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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

* The US dollar index extended Tuesday’s gain amid strong labour market data. US ADP employment numbers and JOLTS job openings indicated strength in the job market. The February ADP employment numbers rose 242,000 against forecast of 119,000. Meanwhile, the upside in the rally got restricted after the Fed chair said,” the FOMC has not made any decision about the pace of rate hikes at the March meeting” and will not do so until they see the upcoming data

* The rupee future maturing on March 28 depreciated to 82.12 amid a rise in the dollar index

* The rupee is expected to depreciate amid risk aversion in global markets and rally in the dollar index. Now, the CME Fedwatch toll, suggests the probability of a 50 basis point hike in the federal funds target has increased to 77% compared to yesterday’s 70%. US$INR is expected to hold the key 100 day EMA support at 81.80 and rise towards 82.20-82.25

Euro and Pound Outlook

* The US dollar index extended Tuesday’s gain amid strong labour market data. US ADP employment numbers and JOLTS job openings indicated strength in the job market. The February ADP employment numbers rose 242,000 against forecast of 119,000. Meanwhile, the upside in the rally got restricted after the Fed chair said,” the FOMC has not made any decision about the pace of rate hikes at the March meeting” and will not do so until they see the upcoming data

* The rupee future maturing on March 28 depreciated to 82.12 amid a rise in the dollar index

* The rupee is expected to depreciate amid risk aversion in global markets and rally in the dollar index. Now, the CME Fedwatch toll, suggests the probability of a 50 basis point hike in the federal funds target has increased to 77% compared to yesterday’s 70%. US$INR is expected to hold the key 100 day EMA support at 81.80 and rise towards 82.20-82.25

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