic data from the country

• The rupee is expected to depreciate on disappointing economic data from the country and muted domestic market. India’s current account balance posted deficit of 1.3% of GDP in Q2 FY22 compared to surplus of 0.9% of GDP in the preceding quarter. Further, the rupee may slip on persistent FII outflows and higher crude oil prices. US$INR (January) is expected to trade in a range of 74.50-74.90

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