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Rupee Outlook and Strategy

• The US dollar index edged lower despite of upbeat economic data from country. New orders for US manufactured durable goods jumped 1.7% MoM in May 2023, following an upwardly revised 1.2% rise in April and easily beating market expectations of a 1% decline. It marks a third straight month of rising durable goods orders. Further, US Consumer confidence increased in June to highest level in nearly 1-1/2 year and home sales rose more than expected 12.2% in May

• The rupee future maturing on July appreciated marginally by 0.03% on Tuesday amid weak US dollar and uptick in domestic equity markets

• The rupee is likely to appreciate today amid optimistic domestic market sentiments. Further, India’s CAD narrowed in the last quarter owing to moderation in trade gap and increase in services exports. Meanwhile, investors will closely watch Fed Chair Powell speech for further cues on rate trajectory. US$INR is likely to trade in downward trend towards the level of 81.95

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